Friday, July 03, 2009

on relationships

ON RELATIONSHIPS

Great, just what you wanted. An even deeper look at my dysfunctional mind. I share this with you for a variety of reasons. First, Friday is a work holiday. We get the 4th off and since it falls on the weekend we have the 3rd as the paid holiday. I won’t be working through lunch, just the first two hours so I can pick up end of the week food donations. I’m writing this Thursday night and felt the extra time would do justice to the subject. Which ties in with the second reason. I don’t wish to be misunderstood and hope to explain a lot of the reasons behind a lot of my rationales. I can elaborate some of my otherwise flippant, off the cuff remarks. Last, I hope this might help some in their decision making. When I say something like, dump the wife if she won’t buy into prepping, it isn’t that cut and dried of a decision. I admit that the only thing worse than being homeless is being alone and homeless. But if the relationship is already in trouble and most likely can’t be salvaged, it is as good as any a reason for ending the relationship. Perhaps by explaining some of my failures you can see the direction of your marriage and make the needed actions. Not to single out one example for any particular reason other than a selective memory, one writer was hounded by his readers for his on and off struggle to end his marriage. It wasn’t weakness or indecision but the natural reluctance to end a relationship. Who likes to be alone? Especially with hard times coming. Teams can weather the storm easier. Yet when the spouse is reluctant to get on board preparing it becomes a dilemma. I hope this article helps when you are faced with this problem. I never ended a marriage because of the prepping reluctance, but it played a role and made it easier.
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I don’t hate women. And I don’t hate marriage. I love both. Women have natural strengths men need, and visa versa. Women are very pragmatic. Which is both good and bad. When a group has problems getting along, pragmatism leads to politics on the women’s part. To smooth relations. You see a two faced lady who hates another behind her back and is all smiles and kisses to her face. It isn’t being a lying politician, it is getting along with others for group harmony. Men have difficulty with that kind of relationship. On the minus side, despite all the talk of romantic love a women will fall out of love with someone or in love with them for practical reasons ( and women rag on men for only loving them for sex, which is a bit unfair ). Pragmatism is also a survival trait. They do what they must to ensure their offspring get what they need. Men have a hard time getting past logic and idealism. I don’t dislike marriage. I think it is great which is why I tried it four times. It is absolutely vital for raising children. And for mental well being. I am totally against single parents, although I have a hard time placing blame on its practitioners in today’s cultural and political realities. Children need a couple to raise them. My problem with marriage is how it is done today.
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Everyone wants to marry for love, not necessity. They think that love will solve all problems of necessity. Yet, when those are not achievable the relationship will end. Both parties suffer, and the children suffer. If you married for necessity and let love happen later you would be pleasantly surprised later, rather than shocked and dismayed at a later date. I’m not discounting love at first, or instant attraction. I am saying that you shouldn’t follow up on it unless you meet each other needs and expectations first. The old school could be a little harsh and unromantic. She wanted/needed security, a provider. He wants sex. Sex is not all that crazy of a need. The male has enough hormones to impregnate the whole village. By satisfying that need, the wife assures the male stays with her and raises the children. And even if adultery laws seemed to unfairly benefit the male, it had a very real benefit. A man won’t as readily agree to nurture and support offspring unless he knows they are his. And because a women is pragmatic, she knows about the male sexual drive and the need to satisfy it. That is why you have great newlywed sex. Well, today premarital sex is normal, so you get plenty until you get married. So I have a hard time believing a sharp drop in sex is anything other than the female acknowledging the reality that she is rewarded with a provider without any responsibility on her part.
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I don’t think that women should be subservient to men, nor that men are entitled to as much sex as they desire. I do think that an unwillingness on the part of the female should be viewed as a disinterest in the relationship however. A man must continue to provide protection and sustenance to his partner and offspring regardless of desire. So why should a female be given free reign to deny sex according to her desire? Or to put it rudely, the man must bring home the bacon so why should the female be allowed to remain frigid? A relationship is a mutual struggle and should constitute sacrifice on both parties. If a husband is working hard to please his wife, shouldn’t the wife do the same? And, to stay in the current required romantic viewpoint, it has been my experience that once sex drops past a certain point, the love is pretty much shot. No one expects the physical attraction to stay white hot forever, but the female usually needs to expect her drive to fall faster and compensate for that.
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Now, on to my favorite subject. Hating wife #2. I know a lot of you have a hard time buying into my viewpoint that she is pure evil, a minion of Lucifer. You think it is sour grapes, that I begrudge the child support I pay. I don’t begrudge supporting my children, if there was a need. But I put the ex through flight school and she makes enough being a pilot that she has no need of my money other than an extravagant lifestyle. She bleeds me financially simply out of spite, to punish me. She didn’t want me after a point, but I must be punished because I didn’t want her. I don’t even begrudge the money as it is used as a bribe to stay in touch with my kids. I simply think it is wrong to be paying a disproportionate share of my income. If women want total equality they should be shouldering equal responsibility. No, my hatred goes beyond just money. I don’t care that much about money past a certain point of providing basic needs. That is why I value less stress for less pay. I hate her for trying to totally ruin my life. Because money means everything to her, she thinks she is doing me great harm by taking most of mine. But that wasn’t enough for her. She had to do much more.
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What I’m going to share is a bit embarrassing. I wouldn’t bring it up if it didn’t illustrate a point so well. We had tried to get back together several times. I realized I had given up on my kids too easily. That I had been so selfish I wanted out of the relationship and didn’t just give in to her and her demands to stay with my kids. I was feeling guilty. I’m not denying I played a large role in our breakup. Perhaps it was mostly my fault. But I did try again after realizing my mistake. I kept trying, not realizing there was too much water under the bridge. On our last attempt to repair and restart, we made glorious promises to each other and things were okay for about a week. They quickly went to crap of course. On one glorious night, oral sex was offered. Not something she had ever been wild about and the last attempt still brought the total count under one hands worth of fingers ( ladies, I’m not trying to be gross- I have a point here ). Well, wife always had had cold sores. Don’t kiss me right now dear, I have a cold sore. Can you guess what comes next? I get genital herpes within the week. I know it wasn’t from another partner so I can only conclude this was a deliberate assault. Not only did it give her an excuse to once again dump me, now I had a double stigma against me. I was dirt poor and had an STD. Go on about your life now, chump. Good luck finding another mate with those two strikes against you. Yes, it did short circuit a lot of dates from becoming relationships. But I was always forthcoming to a potential partner and in ten years of marriage to #4, I never passed it on to her. Like I said, a bit embarrassing, but it does point out why I hate the ex so much.
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I could go on and on about #2. I’m almost positive she cheated on me, for instance. But I think the above example speaks for the record. But it didn’t make me hate women or marriage. I might be a little less lenient towards shenanigans. I might be a bit quicker to end a relationship once I think the sex barometer points towards a falling out of love on her part. I might be harsher towards other peoples problems putting up with their spouse. But I still hate being alone. I still think relationships are a natural and desired state. I still think culturally our relationships are conducted wrong. I don’t think women are chattel, and should be forced into bed against their will. But I do think a healthy relationship means you make your man happy, even if your desires aren’t always in sync. Just as Unions once helped exploited workers but then overreached with too much power, I think Women’s Lib was once necessary but now does more harm to families than it helps women. I might be old fashioned in some ways, but it serves a good purpose. It strengthens marriage and families. And pointing out that women’s lib is dead after a collapse just means we go back to a more pragmatic way for raising families and keeping marriages strong enough to provide the time honored support structure prior to the government welfare state. Lifetime marriages, three generational families under one roof, etc. You would think females would approve, once the PC blinders of FemiNazism are removed.
END
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Thursday, July 02, 2009

it's only trees

IT'S ONLY TREES
My old Army buddy recently reminded me of one of my old quips, "it's only trees" ( actually it could have been, "it's just trees", but no matter ). While I had no recollection of having uttered such a profound statement I'm willing to believe I said something so grand. What can I say, I consumed a lot of alcohol back then. In other words, you might as well spend it because it is only worthless paper. I know you don't give me the love that is due me, so refer to your hero Rawles for the same message, get out of paper and into tangibles.
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The great thing about paper currency is that in two weeks you will be getting more of it. But they certainly are not making more land, the inventory of war surplus rifles is fixed. Evidently they aren't making much more ammunition. It is just a matter of time before most Chinese imports dry up. Already, they have raised in price and fallen in quality ( for the cheap stuff, as they cut back on rising material costs ). Since we shipped all our factories over there, sometime soon we won't have affordable underwear/socks/shoes/vitamins anymore. To say nothing of the dangers of holding cash and having hyperinflation kick its butt. Obviously you need a little bit of cash cushion for emergencies, but you should be converting most of your cash to prep supplies. Not because the likelihood of suddenly collapse tomorrow is all that great but because the value of money is falling and the scarcity of all goods is going to rise and soon.
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For a variety of reasons, grain prices doubled. And they never fell again ( okay, rice did, but not the staples of the US diet, wheat and corn ). Every year produce prices rise. Energy prices rise. Metal is now an ever increasing commodity. The supply of salt water fish has crashed. Auto prices are insane. Even with a thirty to fifty percent equity fall, real estate prices are still too high ( inflation met massive immigration for the bubble ). Everything is rising in price or pricing itself out of your ability to purchase. Stop dithering and just buy. Buy the junk land, even if it only becomes a crappy vacation spot. Buy some kind of shelter if needed. Buy your arms and ammo. Stock up on your grains and beans. I can't imagine much not going up in price substantially very soon. Junk land might fall some before hyperinflation kicks in, mainly because people won't have shelter and so compete for whats already here. I imagine for a time it will be harder to find a cheap room to rent than it will be to find junk land. Already you can buy some that is cheaper than two months rent for a room ( Elko has rooms no cheaper than $400 a month and you can buy land as cheap as $700 after E-Bay fees ).
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I wouldn't bet against the economy though. Buy what you will need now, don't take a chance on sudden price hikes or unavailability. Even if you never use a lot in west Texas or a thousand pounds of corn or two thousand ammo primers, it is simply a form of insurance. They might not be for sale in two weeks, but you will get another paycheck. I don't know what the normal thought process is for most people. But I never sweat an old paycheck. I over think every purchase, but once I've spent the money I never have any regrets over spending it. Because it's only trees. More is coming. Investment or blow money, I don't add it all up and wish I had done something different. I kind of look at relationships the same way. Even if I just spent one, two or ten years with one person, I don't look at that as relationship equity. #4 would argue "we've been together ten years, we have to make it work". I reply it hasn't worked for five of those and I ain't sticking around for any more years. Money is the same. No matter how much you have wasted, it isn't worth throwing good after bad. So what if you have ten years payments into the house. If it ain't worth another twenty in payments, jingle mail it. I've read about military personnel getting out of the service after eighteen years just to deny a spouse half of their retirement pay. I agree with that totally. Tomorrow is the first day of the rest of your life. Don't be tied to the past if it ain't working. Don't worry about your last paycheck, worry about your next one.
*
It might seem I'm kind of mixing my Aesop's Fables here. Basic point, you are running out of time to prepare. Jettison past investments that haven't worked ( anything paper or promises-stocks, retirement promises, home value, corporate job ) or soon won't work, buy your tangibles now even if you never use them. Even if they are a waste, it is such a cheap healthy sleeping pill. You might think I'm a total paranoid, tossing and turning in my sleep worrying about how many ways we are all going to die. No, I sleep good. Once you have your basic necessities it is hard to get worked up about much. Oh, I'll think differently once I'm running from cannibal hoards. Then I'll wish I had fortified concrete and squad automatic weapons. Until then, even though I worry I don't let it effect my health because I have my security blanket. Even if I'm wrong and we don't collapse for ten years, so what. Be ready now just in case. Then you can stop worrying. Be like the Chinese, hurriedly changing worthless American dollars for commodity stockpiles.
END

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

homeless test

HOMELESS TEST
The Three Day Test is one of those things we as preppers are supposed to do to test our readiness. You turn off the power for an extended weekend and find out all the stuff you are doing wrong and what areas need improving. I just saw a TV commercial for a new series about eight houses in a neighborhood being cut off from the outside world, no power or Web or TV. I have no idea what they are going to do. I imagine it is going to be like Big Brother, hot young twenty somethings with impossibly fit bodies all acting like sluts. Apparently the viewing audience doesn't get enough of being constantly in rut themselves. But this time they must be doing all that by candlelight. Of course, this kind of reminds me of that short lived jerk off about the town being populated just by kids. Except for all the adult TV crew of course. So here we have no electricity, but all the cameras are in operation. One long extension cord? Anyway, I don't know if the test is going mainstream but at least perhaps the idea has.
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I don't need to do this test myself, being off grid. You all laugh at me for living like a Third World peasant, eating corn meal gruel and scrounging through the dump for something to recycle to China. But at least I'll still have power to my hut when the rest of you sit in the dark, unable to find your SUV car keys ( look, Obammy gave us a discount to buy this pant load, now it only cost half what my house did! ). But let's advance past the three day test. That only measures how well you can weather bad weather, see if you can get by with a short grid down. How about testing to see how you will live once you are homeless. Or, even just testing to see how you will live on only one income instead of two. You can do a lot by making lists and alternate budgets and having planning sessions. But you can't foresee what is going to come up unexpectedly unless you actually play it out in real world.
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If you own an RV ( or, rent one if you are thinking of buying ), how about taking it to the closest parking spot you won't be bothered in and live there a week. Go back and forth from there to work so you don't need to take a vacation. Don't cheat by taking extra propane tanks and having the freezer overflowing with steaks you can BBQ. Take hard to prepare meals that are also harder to clean up from such as rice and chili, perhaps even try to grind corn and beans. Try to use solar ovens instead of propane. Don't bring extra clothes, do your laundry there. You'll get a good idea of the bickering, the overuse of power and propane, the water waste, the inability to have sex with the kids three feet away ( not that you would get any anyway cause the wife is not going to like your idea of a vacation ). You'll find out how hard it is to get the kids to play the board game you brought after the TV antenna only picks up one channel, or it is raining all day or some idiot drains the batteries after playing video games all day.
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Since most of you married high maintenance princesses, you don't own an RV. They wouldn't be seen dead in a tin box. I know you still think you are getting a good deal, sex four times a month for all your paycheck, all of your free time and no friends allowed except on spouse approved Superbowl game day. I'm not judging, I was once there myself ( except I only got it twice a month so I was twice the fool ). How you are going to get her highness to try out this test in a car, van or tent escapes my imagination. You'll be lucky to try out the three day test. Perhaps if you are doubling up with friends in a regular house you can get by with this. Most of you most likely won't try, since that means giving up one if not two of your monthly allotted bootie calls. If you can't go anywhere ( but dear, we are paying a mortgage/rent. Why should we leave unless we are going on vacation in a hotel? ), at least try to extend the three day test to a week. I imagine it would be more realistic.
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I had game planned my grid escape for years. I had worked out as many details as I could. Remember, all of those books of mine on off grid living were written in a van parked in a driveway. I was practicing off grid, but I still had in town shopping and supply as a prop. When I moved miles out of town I still had an adjustment period where I learned new things and had to rethink others. I had lived in a van for five months. Prior to that I had lived in an RV for years without hot water. I thought I had experienced all I needed. But the first few weeks off grid and away from town was still a new learning experience. You will need to experience for yourself a reduced living arrangement. Otherwise you can't plan properly. Or, just ignore the impending collapse, because after all we are Americans and super special and won't repeat history and we can wallow in luxury forever and nothing bad will happen to our Yuppie reality.
END

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

common caliber

COMMON CALIBER
I love weapons myself. A closet full of food gives you a nice security blanket, and a rifle with sufficient ammunition adds wonderfully to that. It is hard to get too worked up about very many things with those tools providing the basic necessities ( yada, yada, blah, blah, I include water purification or storage in with food, so don't have a kitten on me please ). Yet, I never have too much to say on the subject. You buy your war surplus rifle, its ammo, a couple of bayonets and if you are old and have bad eyes you add a scope. Not too much else to say on the subject. I have a Lee reloader and bullet mold and a butt load of primers. And I don't do gunsmithing. Again, not a lot of subject matter there. I prefer to talk about food. To me it is a much more important topic. Yes, you need weapons to defend your food but you also can't get many calories from an M-16 magazine. However, I am such a friggin nice guy that Baby Jesus himself has dropped a lot of hints my way that I'm his favorite. So I try to give my loyal minions what they want and occasionally yak away about something weapons related. Last week I bought a copy of Backwoods Home Magazine, since the new copy of Backwoodsman hasn't come out yet and I was Jonesing. I much prefer Man to Home but obviously I had $6 burning a hole in my pocket so I bought the damn thing. Their article on the ammo drought inspired this article.
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I've always hated the article of faith amongst survivalist that you simply must have military and common calibers for your arsenal. This should come as no surprise to you since I find almost nothing that is militarily useful carries over to survivalists. I won't rehash those, to your obvious relief. A round simply needs to be effective. Granted, it shouldn't be so obsolete and scarce that you need to spend a lot of money having a specialty shop fabricate the cases, but to parrot what is most popular isn't necessary. I wouldn't carry 9mm. And the only good I see the .223 serving is for a medium distance sniper harassment round. It makes a great assault round, but I don't plan on being that close if I can help it. And if I'm not that close, I don't need semi-automatic. So then I don't need a .308 either. I'm just fine with a .38/.357 in revolver and any thirty caliber for rifle.
*
The recent drought in ammunition should underscore the need to be slightly different and not carry what everyone else does. It stands to reason that if every Joe Blow wants to stockpile ammunition in case Uncle Obammy bans all guns or if the economy finally does the final revolution around the toilet bowl before going down the pipe that if everyone is after 308 and 45 than you have a much better chance finding 303 and 38. Duh. But wait, you scream in righteous indignation as you caress your AR-15 against your crotch, if you capture the enemies ammunition you need to use it in your weapon ( or get more ammo for his weapon you took ). That worked great for the freedom fighters in Afghanistan in the 80's as they traded in their much better Lee-Enfields for inferior AK's. Personally I think it was more a status symbol thing for them. Look, Habeeb, I am a mighty superior warrior and I personally killed a Soviet and took his weapon ( he doesn't mention that he peacefully traded the infidel alcohol for the carbine ). I have a hard time believing you would want to trade in a long range rifle you used growing up for an unfamiliar poodle shooter. Surely Pakistan could provide them all the 303 ammo they needed. But, let's just take it at face value and call it enemy supply.
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The problem is that the military is most likely facing a worse resupply problem than the survivalist. Our friendly prepper has oodles and gobs of ammunition plus lots of reloading supplies. The military has a fixed amount on hand and pretty much adheres to the just in time inventory nonsense everyone has bought into. I don't know if anything has changed, but I recall in my tour that every year every unit had to burn off all their ammunition because any left over that carried over into the next fiscal year meant that much was subtracted from the budget. Assuming this is still the case, most units will have very little ammo on hand ( I don't have any idea how much a combat unit has. Our unit was rear area support and I seem to recall very few rounds being allocated to each person at the end of the year-it certainly wasn't enough to stay proficient with and they were trying to fill the need with the M-16 simulator ). As a whole, if combat units are added to the average, I can't imagine every soldier being capable of carrying a rifle having that much ammunition. Even if the amount is thousands rather than hundreds, the spray and pray doctrine will eat through those numbers quickly.
*
Another consideration is using the weapon on hand. If you already own a weapon that isn't totally useless like a pot metal pimp pistol like a .25 caliber, you should stick with it regardless of caliber. A less than perfect caliber is compensation for the insane weapons prices currently. You can buy a lot of strange ammo for the price of a gun. So, you don't want to compete for limited ammunition, the military will run out of ammo before you do and can't resupply you, and you might not want to waste the money buying another gun.
END

Monday, June 29, 2009

car enclosure

CAR ENCLOSURE
Today, and today only, I'll take a break from telling you how we are all doomed from Peak Oil. I understand being burned out on Chicken Little warnings, and I understand every author claims irrefutable proof of an impending disaster. No one wants to be taken for a fool so even a true prophet might be ignored after enough charlatans spoiled the process. Let me just say this today, then I'll shut up about it. You don't have to go and live on junk land in a trailer. You can buy marginal land for cash and live in a trailer while you build your own home without a mortgage. You are not panicking, you are not foregoing luxury forever. You are building towards independence, peace of mind and financial freedom. If things really fall part quick, you at least have some kind of shelter.
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This weekend I read "Hubbert's Peak" by JJ Ritonya, a novel. It didn't get into too much detail on the collapse, it was more of a quest epic in the aftermath. It wasn't bad at all, entertainment wise. Not great prep wise, the only tip was on how to substitute gasoline with some auto parts store chemicals, but I was entertained and got my monies worth. Today's article was an idea from that book. I also read "A Presidential Energy Policy" by Michael Ruppert which was great and even made me tingle a little. This is basically an update on "Crossing The Rubicon". It was written last summer but he does add to the end of each chapter if needed ( the additions were February of this year ). So it is about as up to date as you are going to get. He weaves economics and peak oil together, and does a darn good job. You can ignore he Presidential Policy part, it is basically a theme for the book mainly relegated to the back of the book and can be discarded as pure wishful thinking. You can bet I will be ripping off ideas from this one left and right.
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The idea I stole for today was that of junk cars for a fence. Nothing new here, just go back and watch The Road Warrior. The part I liked was it being used to surround the farm fields. The city of Chicago shrunk its area down to a manageable size, ripped up asphalt and made a car fence around everything for defense. Yes, the novel had problems. Like the typical never ending ammunition supply. In this case, how was the sterile soil re fertilized? But that is not the point. I liked the idea of cars protecting the crops. A medieval castle or fortification enclosed a town. Building huge walls obviously took a lot of material and labor. So you had the crops outside the walls. When an enemy attacked you fled into the fortress, perhaps leading the livestock in. The only problem of course was losing the crops. This would be a more viable strategy if you had an offensive force, of course. If you had to be defensive, say for lack of soldiers, could you feasibly enclose all your crop land?
*
First off, you need to forget about a vehicle only fence. That needs to be backed by dirt. If you just stack the cars on top of each other or tip them on their side, artillery is going to hit them and create shrapnel ( plus take down the wall quickly ). Dirt backing them absorbs the blast. This stuff is basic, and five centuries old. You might have problems creating ammunition for modern small arms once industry stops, but cannon is simple enough. Black powder works to take down a stationary target just fine. Of course, I have little in the way of details here. I'm just the idea guy, big picture stuff. I would suggest Civil War research. Because there is such a huge amount of interest in that conflict, books and article abound on it. And cover any subject you desire. There is sure to be plenty of reference material on siege and defensive works ( cough, cough, hint, guest article, hint, cough ).
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I would imagine that a trench is dug, then the car is tipped up on its engine end. This creates a wall to pile dirt behind. The details are how to lay this out in a defensive position. Yes, there is a lot of labor involved. But at least little in the way of other material is needed. The cars can easily be pushed by a gang of workers ( we assume this isn't twenty years later after tires have rotted ). Tipping up with pulleys, perhaps. So the main work is the trench and the dirt wall behind. Surely, every community in this country has enough cars ( SUV's pay their way here ) to create a good size defensive wall. You take out the generator and battery and leaf springs and other salvage items and use the remaining frame for shoring. What else are you going to do with all the damn things without gasoline? Ethanol will be a luxury and limited to farm equipment, no one will be able to afford personal internal combustion transportation.
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And, there is little need to surround an existing city. I would think you pick fertile land, then rebuild with city salvage. Go underground to limit your winter heat and provide ballistic protection. You might think the old school way is better, needing a lot less work. Just have a retreat structure all the farmers can go to under attack. Less walls mean less labor but also less manpower to protect. My answer is, how many times do you want to lose your crops? How much reserves do you think you'll have. Use the trash of the Industrial Age to be defensive smarter. Protect the crops. It will pay in the long run with less loss ( again, we are assuming you don't have a buffer zone protected by nomads or a offensive strategy ).
END
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Friday, June 26, 2009

more peak drivel

MORE PEAK DRIVEL
Amidst all the gloomy economic news ( the Fed sold $300 billion in bonds in 2008, the first half of 2009 it bought $280 billion-no inflation to see here folks, move along, move along ) we have a bit of good news. Michael Jackson died. I understand that with a global population of over six billion there are a heck of a lot of freaks out there, but few would argue that he was the poster boy for them all. Good riddance. Well, I got all cocky and full of myself and threw a party in my honor when I gave you a full length article on Tuesday. So what happens? A clear day yesterday. An hour before I get off work it clouds up bad. I punch out and one minute later the heavens open up in a turd floater. No problem, still have my rain gear handy. But one mile into the ride I pick up a nice hunk of metal and get a flat. Five miles to push the bike home, one in pouring rain and the rest in sun to spike up the humidity. Then, when I finally get home and put on Paul Blart Mall Cop from Red Box into the DVD, it turns into a massive disappointment. Kevin James and Happy Madison productions, a sure hit by all indicators, and it sucks bad. It was one of those days. So, I took the bike into the shop at lunch and you get a short article today.
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I keep telling you to visit http://americanenergycrisis.blogspot.com/ and get a real financial guru give you the scoop on Peak Oil, but you are determined to deny we are all going to die and act like you are living in Pompeii and Mt. Vesuvius is never going to erupt. They lived in luxury, too, up until the last moment when they were turned into BBQ. The latest from that site is that we are now, after three years of declining oil imports, back at 1997 levels of oil supply. So what, you snidely snicker in supreme sarcasm, we had our hero Clinton and the economy was doing great. The only small problem, the only fly in the soup, the only Huge Billboard Warning We Are All Going To Die!!! is that back then our population was only 267 million. Then, after a few years of very loose immigration policy in order to prop up the Social Security contribution numbers, we are currently seeing 305 million. It didn't take very long for all those illegal immigrants to pop a litter and produce legal citizen babies. But don't worry, pops, as long as there is electricity to run the printing presses you'll get your check. Won't buy much...
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Let me spell it out for you so there will be no confusion. We are living on the same amount of energy with Forty Friggin More Million People!!! This is obviously a contributing factor to our economic problems. But keep living in luxury and denial. Look, I'm not saying living on junk land in a trailer is the best choice. Nor is it to every one's liking. It is simply the cheapest way I know of to create a bit of Independence and security for yourself. Even if you don't go that route, you need to do something that frees you from the threat of homelessness and wage slavery and a life of indebtedness. Because the energy numbers will continue to decline and the only way to balance the scales is a die off. All financial bets are off. All of our old insurance will fail. But not instantly. Those in power and enriched off the rest of us will have time to bleed you dry if you remain vulnerable. Such as by having a mortgage or paying rent or being dependant on a car and gas to get to work and pay that rent or house payment. Or having no food set aside for the coming shortages or famines. Or having no way to protect yourself as crime climbs to Zimbabwean levels at the same time we see their type of inflation.
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I'm so sorry we can't look forward to a Ecotopian fantasy future with organic gardens and windmills and universal peace and harmony. Make the hard choices now or have them be made for you. I'm just here to help a brother out. I'm trying to sound the warning that the volcano is beginning to smoke. Denial is more than a river in Egypt.
END

Thursday, June 25, 2009

green shoots on the cliff

GREEN SHOOTS ON THE CLIFF
Sorry about yesterday's hoard/horde misuse. I learn the hard way as I go along these minor errors that make me look like more of an idiot than some of you already think I am. I already told you about the loyal minion lesson when I confused lose and loose. I don't remember the exact words, something about not wanting the old lady loose. That was too funny. What can I tell you, I never got higher edumication. Okay, this morning I was reading the daily article at http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html ( which was dated the 24th ) and I was quite impressed. You know if I'm impressed ( when the whole world DOES revolve around me thank you very much so I think my writing is better than anyone else ) it is a good article. I'm actually taken with his articles on a regular basis. This should be on your daily reading list. I won't rehash the article, you should read it. My point here is that when I was done with it my first thought was that this would be ammunition for some green shoots. Even though the article clearly stated the dangers of this strategy as well as the benefits.
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As things have been failing for some time, and as those failures get worse every few months, and as we continue to make or break Great Depression records of collapse, almost no one can deny that we are in a crap storm of giant proportions. Most people don't want to face up to the fact that we might indeed be in for a collapse, the end of western civilization. So they are compromising. They can't ignore the problem. It can't be wished away. So the de facto fall back argument is that we are in for a long slow collapse. That way they can have their collapse and their cushy standard of living based on mass consumerism and unprecedented luxuries too. I'm not saying that the slow collapsers are wrong and I am right about a quick collapse. What I am thinking is that we have already seen the long slow collapse part and we are slowly approaching the cliff edge where we will suddenly without warning fall off.
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The above mentioned article was about our occupation of the oil region. It got me thinking that this would compel the Cassandras to think we can hang on for a long time since this is true. But my bet would be on this grace period already having been enjoyed and passed by. The benefits are not to be seen now in order to save us but have already been at work. We've occupied the strategic heartland of Arabian oil for over six years. Global Peak Oil has been going on for four years ( remember what I said about a nation would not burn food for fuel if a decrease wasn't happening? ). Now, I don't know how long the global petroleum peak production plateau will last, but I don't think we can hope for very much longer given the recent records. And remember, the downside of the bell curve is pretty steep. One good reason that the lower 48 oil figures have slowly declined over three decades is that prior to peak the Texas Railroad Commission regulated production at a low level that extended most fields lives. Saudi Arabia has done a lot to damage their fields and will fall much quicker ( if you can slog through it, "Twilight In The Desert" does an excellent job debunking the Saudis As Saviors myth ).
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All historical examples of population crash have been agricultural economies. The examples of two hundred to three hundred years of crash duration were based on soil depletion and weather and conquest on a long drawn out time scale. All through the history of agriculture overpopulation, famine and die-offs were normal. They could rebound, recuperate, carry on. Unless one series of misfortunes after another kept hitting the same group. That took time. Petroleum Man will die in a much more compressed time period because oil field depletion happens quickly. And petroleum feeds almost all of us. Just because we occupy the lands that produce the last of the oil doesn't mean spit. For one thing, look at how easy it has been to sabotage the Iraqi production. I think the main effect was simply to deny our enemies the oil rather than get it for ourselves. So our cliff face is in the same spot and we got no where building a bridge over the chasm.
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I'm coming up on a year here in Elko. Look, you triumphantly point out, Jim panicked way too early. I have plenty of time to drive my SUV and live in my mortgaged house and work for XYZ corporation. I can get out before it all turns to a big steaming pile of dung. Let me ask you this. How much easier is it going to be to talk the wife into moving off grid in another year? If we are worse off but still limping along, she will pull out the green shoots argument again, just as you are doing now. And by the time it is obvious to both you and her that things won't return to normal you will have lost all the assets needed to move. If we have already been through years and years of long slow collapse, how close is the cliff edge? You can move as slow as you wish towards that cliff, but once over you can't control the speed. Who cares if you are a year or three early? Almost any gardener/farmer you talk to will tell you how many multiple harvests it takes to become proficient. I had to go through a miserable winter ( remember the normal twenty two degrees inside I bitched about? ) before I insulated the trailer. Not because I didn't know it would be a good idea but because these things take time. Getting settled isn't instant ( it can be close, a topic more another day ), it takes trial and error in everything you do from energy use to sewage to transportation.
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Y2K was the only potential disaster we were ever going to have a calender for. No one knows for sure when it will be too late. But you do need to know your history before you guess the future. Make sure we haven't been in a collapse before you figure we have plenty of time to go.
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