GREEN SHOOTS ON THE CLIFF
Sorry about yesterday's hoard/horde misuse. I learn the hard way as I go along these minor errors that make me look like more of an idiot than some of you already think I am. I already told you about the loyal minion lesson when I confused lose and loose. I don't remember the exact words, something about not wanting the old lady loose. That was too funny. What can I tell you, I never got higher edumication. Okay, this morning I was reading the daily article at http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html ( which was dated the 24th ) and I was quite impressed. You know if I'm impressed ( when the whole world DOES revolve around me thank you very much so I think my writing is better than anyone else ) it is a good article. I'm actually taken with his articles on a regular basis. This should be on your daily reading list. I won't rehash the article, you should read it. My point here is that when I was done with it my first thought was that this would be ammunition for some green shoots. Even though the article clearly stated the dangers of this strategy as well as the benefits.
As things have been failing for some time, and as those failures get worse every few months, and as we continue to make or break Great Depression records of collapse, almost no one can deny that we are in a crap storm of giant proportions. Most people don't want to face up to the fact that we might indeed be in for a collapse, the end of western civilization. So they are compromising. They can't ignore the problem. It can't be wished away. So the de facto fall back argument is that we are in for a long slow collapse. That way they can have their collapse and their cushy standard of living based on mass consumerism and unprecedented luxuries too. I'm not saying that the slow collapsers are wrong and I am right about a quick collapse. What I am thinking is that we have already seen the long slow collapse part and we are slowly approaching the cliff edge where we will suddenly without warning fall off.
The above mentioned article was about our occupation of the oil region. It got me thinking that this would compel the Cassandras to think we can hang on for a long time since this is true. But my bet would be on this grace period already having been enjoyed and passed by. The benefits are not to be seen now in order to save us but have already been at work. We've occupied the strategic heartland of Arabian oil for over six years. Global Peak Oil has been going on for four years ( remember what I said about a nation would not burn food for fuel if a decrease wasn't happening? ). Now, I don't know how long the global petroleum peak production plateau will last, but I don't think we can hope for very much longer given the recent records. And remember, the downside of the bell curve is pretty steep. One good reason that the lower 48 oil figures have slowly declined over three decades is that prior to peak the Texas Railroad Commission regulated production at a low level that extended most fields lives. Saudi Arabia has done a lot to damage their fields and will fall much quicker ( if you can slog through it, "Twilight In The Desert" does an excellent job debunking the Saudis As Saviors myth ).
All historical examples of population crash have been agricultural economies. The examples of two hundred to three hundred years of crash duration were based on soil depletion and weather and conquest on a long drawn out time scale. All through the history of agriculture overpopulation, famine and die-offs were normal. They could rebound, recuperate, carry on. Unless one series of misfortunes after another kept hitting the same group. That took time. Petroleum Man will die in a much more compressed time period because oil field depletion happens quickly. And petroleum feeds almost all of us. Just because we occupy the lands that produce the last of the oil doesn't mean spit. For one thing, look at how easy it has been to sabotage the Iraqi production. I think the main effect was simply to deny our enemies the oil rather than get it for ourselves. So our cliff face is in the same spot and we got no where building a bridge over the chasm.
I'm coming up on a year here in Elko. Look, you triumphantly point out, Jim panicked way too early. I have plenty of time to drive my SUV and live in my mortgaged house and work for XYZ corporation. I can get out before it all turns to a big steaming pile of dung. Let me ask you this. How much easier is it going to be to talk the wife into moving off grid in another year? If we are worse off but still limping along, she will pull out the green shoots argument again, just as you are doing now. And by the time it is obvious to both you and her that things won't return to normal you will have lost all the assets needed to move. If we have already been through years and years of long slow collapse, how close is the cliff edge? You can move as slow as you wish towards that cliff, but once over you can't control the speed. Who cares if you are a year or three early? Almost any gardener/farmer you talk to will tell you how many multiple harvests it takes to become proficient. I had to go through a miserable winter ( remember the normal twenty two degrees inside I bitched about? ) before I insulated the trailer. Not because I didn't know it would be a good idea but because these things take time. Getting settled isn't instant ( it can be close, a topic more another day ), it takes trial and error in everything you do from energy use to sewage to transportation.
Y2K was the only potential disaster we were ever going to have a calender for. No one knows for sure when it will be too late. But you do need to know your history before you guess the future. Make sure we haven't been in a collapse before you figure we have plenty of time to go.
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