shortages

SHORTAGES
It is quite evident that shortages are occurring. Every week it seems something is suddenly in short supply. Some things are easy to figure out on the surface. Heavier than expected snow storms use up supplies of road salt and ice melt so we run out. A sugar refinery fire causes a week or so of spot shortages on grocery store shelves. The housing boom combined with Chinese infrastructure booms cause a copper pipe shortage. A late night talk show host makes a joke and toilet paper is hard to find ( Johnny Carson in the seventies ). But there has to be more to it than Chinese competition or bad weather. It might be little more than a perception change due to increased reporting or extra paranoia, but to me it seems this short of thing is just happening too often.
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What fundamental change is causing our supply system to stall? The just in time inventory system certainly doesn’t help small disruptions due to lack of stockpiles. The increased squeeze on truckers due to environmental considerations with the diesel fuel/engines, higher fuel prices and inventory delays doesn’t help. Could it finally be that the increased population is meeting with a decreasing oil supply coupled with a failing infrastructure to produce a system breakdown? If global Peak Oil did indeed occur in 2005 and we are just now feeling the effects of increased demand with limited supply ( remember, pricing out the Third World so their share of usage shrank bought us some time ) might that account for a start in many more shortages? If companies are unable to pass along price increases for a variety of reasons, might shortages occur when those companies decline to produce since it would lose them money? Plenty of price increases occur, just look at .308 ammunition. But there are plenty of instances of at least a decrease in the increase of prices due to competition. Might this simply be a credit problem ( with the current financial melt-down )? Or heavy inflation hidden from view?
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Are some companies even able to produce if increased costs and even shortages on their part put a brake on output? The South African electricity shortages are causing platinum cost to skyrocket. For years now environmental constraints have caused certain activities to be halted altogether ( ore refining, logging ). It seems you have two systems of supply going on right now. One is rapid price increases to keep items on the shelf. Look at flour, sugar, copper pipe. Other supplies just don’t show up since a bottleneck occurs somewhere along the supply chain. Municipalities are going to pay whatever is needed to get salt for winter road conditions. Dairy farmers need some kind of feed even if it isn’t corn. But if there is none available, good luck getting it. It almost makes me wonder if we aren’t in a system wide failure. Is it going unreported that the credit collapse is affecting people up and down the supply chain and they are starting to experience problems buying on the usual 90 day accounts receivable? Without credit for every supplier or service provider our system simply can’t work. They need a cushion between paying and getting paid. Is it as simple as inflation being lied about, businesses trying to hold down price increases as long as possible, then when that is no longer possible a certain price jumps at a certain time causing chaos in the system?
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Sorry, I only have questions instead of answers. What you need to know, if unknown shortages are going to continue being the norm, is that you need to try to anticipate future shortages. I’ve come up with a short incomplete list. Feel free to add to it. Ammunition will continue to be available but prices are increasing steadily. If for whatever reason, Hillary being elected, a national panic such as a city being nuked, the general public starts wanting more than one box of ammo per gun you can be assured of actual shortages. Which in turn will see reloading components increase in price or disappear. As corn is hard to procure since Bush The Monkey Boy has the hand of ADM up his butt controlling his actions and producing ethanol, expect sugar to increase in price or become scarce. If you can’t cheaply sweeten with corn syrup you will need sugar. Flour prices are of course insane. Bakeries will soon have to pass on increases to the consumer. They are no longer able to lock in cheap future supplies like they used to. Expect shortages as well as increased prices.
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As oil increases in price you should expect a few things to reflect that more than usual. Insulation is number one. Buy it while the housing bubble is deflating and you can afford it. If oil jumps up everyone is going to want to insulate their gum and glue McMansions to save on fuel. Wood and wood pellets will jump in price and experience shortages. At the end even glass will experience the same as passive solar heating becomes all the rage ( there is historical precedence for all this in the 70’s as oil prices jumped to high levels ). To add to the list is going to hurt your brain ( it did mine so I stopped ). You must account for whatever uses commodities and oil, which means pretty much everything. And don’t forget service disruptions to come. Local governments get into trouble, lay off personnel, you get shoddy or no service or even strikes. Won’t service shortages be fun? Electricity, sewer, water, trash.
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Got preps?
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