Tuesday, February 13, 2007

iran invasion 2

Before we begin today, I would like everyone to please do something for me. Don't worry, it is free. Please clink on this link I am about to give you. I have a heck of a time trying to modify the Blogspot site, so in order to get a visitor counter I added a page to my own website to get an idea of how many reader I have. At this point I have little idea. Please visit this link once so I can find out http://bisonpress.com/counter.html
Thank you.
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A big hearty THANKS go to DW over in MN for sending me a copy of the paperback "Wolf and Iron". I hadn't read that in at least ten years and look forward to it. You people could take a clue and also shower me with gifts. Boxes of 303 ammo might run into shipping restrictions so just send me one ounce silver coins. I am seriously holding my breath here people!
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MORE ON THE IRAN INVASION
I know what you are all thinking. Half are thinking, I wish he’d shut the heck up. The other half is thinking, I wish he’d stop writing two part articles a week apart and really confusing me. My apologies on both accounts. I might do nothing but over analyze everything, but it is a slow process sometimes. I only fire up the neurons after a half a pot of coffee and then since you all refuse to support my ex-wife I have to go to work which really interferes with a proper flow of logic. So sometimes it takes more than one morning to think out a subject. Okay, actually to be fair if you took an answer to a problem and wrapped it in a lead block and put it front of the door I would stumble over it and after cussing over a bloody shin I would continue on my way none the wiser. If I stumbled over it and then bumped my head on it I might, just might look at the darn thing and achieve a split second of enlightenment. This was one such moment.
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Last week I’m beating my head against the rubber walls and I can’t come up with one good reason why we would be silly enough to invade Iran since it is a course of action so obviously full of danger. Well, I was reading www.urbansurvival.com this morning and he’s throwing around oil reserve numbers and a dim light bulb wearily struggles to life over my head. Take the low ball oil reserve figures for several nations ( high numbers are politically motivated because of OPEC production quotas, a leftover from when there was plenty of oil to pump thirty years ago ) and the picture does become a little clearer. Not crystal clear, as reserves are always off using hindsight. But perhaps enough of a picture to help us see the way. Iraq has about ten percent of the globes oil reserves left. We have 2%. Russia has about 8%. Saudi Arabia has 25%. And our buddy Iran has 10%. What does this tell us?
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If we control 2% and our neighbors Canada and Mexico have a few more percent supply, and we have 10% from Iraq then we are in a very good position of controlling 15% of the globes oil supply. But, wait. We use 25% of produced oil. This is what keeps our economy going, what keeps the bankers and politicians living in Fat City. Once we invade Iran and control another 10% we have our 25% pretty well sewn up regardless of whether other nations withdraw as our suppliers. And if you take into account Saudi Arabian oil we now have pretty much a guaranteed control of half the remaining oil in the world. That will keep us in power, keep our economy alive, keep our society from the Dark Ages. The bankers and corporate elite and politicians can continue to live in luxury. The mass of civilians will just have to be content that they are alive and still have food on the table.
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Now I am not saying this is not without risk. We could experience severe blowback by invading a Russian/Chinese semi-protectorate nation. We could see terror attacks ( although one reason I have my suspicions about who actually caused 9/11 is the lack of more attacks after we invaded the Middle East ). The oil supply from the region could stop. Whatever. I am not really focused on that here. We covered that last time. I am not saying an attack is a good idea, just that it might sound feasible to our powers-that-be. If you are making millions of dollars a year as a parasite you could care less about long term consequences. That’s our bankers/CEO’s/lawyers/politicians. We could avert Peak Oil or we could enter a nuclear conflict. I can see the downside as an unimportant cog in the vast machine. I doubt those in power see much downside at all.
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So having finally thought of a good reason why we will be invading Iran, I can now place more of a mathematical probability in it happening. As a result I have decided to order a bit more ammo through the mail and start buying up some more wheat and other foods. I went out Saturday and picked up a hundred pounds total of a combination of white flour/rice and canned beans. That was about forty bucks. And I spent another forty at the feed store. I couldn’t believe the whole wheat price. Nine months ago it was about $8 retail price for fifty pounds. It is now slightly over ten bucks for the same bag. A twenty-five percent increase in less than a year. I know the twin droughts in the plains and in Australia are not helping the price, but global supplies must really be down for that kind of price increase. In the past retail always stayed the same throughout commodity price fluctuations. I think this is a good time to buy the heck out of it, regardless of a Iran problem. If it stays high like ammo and silver have there will be no better time to buy than now.
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It is never a bad time to increase your basic supplies. But just in case Iran is invaded, buy more now than you had planned on. Inflation alone will keep the price from falling. And increased oil prices don’t help. And any military scare will dry up all supplies. It is a no lose situation for stockpiling now. You can never have enough grain and legumes, ammunition and water filters, solar panels or rechargeable batteries. The prices will only increase ( except perhaps solar panels, but perhaps not a quick enough decrease to justify not buying before a crises ). If you are already in a lot of debt, just get into some more. If not, squeeze the budget for a month or two to get the extra cash. Even if I am 100% totally wrong the supplies will not go to waste. You will save on future price increases. And start sleeping sounder immediately. Good luck.
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5 comments:

R.E.A.L. said...

Good thinking on the oil reserve issue. I think the word "control" might be a bit of a stretch after an invasion but that only emphasizes your point.

Anonymous said...

Thank You!!!!!! Finally, someone who sees the Iraq/Iran oil situation as I do. I've only been talking along these same lines since 9/11 to my family and friends and they all look at me like I'm nuts!

Anyways, thanks for such a good blog. I just happen to stumble across it a couple of weeks ago and have been printing off a lot of your archived articles for late night reading. Your thought processes and ideas remind me of my husband who passed in Dec 2005.

My husband taught me a lot when we lived in a cabin in the woods in the 90s, but now that I have to look after myself, your articles are good council. Thanks again.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, if you don't agree with the official line, people tend to think you're crazy. I tend to keep my thoughts to myself.

Anonymous said...

We can prepare and hope we will survive, but, if that downside is nuclear war and if the Russkies do
view Iran as a client state, or at least a state in their best interests not to be controlled by us, well. Then we may all need to practice that ancient technique.
Bend over as far as you can, stick
your head between your knees, reach up with your lips and KISS
YOUR ASS GOODBY.

Anonymous said...

The problem with the Iran plan is that the nutcases in the White House think we'll just nuke the place and the Iranian civilians will love us and welcome our troops (while the rest of the world might grumble a bit but will accept it because we're the lone superpower).

That, my friends, is insanity itself! The Iranians are patriots that will fight us tooth and nail (they have a REAL military, unlke Iraq did). The rest of the world will see it as a naked oil grab and will decide that we're too dangerous to allow to roam the world freely. They'll dump the dollar and CRUSH our economy like a soda can. We'll be flat broke and under martial law, no one will have a dime to support the cycle of economics and irony of ironies, our demand for oil will plummet, the only ones really having the wherewithall to purchase it being the military.

Folks, we'll be living in a hell on Earth the likes of which you never could've imagined. We'll become a third world nation overnight and as anyone can tell you, it's hard to get poor when you've had money. Say goodbye to hot water showers and resturant food and driving everywhere and watching television or renting videos...our way of life is going to be turned on it's head and we'll be living in a constantly rioting gulag.

Thanks alot W, you rich-kid half-wit!