WHEN WE ATTACK IRAN
Rumors of war abound on the Internet. And like most rumors they turn out to be unfounded. Like when I got all worked up over the Iranian Bourse a few years back ( or last year perhaps ). Iran was going to open an exchange for oil denominated in something other than dollars to cripple our economy. Of course it didn’t happen. What did happen was that several nations did take significant steps away from the dollar and into any other currency so as to hedge their bets. That didn’t get as much press. The abundant rumors of war are also likely to come of nothing. But what if they did unfold? There are several things you are going to want to do to be on the safe side.
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Why would we want to go to war with Iran? Who the heck knows. Why did we go to war with Iraq? Control of the oil? Keeping oil out of circulation to enrich the oil companies that elected Bush? A war time economy to keep us out of a Depression after the Tech Wreck? Logically there seems to be no good answer why we invaded Iraq. Afghanistan we can at least say harbored the Taliban, as convoluted as that logic is at least it is something. As far as Iraq goes only the powers jerking Bush’s strings know and they ain’t telling. I would imagine Iran would be more of the same reasoning. You might say we can’t get worked up about the possibility of invading Iran unless we can guess the reason, but if the inner workings of those enriching themselves off of our suffering are secret we can only guess at what is to come.
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There does seem to be a lot of naval activity directed towards Iran. And the Israelis have been a little too quiet. It is almost as if they are waiting for us to play our hand. Supposedly we were to have struck before Russia delivered their weapon system to Iran ( or Israel was anyway ). Perhaps for whatever reason we are waiting. Perhaps we are merely deploying most of our naval assets there to counter any threats from Iran into Iraq. Again, no one outside of the Beltway knows what is going on. I frankly don’t care at this point the ways or how’s. I just think if it does happen we are in for a lot more blowback than we got from Iraq.
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I think we can safely assume Iran already has nuclear weapons. That is probably not the real issue. And we know Russia has plenty to spare. If Russia is firmly on the side of Iran and doesn’t back down in a conflict we have the beginning of another Cold War with Russia. Perhaps neither of us can back down as Iran is the pivot point for deciding the future control of the remaining oil. This is a lot more deadly than attacking a two bit dictator with an old stockpile of mustard gas. But rather than getting upset over a possible nuclear war ( it has been possible for over fifty years ) let’s instead focus on the severe economic fallout of attacking Iran. Real fallout might be a threat, but I leave that for another day.
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The Iranians know we might attack them. They are prepared to block the oil shipping lanes in that event. It is going to be a lot easier to sink a few supertankers than a few battleships. And even though the oil not reaching our country would be only a fraction of what we use every day it would be enough to upset the whole applecart. We are a Just In Time Inventory economy. We see disruptions and shortages as soon as the smallest fraction of goods stops flowing. Remember, it only took less than 5% of oil imports being disrupted to give us the gas shortages in the 70’s ( we’ll leave out the government intervention making matters worse to simplify things ).
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The first thing after an attack expect the gas shortages to start and/or the prices to skyrocket. It would not be the worst idea to always keep a full gas tank and a few spare cans in the garage. At a minimum, do both those things as soon as you hear of an attack. Next would be food. I would assume coming food shortages if oil supplies are disrupted and do a lot of grocery shopping right after filling up my tank. The gas and the food will not go to waste, regardless of how much extra you get. You can’t lose even if nothing comes of it. If you were ultra-paranoid and serious about the emergency preparations you could do such things as stockpile more ammunition and other supplies such as bottled water. The important thing is to pencil it all out now.
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Get a piece of paper and make a list of how much money you get spare all at once. Then make a priority list of everything you will buy. If you can bike around town don’t even bother with the gas unless it will be for barter. If you have a lot of food stored just concentrate of gasoline. Whatever works for you. Perhaps you need to focus on filling up your propane bottles instead, for emergency heat. This is your “ I normally wouldn’t buy this crap all at once and strain my budget except if oil shortages are coming “ list. For now it is just a mental exercise. It won’t cost anything but your time. Waiting until after an attack occurs guarantees that you will run around in circles and stress and forget something vital. Don’t wait.
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007
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6 comments:
I suppose that invading Venezuela & siezing its oil is out of the question. ;^)
Most of us drive gasoline powered autos but not a few have diesels. Bio-diesel and backyard stills can help to mitigate the situation until it resolves itself.
Can one rig a trickel generator to the top of a still & make electricity along with fuel?
Nuking Iran would only get the Israelis & the Saudis mad at us. Teheran is playing a deadly game of chicken with us. I hope we don't fall into the abyss.
Good analysis, though. Very paranoid. I like it.
The way I see it (if it matters) is like this: If we attack Iran, the rest of the planet will go to war against us, openly or not. Nuking a country for attempting to secure what we (and Israel) have is ridiculous, and we will become the #1 rogue nation, bar none. It will be clear to everyone that our plan all along has been to pirate the world's oil reserves for ourselves, and as you might imagine, that won't go over well.
We might be the most powerful nation on the planet, but we're also the most vulnerable. There is no country more spoiled, more removed from reality, more clueless about how to stay alive without access to an ATM and a 7-11 than the USA. Our currency has just about the same value as Monopoly money. Once the first nuke is dropped, every country but Great Britain (and *maybe* Israel) will exchange their dollar reserves for Euros and Yuans and the dollar will become like the German Weimar Marks (a wheelbarrow of them would buy a loaf of bread).
When people's savings and 401K's suddenly become worthless, they'll get angry. When the marketplace has no way to complete transactions, everyone will lose their jobs. Food will stop being delivered to grocery stores, fuel to gas stations. People will be hungry, terrified and angry. Idiots will start doing stupid things in an attempt to feed their hungry kids. Mobs will form and deal out street justice (at first) and then will start going after anyone suspected of "hoarding" food (even if they were simply smart enough to have a little food in their pantry).
Martial law will be declared but there won't be nearly enough National Guard troops to handle it (they'll be fighting on the Iran-Iraq border instead of protecting their state, like they signed up for). The Bush administration will go into hiding (for fear of a repeat of the "Mussolini gas station incident") and the cities and suburbs will go up in flames.
It's going to be ugly. *Really* ugly. And it will happen, regardless of you trying to wish it away. We kept our economy on life support for years through "military Keynesianism", that is, shoveling bucketloads of money into the Pentagon and it's contractors. Unfortunately, now we'll have to pay the price and the interest rates will make street loan sharks seem like reasonable people. if you want some small advantage in this hellish mess, get out of the dollar NOW. Buy gold and junk silver coins, buy ammo, buy food, buy practical items that you'll be able to use for future bribes and barter. Don't be a sap, waiting until you see news footage of Chicago in flames, when this s**t goes down, it will be fast enough to make you dizzy. They'll keep as much of the news from you and me as possible so that the rich friends of the bastards causing all of this will be able to get *their* dollars turned over into something useful.
If you see CNN talking about air strikes on Iran, you've waited too long. Do your best to hunker down and pretend that you're not home (ditch your car somewhere if you have to...there won't be any fuel for it anyway). Keep your windows blacked out. Be as quiet as church-mice. Don't call any attention to yourself. Hide whatever food you have behind drywall. Eat as little as possible to make yourself fit in with the starved folks around you. Cultivate a "shattered" look of hopelessness/helplessness. Do your best to get through it all. Eventually things will become liveable again. It will never return to what we have now, but people and society will survive in some damaged way.
Nightshift says.....Good post and comments. I know I am preaching to the choir here. Things will get "ugly" if we invade Iran for sure. Good advice about getting ready quick. Gas rationing is a likleyhood and I'm glad we have a little 5 speed rice burner. I would hate to have to make it to work in a 10 mpg vehicle if we only get 10 gallons a week for a ration. Not talking bad about big trucks, I have a van that will be parked....maybe turn it into a guest room...LOL. Having some gas stored is a good idea as it will buy you some time till rationing gets into a routine. If we get "gas coupons" they will be worth more than money and highley barterable. If you can use little fuel yourself, they will be VERY useful.
Yes, stock up on beans, bullets and fuels. I have about 70 lbs of propane but need to get a couple more 20 lb tanks. I need to also max out my gas storage. If you are in a city type area, contact a relative or friend in a "safer" area and work out a plan to visit long term if needed. Have whatever car you own maintained and ready to go if needed. Figure how much gas to get there normally and at least double that so you have a better chance to get there. Have a fall back plan with some camp gear, BOB's, ect.
Get serious about your food stocking. You don't have to get high tech freeze dried stuff, take Jim's advice about canned goods and wheat, ect. Have a water filter.
Have a couple firearms at a minimum. You need at least 2 so your family can cover both sides of your house. Have some ammo too, not just a 20 round box.
Of course having a retreat, and better yet living there would be great. Jims advice is great and for a few thousand bucks you can set yourself up nicely. Yes it is a lot of money but do whatever you can to improve your families chances.
I'm nowhere near where I want to be, but I keep at it. Some areas I'm pretty well set and I am trying to bring the other areas to a higher level.
By the way, I was talking with my liberal, retired, prosecuter neighbor the other day. He said, "The democrats were going to get us out of Iraq". I said, "yes, so we can go into Iran". He said "Bush would never be that crazy"....I just looked at him like he was talking out of his arse and he said...."Oh, Sh!t, you're right".
MTN WM states: There is a school of thought which proposes we are in Iraq, because the late Saddam embarassed George the First and his
son is getting revenge. It is probably B.S. The truth is we have been fighting all these wars to keep on a psuedo war-time economy
and hide the depression we have really been in for eighty years, as Jim has said often, they used inflation to cover the real numbers.
greetings from canada
http://www.priproducts.com/default.htm
for long time storage of gas and diesel this stuff is awesome .. tuff to find in Canada but its everywhere in the US. I have used it and love the stuff .. i have had gas in a can for a year here in damp west coast and still smells great .. well for gas anyway no varnish smell at all ... might be worth looking at peoples
p.s. from canada
no i dont sell it i just like it
wayne
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