depopulation

DEPOPULATION
Now, I realize everyone is entitled to their view. As long as it agrees with mine. Okay, relax, I'm joking. It wasn't so long ago that I wasn't so gloomy. I was the "a year of food and a gun and water filter and you can survive a short term disruption" kind of guy. Yes, I grew up during the Evil Empire looming over us and had a fear of nuclear war like all red blooded Americans who were trained to support the military industrial complex by hating the mythical monster from the east. But I didn't worry so much about it. I didn't have a fallout shelter and what not. It was a real enough threat, but it was a low probability worry. Just like an asteroid hitting the planet or Yellowstone erupting. I would have left Florida with or without sea level worries just because of the population ( an asteroid has a higher probability of hitting the Pacific anyway ). And Yellowstone is about as much of a worry as the poles suddenly flipping ( in other words, not enough to worry about even though I wouldn't live in Wyoming just in case ).
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What pretty much changed my mind was continued study into eco-systems, carry capacity, resources and energy. Here we faced not a low probability event but a slam dunk sure thing, with only the timing in question. So, once again proving that too much knowledge is a dangerous thing and indeed ignorance is bliss, I researched myself into a much greater sense of worry and despair. Thanks a lot for subsidizing my book purchases, damn you all. Whenever anyone comes up with the magic bullet that is going to save us, from vats of algae to thousands of nuclear power plants that assume we'll never run out of uranium ( for awhile now the big part of the nuke power supply has been from decommissioned Soviet missiles ) to further centralizing government ( you still need resources for that ), I feel bad that I can't share in your misguided hope. I want to believe, but my glass has been half empty for a long time now. We are, indeed, going to die. A horrible and elongated death. If you want to continue the fantasy of eternal middle class leisure existence, almost every other survival/prep site is eagerly awaiting you as a new reader. All this to say, yes, a die off will happen. Now let's see about a few more details.
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It has been estimated that the maximum number of hunter/gatherers before the widespread adaptation of agriculture was three to four million. It has also been estimated that the maximum number of people a post-oil planet can support is a billion. That is ONE billion, not the current almost seven billion we are supporting almost exclusively through petroleum. Even a sensible organic run system is not a closed loop. You still need to import some soil inputs. It isn't a huge amount, but entropy always rules. There is nothing to replace oil. You gathering the neighbors leaves for your garden only works because the three hundred thousand people surrounding you get there food from oil instead of fallen leaves compost. And the one billion number assumes the soil hasn't been degraded feeding six billion, which it has, and an existing low tech agriculture infrastructure, which we don't have in the First World nations by and large ( although I'm sure there are exceptions to prove the rule ). The hunter/gatherer numbers are even more optimistic because there is no more game and plants to feed that many. As humans expanded, they had existing huge land areas that were unexploited. We no longer have that.
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Being a hunter picking berries is a pretty cool gig. You work an average of a few hours a day, then sit around scratching your lice and checking out the bra less boobs swinging low, clicking your tongue is a weird speech pattern. Talk about slackers! That is elevating leisure to an art form. So, there is no way people decided to start farming, which is quite a step down. Instead of moving to a new area when food gets low, you are stuck in one area and there is no back up to a crop failure. Plus, you work eighteen hours a day. And not at a fun job like going to kill something for a tasty BBQ but raising grains and beans which fall through the grill and aren't too suitable for a backyard picnic. No, after tens or hundreds of thousands of years slowly moving into new areas, that three million population one day found that there was no more wilderness unclaimed. So a slow increase in domesticating wild grains and animals began to increase what food was available in a fixed area. It was a slow but insidious process, unnoticed because it was merely a series of survival strategies slowly unfolding. But the end result was being farmers under the yoke of a king, subject to starving during bad weather.
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If the earth could once again only support hunter/gatherers, we would be in for a huge die off, due to the low numbers of surviving wild game. Something like 99% plus a lot of numbers following the decimal point. That wouldn't be too much fun. It would be like the novel "The Road" ( and you think I'm gloomy ) where the population that is left turns to cannibalism until no one is left ( okay, the book didn't end like that, but it was pretty plain that was the end result in a endless winter type of aftermath ). And the one billion is too high because we don't have the soil or infrastructure. So figure a number in between the two somewhere. We will still be able to farm unless close to 100% are killed off. Then it would be easier to resume the traditional living arrangement of our ancestors. But if enough people survive the Post Oil Dark Ages, farming will be necessary. At least in the fertile wet regions. The arid west will revert to hundreds of miles per person population as herding will be the only option. Regardless of where you live and what you plan on afterwards, you need several years of food per person. To survive the die off, of around 99%, and to cushion during the rebuilding, I would recommend at least two or three years of grains ( and hopefully legumes ) per person. Cheap enough. Cheap enough that if we never see a die off it is not money wasted ( it will be if you try to afford freeze dried and MRE's ).
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A mass die off might seem like a low probability event. It might be. But running short of resources for six billion is a sure thing. Only the timing and how it unfolds are up to conjecture. Do yourself a favor and assume the worse.
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