pascalian wager

PASCALIAN WAGER
Blaise Pascal was a mathematician that put forth an argument for devout behavior that can be summed up as follows. Even if the odds are against a vengeful god existing, it is still prudent and rational to behave as if he did. It is a small price to pay to forgo illicit pleasures in this life as an insurance policy because if there is even the slightest possibility of such a horrible consequence as eternal damnation and hellfire in the afterlife it is best to avoid that consequence. In other words, just in case, act to avoid the worse case scenario. Or, as one wag said of Y2K, it's the consequences not the odds.
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Now, whenever you want to sound really smart and intelligent, just tote out some dead guys quote that agrees with what you are saying and you are suddenly golden. I happened across the above description is an otherwise forgettable book on how the world might end. I think it was Our Final Hour. Too much crap on man made bio-engineering and such. But it gave us today's topic so it wasn't all bad. So, whenever idiots start telling you the worst is past now that the Dow gained five percent after losing 50%, or the spouse is screaming at you about how you prevented the family from going to Disney World because you spend all the vacation money on a generator and MRE's for Y2K, or you read a book giving a really good argument that petroleum is mineral based and we can never run out so man can build private space craft and colonize the universe and live happily ever after in a Libertarian paradise, just bring out the Pascalian Argument that we must prepare even if the odds are against disaster. I can almost guarantee you that this will not work, but the beauty of it is that you will sound really smart doing it. Then, you can either feel really smug about yourself, or there will hopefully be just a small little worm of doubt in your adversary.
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I understand that most people are quite content is their bread and circuses world of non-stop 74 channels of TV and soy oil and corn syrup fast foods. They haven't used their brain except to conspire against others for many years. Their grey matter is as flabby and disgusting as their thigh and belly fat. They are lame and crippled members of the herd milling around the water hole and have no clue that carnivores are circling. They position themselves in the middle for the false sense of security, not realizing that the fit members on the edges will run away quickly and leave them vulnerable. So even demonstrating your superior intellect may have no effect on others. It is worth a try of course. Just don't expect too much. And many people can't even really be blamed for their ignorance. Herd behavior is, after all, a survival instinct. Those that act outside that group are acting in counter productive ways. Just because we will soon be proven correct is no reason for others to believe us now. We are the crazy ones, as judged by what has benefited the species for the last hundred years or so.
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Of course, one must acknowledge that the Pascalian Wager is just that, a wager. We are betting we are right, that we have correctly figured the odds. But even if Derivative Meltdown turns into another Y2K ( which I highly doubt but stranger things have happened ) it was still worth acting as if it was inevitable and imminent. We've covered this before. Even if wrong, you still have the insurance for next time. What we are talking about this time is having the intellectual high ground when arguing with significant others. But it is just another tool rather than a guarantee. Hope this helps. If not, at least it was somewhat interesting.
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