ECONOMIC RECOVERY
I needed a good laugh today, so I started thinking about all these jokers that predict and or hope for an economic recovery. It doesn't matter about the details, whether they are calling for another twenty percent off housing before a recovery, a recovery after Obammy does the exact same thing Bush did this summer and sends everyone a $500 check, whatever. And we might even see a shallow and short lived recovery. But it won't matter. The only way our economy is headed is down, and it will crash and burn in most of our lifetimes. It won't be another twenty year reprieve like we saw after the 1970's. That was a political crash, based on a decision to abandon gold and by the oil exporting nations holding oil hostage. This one is an economic crash, the result of the derivative market played for too long by too many players caring only about immediate gains. And a real oil crash. Not a market manipulation but a global shortage.
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The derivative market coming to an end is not exactly news anymore. Too many bets were made with one percent down and they were lost and now the ten percent marks are coming due ( to grossly simplify ). The resulting credit contraction ( as cash flow is insufficient to cover the bets ) is much more efficient at halting global trade than the 1930's tariff wars ever were. The oil shortages are not being felt just yet. Retail stores close, employees no longer commute to work, shopping is down as credit card limits shrink and workers take pay cuts. Much less oil is being used. For the time this will disguise the shrinking global production of oil. In fact, if you do subscribe to any conspiracy theories, you might think the bankers intentionally started the depression to help the oil last longer. I don't buy that since each and every "powers that be" is a greedy pig and will attempt to maximise their riches regardless of long term effects. But then, let's hope I'm wrong and we see managed long term suffering rather than die off and famine.
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The fact that oil is or is going to shrink in supply should be all you need to know about our long term economic health. You can debate the exact year we hit global oil peak production. You can debate how much time we have at the production plateau. You can argue over how long the remaining coal and uranium will last. You can't argue that oil is a finite resource and there is no replacement for it. As oil is becoming scarcer, as the very lifeblood of our very existence becomes scarcer, how can you expect a functional economy?
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Yes, I keep harping on this very subject. This is too important to wish away. I didn't move up to this Junior Stewart's Folly because I love the weather. I did it because it is the safest place available to me. I really believe this is the start of the end. I could be wrong. I've been wrong for twenty years. I'm just trying to point out what look like conclusive evidence to me. But don't take too long deciding for yourself. If I'm right about the collapse, everything you are used to as life's safety nets will vanish and endanger you. It's time to make hard choices. Your comfort level will be threatened. Hey, I'm only the messenger.
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13 comments:
Jim, you are not wrong on the coming event, perhaps you may have the time line incorrect. We are looking to remove to a more rural location, just not going to junk land, not yet anyway. I'm too freaking old to grub with the chipmunks for nuts, so I'll be trying to get set up to garden, raise some chickens, perhaps swine.
Got guns, will be getting some more ricky-ticky soon and boosting the ammo cache. Supper today is home-made bean, bacon & ham soup
with a loaf of great bread. Next time, I'll give you the recipe for all the folks. Gotta run now, see you at ARMAGEDDON. BIGBil.
Hi Jim, I think you are right about the economic meltdown, but I think you and Jim Kunstler are wrong about peak oil and the seriousness of its ramifications.
There is still plenty of it in the ground, more than enough to make a transition to algal based diesel (transportation) and nuclear/other alternates (electric). I think the problem is that nobody has a PLAN. Not one that is going to work for the economy, not one that is going to work for energy.
The "Special" interests are going to control the government straight to special interest hell. Grabbing for every last straw with their grubby, greedy little fingers. That's all I have for today.
i suspect that nobody really dares to think much less mention, that the collapse of the market bubble has essentially rendered the UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT insolvent.
yeap! obammy (aka bush-lite) and the other horse thieves in DC don't dare mention their 'liquidity game' is just a plain old default by another name.
they'll flap their arms, throw worthless paper at the "problem", and keep up the spin: "things will be better next week- month- quater-year.."
a slow descent into grinding poverty and despair for those who hold onto the old ways....time to forget those bums, they never cared what happened to you before, and now their just trying to retain power....
opps! no tax relief for the workers as of today. how long until it's the medical coverage? i'm sure by next week that will be off the table. and how long till unemployment benefits disappear ?
six months ???
the titanic is sinking. don't go down with the ship....
Sad part is that we can't get some folks to listen, even family.
Time to say Adios, do what we need to do, and prep our way to our individual comfort zones.
Mr. Dakin,
My family has been speculating in Texas oil since the late 1970's. Lately I make it a point to ask anyone involved in the oil business-engineers, money people about peak oil happening now- I found out most believe. But a lot of them are stupid and think peak oil is a way for them to get rich, not that the gov will eventually nationalize domestic oil wells in order to ration oil out to the voters and also to keep its war machine going. Not to mention the wider implications of Peak Oil.
Ah well, at least you tried. That's what I tell myself anyways.... If nothing else, you've drastically reduced what you feed to the beast, and that's something in it's self. I abhor "supporting" that which I do not support.....
Jim,
Unfortunately, I think you are right.
Creekmore is hot these days: check him out:
http://thesurvivalistblog.blogspot.com/
Dunno what % petroleum is used to make motor fuel. We can grow hemp which is used for textiles, plastics, ethanol, etc. All internal combustion engines can use ethanol.
http://www.hort.purdue.edu/newcrop/ncnu02/v5-284.html
I'd like to see you be wrong, and "see managed long-term suffering..."
But thegreedy bastards are cowards, too. When their gorge-fest ends and their companies start disappearing faster than open-heirloom corn, they turn gun on themselves.
Spineless pricks... deny me my entertainment...
You're right, James. My opinion, anyway. They'll run the country to the ground, then get us involved with the UN and its fables. Of course, we won't know til after the fact.
One nice tig about another stimulus check: it'll buy another bag of beans. Maybe.
Shy
What's the difference between Michael Jackson and a grocery bag?
One is white, made out of plastic, and dangerous for kids to play with and the other you carry your groceries in.
*****
What do you call 5 niggers hanging from a tree?
A Mississippi wind chime.
*******
What's the difference between nigger pussy and a bowling ball?
You could eat a bowling ball if you had to.
******
Why did so many nigger soldiers get killed in Vietnam?
Every time someone yelled "Get down!" the niggers would jump up and start dancing.
******
What do you do if you see a nigger with half a head?
Stop laughing and reload.
Jim you really should moderate your comments. The racist remarks and the trolls make you and your blog look cheap and second rate. I am sure if you don't do something soon you will loose a lot of your readers, myself included.
And another thing if the blogger staff spots the racist comments they can and will delete your blog, without warning! All someone need to do is flag your site by using the toolbar at the top of the page (flag blog) and you and your site is gone.
11:01....I agree that these racist remarks do not reflect well on the blog. I assume that we all read "survivalist" blogs because the subject matter interests us. I enjoy it, that's for sure. Survivalism should know no color, but ignorance abounds.
I agree a moderator may help, IF the blog's author feels it would help. On the other hand, I strongly disagree with ANYONE censoring any blogs for any reason except for inciting physical harm on another individual. Racism exists, that's a fact. I have no use for any "blogger staff" that would shut someone down because they don't like the subject matter. With all the nonsense going on in this country right now, the LAST thing we need is censorship of any kind. Intelligent people can always filter out the idiots. I disregard racist morons and you'd be better served to do so as well.
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