farm grab

FARM GRAB
Chaos and lawlessness brings misery and the end of trade. The end of trade brings death and an extreme low standard of living. So government is welcomed. It doesn't even matter if the former gangs become the new government. So what kind of government can we expect? My guess is close to a medieval type. You won't have knights on horses jousting or kings ruling from a throne, but you will have governance based on a local, decentralized, agrarian based economy. Land will be the coin of the realm. Land will be controlled by the rulers, as it is the remaining value. There will of course be other valuables such as the few remaining oil deposits pumped by old tech, salvaged metals, salt deposits, manufacturing centers, etc. But the collapse will be brutal enough that we see a repeat of post-Rome. No more centralized manufacturing, a breakdown in trade and a shortage of money. Land, and the food it grows, will be wealth, as it will be all that sustains life. Today we substitute oil for fertile land, and we fight for the oil. Tomorrow, we fight for the land itself, and the crops grown by hand organically. With a lack of trade and credit, precious metal will be the only form of payment. And as that is in short supply, food based barter and the ownership of land is the only way to own more wealth. You can't create more money, but you can steal more land. And you can't afford to pay your armies, but they can be given control of land. Land grants to retiring soldiers, land grants to your "knights" that can muster men at arms, land increased through royal marriage or war.
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Rome grew powerful by taking fertile land. It took in slaves through winning wars, who not only worked the lands but provided a surplus of energy to create a wealthy ruling class. It amassed such a surplus it could build public works that in turn increased its reach and power. Alas, it was surrounded by less ideal lands. Wet and cold northern Europe, African desert beyond the fertile coast, Islam in the east, etc. Once it conquered that ideal land its growth model started to contract. That was the start of the end. They survived nicely on their surplus for a time, but it was on the road to ruin. Just as we are with oil. Once the peak of production was hit, it was the beginning of the end. We are simply witnessing the fall. Without a surplus of energy, either fertile land in ideal climates ripe for conquest or petroleum to substitute for that, you can't have a rich society. You fall back to a substance economy, the land barely enough to feed you and factions fighting over those meager spoils. The Dark Ages were such a time. The depleted soils of old Rome, the less fertile northern land. They supported a population, but not well. By fighting for a surplus, one could just survive. This encouraged a militant society, spurned a continuing arms race and ultimately enabled these people to colonize the globe. But it was a nasty, mean environment to live in. A Darwin evolutionary petre dish. America is headed there. Our once deeply rich and fertile farmlands are depleted, our oil is running out and our treasury can barely pay for a hold on everyone elses oil. The remains will yield little and the huge population will suffer famine and war as the meager lands feed far less. And an armed and militant race will fight each other for that surplus that allows one tribe to survive at the expense of the other.
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This is why I hold such low expectations for farmers in the future. You will be occupying the only wealth left. You won't be allowed to keep it. Gardening is a great way to insure yourself during the collapse phase, it will supply needed foods. If you minimize salad crops and maximize calorie crops such as corn and potatoes it will be a very productive enterprise. Long term, however, the large homestead self sufficient in food is in danger of being "nationalized". A word to the wise.
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The above post is an excerpt from my book in progress, "Life After The Collapse". So, yes, I cheated today. The book is from one half to one third completed. So far I have 20k words, or almost forty pages of dense scribblings. In comparison, "The Frugal Survivalist" was 42k. I'm not sure if I'll wait to publish when completed or offer it in several parts. I picked today's example thinking about long term plans being thwarted, a sure path to insanity as all your efforts can always be "war gamed" away. Then I read China saw 100,000 ( could that be a misprint? ) factories close last year and they need 15 million new jobs a year just to keep up with population growth. I felt better for expecting the worse after that.
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