new agri empire

NEW AGRI EMPIRE
China, through rise and fall of empire after empire ( or perhaps it is dynasty after dynasty ) always faces the same foe. The nomads from over the mountains ( or, in some spots, over the wall ). The herders from the plains constantly try to pillage the farmland and its riches, and the Chinese resist whichever flavor of the year is trying to steal from them. There is a reason the players always change but the fight is always the same. The two systems are incompatible due to the climate and geography. Climate determines how your livelihood is secured. This might seem obvious to anyone throughout history, but our Oil Age has allowed us to confuse this issue. There is no way that half of the US is ever going to stay welded to the other half. One part is good only for nomads and grazing and the other half will support farming. The only reason the two coexist now is cheap energy to pump water and cheap transportation to send the goods of both to one another. Come the collapse, the Great Basin desert and southern desert ( either extending into Old Mexico or extending up from that country, it is hard to say where the new boundaries will be in the wasteland ) will be the new Mongolia and the East will be the new China.
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There is a perfectly good reason that the two different systems don't merge. The Chinese invaders can't grow anything, and the nomad invaders are absorbed into the farming society. The cultures are different, because culture grows up around the climate to help secure survival. This is something we've covered before. You can't expect different economic/survival systems to work in another environment. In time, I expect that the Yankees will drift back towards agriculture. They might have the small local hydro sites, but they have little to no coal or iron ore deposits left that are suitable for primitive mining. There should be small industries using that power, perhaps recycling metal. But the locals should be pretty much growing most of their own food. The East is well suited for water transport and industrial areas can be supported from some distance away, but first you must assume a lack of warfare and a stable society. The eastern US will not go from peaceful information/oil economy to peaceful agriculture/small scale industry. There will be war and conflict in between. Before a new agri empire emerges, there must be conflict for the spoils. One assumes transforming the plains into the bread basket has allowed a lot of coastal area soils to rest and refurbish themselves ( otherwise all bets are off about the areas survivability ).
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The overseas importation of cotton growing should also have given the Souths soils a time to recover. That, and the eventual tearing down of suburbia will allow a lot of farmland to go into production. Not soon enough to prevent famine as the oil runs out, but in time the east will again regain some of their population with most soil in production. I think that the long periods of time after the collapse when the area is fought over should establish a tradition of local agricultural self reliance, despite the ability of crops to be cheaply transported in by water. The ore and coal factor is a big question mark in the north's ability to engage in anything other than farming. On the other hand, it will be vital if the east will rise as a empire. You need a arms manufacturing ability to conquer and stay in power. But even manufacturing areas will grow their own food by new tradition. The water transport will enable manufactured goods to be shipped out, rather than crops to be brought in. The area is too rich is rainfall to be neglected for food. Granted, some areas have poor soil, such as New England which had turned to fishing to compensate. But, the oceans having been depleted, it seems more likely that with new French Intensive methods that the area could produce. Perhaps there will need to be soil building materials imported in, but the manufacturing income could pay for that ( plus leave a tidy profit-without coal, hydro power is going to be it and be a valuable resource ).
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From the Sierra mountains to the Rockies, a vast stretch of land is pretty much useless for anything but grazing once oil inputs cease. Even then, vast stretches won't even be useful for that. The few sources of water will be where all life clusters. Depending on how Gore Warming unfolds, the plains areas might also be closed to farming. If the natural rainfall isn't enough for dry farming the whole area will perhaps revert to a buffer zone between the farmers and the herders. Southern California is naturally a desert, and the irrigation is petroleum power dependant. That will revert to wasteland. Up close to Sacramento farming is possible, and then north up along the coast. Perhaps up in Canada and then down into Idaho. It is easy to map the new countries, according to rainfall. The only question is how far the buffer zones extend. And, no, I don't see just two countries, or empires. It will be several waring factions in each zone. Even after villages and towns fight each other during the collapse and powerful warlords emerge to control vast holdings, I'm sure the borders will always fluctuate. More like several states in Europe instead of one holding like China.
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To see in what general direction your area will lean, just trace the water source. The Mississippi delta, for instance, can become one large empire because of the single water source. Mountain chains will be natural borders. Cultures will closely follow climate. You need to strip away what oil makes possible to see where your future is. Perhaps not ours. Our future is war, famine and death. But perhaps your grandchildren will have that future. The best stockpiled hoarder will eventually run out of supplies, and the two choices will be farming or nomadism. And don't think you can maintain an island of one surrounded by the other. You will be assimilated into your areas Borg.
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