URBAN SUCTION
Urban areas are not where any self-respecting survivalist wants to be. Yet what if you don’t have any choice? I’m not talking about your current situation where you are currently residing because of a good paying job or where you are living because of family also living there. Or you are stuck because the real estate market turned south and you can’t sell your home without being upside down ( a situation long familiar to automobile owners, just now happening to home owners who thought real estate would always increase in value- and its kind of funny also in that cars are now as expensive as homes in most areas were twenty years ago ). What I am talking about is that we might all be forced into urban areas against our wishes either for economic survival or by government mandate.
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If we are lucky, the oil starts to run out and suburban areas are no longer viable. The government creates a mess of telecommuter jobs ( or mandates that private companies do so ) and we can hold out a lot longer. Electricity and heating oil are rationed and nobody stays real comfortable but we keep our houses and can travel one day a week to a government distribution warehouse with our coupon books for our rice and beans and six ounces of meat per person. If we are unlucky, the government does nothing to impede the profits of big corporations and we are all unemployed. The suburbs lose most residents since gasoline is a luxury item. We must move back to urban core areas since that is the only place jobs are available and with no tractor trailers running rail is the only transportation for goods. We end up in ghettos, mostly unemployed, fighting amongst ourselves and easily controlled by the government. Farms are consolidated and turned over to big-agri-corps. They receive all fertilizer and seed.
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Right now in the Third World, most farming land is turned over to foreign corporations to grow cash crops. Coffee and sugar, cocoa, etc. The natives are forced to live in giant mega-cities where the quality of life is bad enough that most turn to drug use and crime ( the young, anyway, and they are the majority of the population ). How would you like just a little taste of that? The American public, by and large, has already demonstrated how little they care about the direction of this country. The front page of the newspaper, top above the fold, is usually only sports or celebrity news. Even the lowest brow of entertainment such as Fox TV is exceeding its old standards and getting worse. The day the bridge collapse was shown in the paper, the front page news was a three inch article with medium print. Right below that was a six inch article with large print was an article about a local Lake Tahoe golf tournament. Most people only want to visit the Coliseum. Don’t bother them with news of wheat crop failures in Africa.
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So almost no one wants to hear about the Perfect Storm brewing to end our lives of luxury and privilege. They will be knocking at your door the same time nuclear fallout is arriving, demanding to be let in and provided for. But right now they don’t want to hear any bad news. The vast majority of suburbia will be shocked to learn they must give up their fairy tale existence. It won’t all go down hill immediately ( baring an Iranian attack that closes the Straights to oil ). As gas gets truly scarce and insanely expensive, we will start to car pool. I think we are spoiled enough that gas will need to get to twice the current price to force us to inconvenience ourselves for that. Speed limits will be lowered. Tires will have taxes increased to somewhat cut down on distances driven. Perhaps some gas rationing. After it is too late the government will add gas taxes to help re-build the public transport Detroit had destroyed decades ago ( maybe we should try for restitution before they go bankrupt ).
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When things get to the point there are no more easy fixes, then government gets serious about not allowing us to drive. The only question is going to be, will a Communist Dictatorship win out and everything is nationalized or will a Fascist Dictatorship take over, supported by big business? In the one, Hillary will rule us from the Politburo, dictating politically correct mandates that are For The Children. We all slowly die as the entire economy is run like the Post Office. In the other, corporate control of campaigns dictates that the giant corporations can do anything they want and the American public is treated like those poor bastards in China, fighting for the crumbs amongst themselves. I don’t know which will be worse. The public will go along either way as long as they don’t have to wake up and make any hard decisions.
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Communism works for them since they figure they can be one of the ones getting something for free, but fascism is attractive to those with power. My bet is on the Fatherland ( I mean Homeland ). Fascism will make the bankers more money. So, we all dutifully hike back to the cities, babies and plasma TV’s strapped to wheelbarrows and infant bicycle trailers. We crowd several families into each house. Dad goes to the employment center each morning for day labor in a human labor gang fixing levies to keep the East Coast from flooding from global warming. He gets paid minimum wage but hyper-inflation is at least twelve times quicker at destroying that purchasing power so it buys less every payday. He can’t quit despite a hernia and arthritis since a long line of people will gladly take his position. I’m sure in female positions there will be sexual favors demanded for job security. Better get that implant now for a survival prep.
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Health care might be universal, but long waiting lists ensure you die before treatment is wasted on you. Malnutrition is common. Government soup lines always run out of supplies before the line is finished. Any riots are met by overwhelming force as the military and Federal law enforcement ( metro police are joined into the Feds like it or not ) are given the remaining oil. They can race to any disturbances in shiny new SUV’s armored and armed with squad automatic guns. A large unemployment sector allows them to recruit for the biggest and strongest having the mental outlook they require. Expect no sympathy from a friendly soldier or cop. They will have been bred to kill you at command. Any area seeing too much rioting has its rations cut. The government hasn’t nationalized farms, but the agri-corps is given a monopoly in exchange for bribes. All farm land belongs to them, only they get the supplies. The cozy relationship with industry and Nazi Germany will be followed here, but since we own no more local factories it will be Hollywood and ADM farms that jump into bed with the Feds and expose their will butt hole for a bigger share of profits.
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You can’t own rural land and there are no jobs. There is no more private auto use allowed. You will be forced to “decide” to move to the city where you will be totally controlled by our masters. Have fun with that one.
END
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Wednesday, August 08, 2007
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21 comments:
Scary, but one of the more possible futures.
So much for retreats.
Jerry in SoIL
Good Post James. This could be expanded to book. Call it GWB's Hammer or GWB's Bootheel. Or Hilary's Hellhole.
No Osama, Obama or Chelsey's Momma
Carl
Best post I've seen anywhere in ages, and based on historical precedent, an extremely accurate prediction.
What you are describing is a classic "maintenance crisis", a slow and uneven decline into collapse due to diminishing returns on ever greater complexity, resulting in the inability to maintain existing levels in an era of ever-scarcer and more dear resources, in the pattern of Rome or the Maya.
Unless WW-III breaks out, I expect a slow slide model. Worst possible scenario in a way because it allows government to grow and morph into an oppressive arm of the elite. Well, more so than it already is.
I’m not sure if I find Tainter’s book encouraging or not. One the one hand, he suggests that a soft landing is more likely than a sudden dieoff; the collapses he studied took place over decades. On the other hand, the years leading up to collapse tend to be very unpleasant, with brutal government control, high taxes, conscription, anarchy, banditry, widespread malnutrition, etc. Tainter expects that before collapse, we will be pouring a huge percentage of our GDP into R&D, trying to find a technology that will save us. You are seeing the start of this presently with the current spate of techno-optimistic vaporware announcements, the ethanol boondoggle, and coming soon, massive nuclear power ramp-up. That means the standard of living will fall, since there will be less to spend on other things.
Though many survivalist types think salvation is an isolated homestead in the country (one notable exception being FerFAL, who has written extensively on the Argentinian crisis and aftermath), that was not the case for Rome or for the Maya (per Tainter and Diamond). In both cases, people moved nearer the cities in the decades before the collapse. Taxes grew so high in Rome that many farmers simply abandoned their land. It was easier to get food in the cities than on the farms that grew it. Many laws passed involved ways to tax abandoned land. Eventually, Rome passed laws ordering that the sons of farmer be farmers themselves, but then had to spend more resources on enforcing those laws.
Less is known about the Maya, but they, too clustered closer to the cities as the end approached. Likely this was because isolated farms and villages were vulnerable to raids. They already are in many countries (South Africa, Sierra Leone, Argentina during their 1999-2003 crisis, Northern Ireland during the IRA days, etc). Too many people, not enough food, and no way out leads to only one outcome: warfare.
During the Russian revolution and civil war (1918-1922), while some did survive the famine living in remote places, most people moved toward the cities - the cities and their armies that created the famine by conscripting the peasants and then sending troops into the country side to collect food. A lot of the ensuing famine (millions died) was caused by the seeds being taken by the city dwellers and eaten. Agricultural collectivism was the result.
During the Great Depression (Dust Bowl anyone?), farmers lost their homes first, while city folks stood in breadlines. Even being debt free was no salvation, taxes still had to be paid and needed supplies purchased. Many small towns became literal ghost towns. Crime was rampant in these areas (Bonny and Clyde, Dillinger, et. al.)
Logistical links (trucks and rail) will stop delivering to small towns before they stop delivering to big cities. Something to contemplate.
Charles Bowden wrote a very good book. Want to know what our future will look like? No need to speculate. It exists already, right across the bridge from El Paso Texas.
'Juarez: The Laboratory of our Future'
http://www.amazon.com/Juarez-Laboratory-Future-Charles-Bowden/dp/0893817767/ref=sr_1_1/105-0020661-3722801?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1185281765&sr=1-1
Here you find walled in castles with some of the world’s richest people. They drive the latest European sports cars, wear the latest designer clothes, have servants that tend to every need. Fly around the world when not home.
A sub-class tends to their needs. Doctors, drivers, lawn men etc. Factories supplying government supported jobs with what amount to slave wages, ringed with razor wire and high security provide jobs for the next level. Outside of the wire, total chaos reigns.
Police, army guard the rich and their property. Predators (criminals and police) feast on the poor. Bullying, rape, torture, theft, none of these are of concern to those in power, as long as they are done in the shanty towns of the poor.
Lawyers do what lawyers do, guard the rich and their possessions and write laws that enable them to maintain their advantage.
Huge slums cover outlying areas: houses made of discarded pallets, sheets of tin and scraps of tar paper with no running water. Most don’t have electricity, those that do are stealing it from the power lines that pass by. Literally hundreds of wires cover the ground, some live some not, all attempts to “steal” power. The site of someone burned to death trying to install one of these is a common occurrence. People mine dumps for salvage. On and on. Read the book. And weep.
I think the one difference will be agriculture. I envision a takeover of farms (that has been ongoing for some time now). Those that sign up for the government subsidy programs will get dyed diesel that cannot be used on roads to grow food with. The rest do without and are left with livestock if lucky–if not then with a hoe.
People will continue to farm. There will be no widespread chaos because chaos will be met with bullets and high tech weapons–not those of private citizens but of the army.
You’ll be shot down like a rabid dog if you don’t accept your lot in life, just like the average Iraqi today.
Fedghetto (noun): An urban area run as a Totalitarian Police and Welfare State by the central Government as a way to support the bloated population after the collapse of the Cornucopian Age. These may be called something along the lines of “Emergency Housing Districts”, “Enhanced Security Zones”, or “Warm and Fuzzy All American Apple Pie and Definitely Not Concentration Camps We Promise Happy Places”. For your security, there will be check-points to keep terrorists out. You’ll be asked to leave all weapons at home, where they’ll be safe as the National Guard watches over your neighborhood. It’s only a temporary situation, after all….
These will be the “Inside” some have discussed previously, FEMA-style work camps where you’ll trade freedom for minimal needs being met.
Wish there was an edit function....I could have made that a bit easier to read....
More wisdom here in one day than
12 years in the public fools system.
Forced urban living...the UN calls them Habitat Areas. No private property, no individual rights, being paid in digital credits which expire weekly...there are people naive enough to consider this a post-industrial paradise.
Good call, Jt.
It may come down to choosing between the Fedghettos (Fema/Halliburton work camps), complete with clean green fascism and all that goes with it (citizen, your papers please. Stand in line for your half kilogram of Soylent Green, and do not forget to report your neighbors for hording or suspicious behavior), or the lawless and desolate wastelands, stalked by famine, disease, and hordes of MZB's (...Just walk away and maybe we won't rape, kill, skin, and eat you...)
'1984' (inside) vs 'The Roadwarrior' (outside).
But hey, at least you get to choose....maybe.
Could an outside country do this to us?
We basicly had more money than the Soviets. We out spent (?) them on the arms race to force them into revolution. Could China be doing that to us now? Image the USA broken up like the former USSR or UN peacekeepers on our soil by request of a Dem Cong Congress. Don't think the UN doesn't know the drill on securing towns and dearming the public.
+1 on FerFals writing! A true survivor.
Jerry in SoIL
Ferfal is nothing but bull.
I've been in Argerntina and nothing like that is happening but in his head.
5months ago came back from Bariloche, it is a dream city with no crime and properous. You'll envy the beauty. There is nothing but european people seeking the security.
If you want to know survival, they have the best schools and preperness second to none.
Rich people are seeting up their secluded places from society. They are mansions.
NOT FOR YOU GUYS, YOU ARE FRUGALLY SURVIVALIST IN A OLD TRAILER AND CHEAP DESERT LAND, MAKING MINIMUM WAGES.
WAKE UP, MOVE TO THE YUPPIE SIDE , BE RICH AND GET BEAUTIFUL LAND, JUST LIKE ME.
I'M NOT BRAGGING, I'M JUST RICH.
Creekmore over at National survival blog did a review of one of james posts. He makes some good points. And his site is getting better, but james is still my first read of the day. The site is http://thesurvivalblog.blogspot.com interesting.
Mr. Jim, you have painted a very scary and possible scenario for all of us to think about.
I'm no expert here but, I do see that some of these things could indeed happen in the future.
But I see some of this taking anywhere from 5 to 20 years to happen, if it was to absoulutly begin tommorow. (perhaps quicker if a Clinton gets the oval office power throne)
Sound right to all of you?
I agree with Mike Ruppert..."let um burn"...the cities will burn as there are not enough police to keep order.
Geographically isolated farmland will be a good place to be.
Okay, now I'm depressed.
Anon posted a link to www.thesurvivablog.blogspot.com. On your recommendation, I went to have a look-see.
I am not impressed. BS-meter going at tilt. A lot of "shoulds" and not much in the way of "I dids". If this guy is living-the-life, I would be very very surprized.
Give me a person who's had the experience, anyday, over somebody who dun thunk about it some.
I've been reading Creekmore's site since its beginning. One thing comes to my mind......There is two ways to make you look good in others eyes......One is to run others down......The other is to be better. That's about all I've heard or seen from his site, running others down.
Creekmore made a posting commenting on how stupid it is to store only wheat. Stating it will make you deathly ill. Well, if you store only wheat and don't make it a part of your diet now to see if you will have reaction, that is stupid.
As for his posting on the post event bandits, Creekmore is a bad job of twisting Jim's posting.
BTW, I'm not protecting Jim. His views and mine or not 100% the same. But I don't like others trying to run another fellow blogger down with untrue postings.
Creekmore does have pretty good ideas and I agree with some of them. I must agree on his choice for handguns. The S&W K-frame and Glocks are great handguns. I have to give the edge to the Glcoks over the 1911 due to the magazines. But I don't agree on the Mini 14. Its too expensive. Its in the price range of a used Bushmster AR15, and the AR uses cheaper magazines. And don't get me started on the 870 express!
Jerry in SoIL
TO Jerry in SoIL,
Did you read my article on wheat or did you just look over it? I never said it would make everyone ill, only people who are allergic to wheat.
I also stated "it is important to include items from your food storage in your everyday meals. This way you become familiar with preparation and any allergic reactions to certain foods." You can read the article here;
http://thesurvivalblog.blogspot.com/2007/07/is-your-food-storage-making-you-sick.html
You need an assortment of foods even if it's only wheat and beans, this is much better then reliance on wheat alone. Eating wheat products everyday will get old fast. And why should you limit yourself?
What part of my post on bandits was untrue? You need to go read Jims post again, then go back and read mine and use your brain to think about it.
When do I run others down? If I disagree with something I will say so I owe this much to my readers don't you think?
I have never said anything bad about Jim or Rawles. I read and enjoy both. Jim has a good blog.
You said in your comment "One thing comes to my mind......There is two ways to make you look good in others eyes......One is to run others down......The other is to be better." Have you ever noticed the run down of Rawles on bison survival blog?
Start reading with an open mind. And don't be so quick to jump before you think about it and put all the facts together.
Rawles is number 1, creekmore is number 2, Jim is number 3. at least on my scale.
Keven in TN
anonomous 6:35 PM
I know Creekmore personally and he has been and done most of what he writes about. At one time he lived for 8 months in a tent. Not because he had to but because he wanted to. Every year he plants a garden and cans his own produce. He hunts and traps. What have you done?
Creekmore
I have read both Jim's and your postings. And I stand by my posting. Sorry you don't like it.
BTW, I see you have posted your long list of titles. Glad you was able to do what you did. I like shooting myself. And I'm a fellow correctional officer. I did 8 years total as a line/TACT officer in IDOC. I still work in corrections, but in the dietary now.
Now one of your readers and seems personal friend posted to back up your knowledge of the outdoors. That's great also. I like camping also. I even poach and trap from time to time. I wish I could get out and be one with nature too for months at a time, but the family would frown on that.
My past isn't as exciting, but I do feel accomplished enough to give some advise on making it through the hard times. I was poor. Deadbeat father, no child support, Mom had to work in factory. We ate basics, beans, cornbread, cabbage and taters, and veggie soups. Mom couldn't afford to take off work to go get aid. I poached and trapped. We did without electric in the late spring to early fall to save money for school cloths and get some money up for savings. We lived bare bones for a long time.
If you need to comment anyfuther, my addy is jrh_cdh1993@yahoo.com.
Jerry in SoIL
I have been an avid connoisseur of this site for a few months and this has been the best point/counterpoint article yet.
My 85 yr old momma lived through the "great depression" and also lived with very litle her entire life. She says she sees very hard times coming and so do I. I was lucky enough to learn from her and her mother and sisters and brothers, most now long gone. I have poached when necessary, gardened my whole life and eaten pigeons, groundhog, and catfish, oh, and dandelion, too. I like this post and generally enjoy Jim's writing. If I didn't, I'd just stop reading. Being poor won't make the coming hard times easier, it will only help tolerate it better than some "rich" folks.
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