BARBARIANS AT THE GATE
A comment yesterday stated that our import decline in oil was a demand rather than a supply problem. While it would be nice to believe that, since all it would take to solve that problem would be to employ every single unemployed worker as a Statsi informant for any Constitutional thought or speech about freedom ( the Peoples Republic will not stand for guns, peaceful assembly or criticism of banker bailouts ), the problems started at the peak of global oil production in 2005. Since then liquid petroleum has declined and ethanol and shale oil has increased. Even with Canada counting tar sand juice as petroleum ( and Venezuela also reclassifying their production of heavy tars as regular oil ). It is not the Depression dampening demand, it is falling production ushering in the Depression. China might be buying some of the oil we don’t, but we still have petroleum substitution and exporters increasing domestic use to lead to a global decline of available energy for the US. Which brings us to today’s article, the break up of Obammy’s Socialist Paradise.
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Partially because it is a cool boy toy and partially out of great fear that welfare mobs will storm their suburban McMansion and steal the giant screen plasma, those sullying the name of survivalism are hoarding vast quantities of semi-automatic weapons, magazines and ammunition ( nothing wrong with that per se, but if you are serious about surviving you need food, and lots of it-guns don’t feed you, and historically control was always through food ). They fear a dictatorship out of DC and want to repel jack booted thugs from boarding their compounds. Now, I have already stated that a centralization of government is impossible in an energy decline, but that mostly applied to the fear of a One World Government. The good news for the semi gun nuts is that they will soon get their wish, and that they might even be successful. While it is true that long term government won’t be able to centralize, that won’t stop them from trying. And since they need an excess of energy and equipment to fight, it also means that decentralized forces will prevail over them eventually.
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Rome had a huge amount of problems all through its existence. But they weren’t brought down for good until they exhausted the soils of the empire and their overpopulation crashed. We also suffer from imperial overreach and inflation and corruption and a welfare state out of control ( no, no, not you Seniors-since you are “owed” it and since it is only “fair”, somehow you don’t contribute to the problem and somehow the treasury will yield an impossible amount to support you ). But as soon as we don’t have enough petroleum inputs to substitute for our depleted soil, it is game over. Then, the revolution can begin. The barbarians will start to gather at the gates. And the American Empire will crumble. And just as Rome turned into a small village amongst the ruins, unable to support even a fraction of its former inhabitants, NYC and DC and the other Oil Cities will become ghost towns good only for salvage. They will recover, at least partially, as their former pre-oil locations were ideal for trade or manufacture ( of course, we are discounting new cities such as LA, Vegas or Phoenix that need pumped water ).
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Now, I’m not advocating revolution. Regardless of what the Declaration Of Independence or Constitution claim, it is now illegal to fight for limited and just government. Okay, I get that. No need to rendition me to Syria. I’m merely saying that come famine, revolution is going to happen. Not by you or me of course. It would be silly to fight for an old ideal that however noble was based on a continents worth of unexploited resources. I honestly doubt that a resource scarce country can support individual freedom and capitalism. Feudalism is the natural order in a scarcity situation. Enjoy hoeing beets for the new king. There is nothing wrong with fighting to save your family and tribe. In fact, it is expected of you as a male. Rightly so. But it is a whole different kettle of fish going to war to overthrow a tyrant, only to see a more local dictator starve out your family. Why endanger yourself getting rid of a distant king if the one next door is just as bad? The militia weirdo’s will have their fantasies come true, and they can shoot BATF kitten stompers to their hearts delight. Then, we doomers can have our fantasies come true as we fight each other for the last can of pickled pigs scrotum. Fun stuff, just ahead.
END
Friday, December 11, 2009
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Rereading my comment from yesterday it seems I left out the words "current" and "immediate." I wasn't trying to imply that total stocks aren't falling or that we're not in trouble. They are falling and we are in trouble. But, currently we have an oversupply of oil, not an undersupply and our current import numbers need to be read in that light. Sooner or later that situation will reverse it's self and our immediate demand for oil will not be met by our immediate supply.
Our difference in opinion seems to be how soon a supply and demand reversal will happen (2012) and how bad things will get when that does happen (Mexico's government falls do to lack of income from oil exports, our southern border turns into the wild southwest) not that it will happen.
FYI - Saudi Aramco cut back production 25% (4 million b/d)....they employ little if any technology. They have found new fields that aren't being tapped due to the fall off in demand.
Kitten-stomping BATF agents?
Hilarious!
I want a small serfdom close to the Bison Compound. I will make my surfs pay the Bison Tax.
Great post jim!
"Regardless of what the Declaration Of Independence or Constitution claim, it is now illegal to fight for limited and just government. Okay, I get that. No need to rendition me to Syria."
Those words are sad but true.Its fair to note:Being "illegal" and being wrong are not the same.
Had our founding fathers failed in there plan, they would have been criminals.
Being right is righteous: The victors make the rules.
To be victorious is to be right.
Don't worry Jim, there's plenty of doom to go around.
With the closing of refineries on the east coast, the east coast is getting really dependent on the Colonial & Plantation Pipe Lines from the gulf for oil products. Another CAT 5 hurricane in the gulf could spell all sorts of misery on the east coast. And with just in time manufacturing problems else where in the country when we can't get things we need because there's no oil to make them or diesel to ship them.
On the bright side, we wouldn't have to worry about hoards of people fleeing the east coast, 'cause they'd all be out of gas!
It looks like we dodged a bit of a bullet. There's going to be enough water in the lower Colorado River to have a rice crop next year (yep we grow rice in the desert!) and there will be enough water in Lake Mead to keep the turbines turning in Hoover Dam. Look for a big migration of folks out of Phoenix, Tucson and Vegas (and the potential for destabilization where ever they arrive in mass) when electricity gets spotty. Which it will. But, it looks like we've got at least another year on that one.
We're still on the plateau at the top of Hubert's Curve. The longer the global economy stays in the shitter the longer we'll be on the plateau. How's that for irony- as long as things stay shitty, they wont get super, extra, shitty.
Mexico's Cantarell field peaked in '04-05 and is predicted to stabilize @ 500,000 BPD in 2012. I'm thinking, if the field continues to decline instead of stabilizing this is where the really fun stuff starts.
See there's still lots that can go wrong.
You can keep the pickled pigs scrotum, but stay away from my sauerkraut or your a goner.
Yeah but abiotic oil is a proven fact!!
Just ask Dubai....
"Had our founding fathers failed in there plan, they would have been criminals."
actually most of them were criminals. washington was a gigolo, franklin was a serial rapist and british double agent, jefferson was a rapist, jackson "bought" land from the government for nothing and sold it to speculators for a tidy profit.
and they ALL, went and bought up worthless continental currency from the troops for pennies on the dollar and then passed a law redeeming it for 'full value'....
(see: FINANCES AND FINANCIERS OF THE AMERICAN REVOLUTION )
however, frankly they were intellectual and moral giants in comparison to the current slime mold living in the caverns of washington d.c.
GREETINGS,4.11.44,
I can not attest to there caracater.
My point is that in a revolution the victor makes the rules.
If one were to loos a revolution
one would be a 'criminal', for participating.
( no, no, not you Seniors-since you are “owed” it and since it is only “fair”, somehow you don’t contribute to the problem and somehow the treasury will yield an impossible amount to support you ).
I. at 62 yrs old, yeald to no one, I have saved and stored and planned. Don,t put all seniors in the same boat. There are a lot of us you you will wish you had on your side. You will need our experience and wisdom.
we fight each other for the last can of pickled pigs scrotum.
Sounds delicious!I never knew men could can such things.
Do you prefer wine or beer with that?
Bill- I don't discount the value of seniors. A twenty year old is too stupid to pour piss out of a boot. The eighty year old is too feeble to do it. Together, they make it work. My issue is with seniors claiming SS is anything other than welfare.
SS and welfare Its strange in our country today we have switch the terminology to something like 'cash assistance benefits'= welfare. The line of thinking is, I think by adding the word 'benefits' some how makes it ok.
To me, a rule of thumb to define 'welfare' is any program applied to a person from application that only requires your existence to qualify.
Oddly, welfare is welfare SS is not entirely because it requires an amount be paid before 'benefits' are received.
Like wise, high paying government jobs are largely filled by 'minority' 'need' requiring that the person merely exist as a minority to receive the 'benefits' of employment.
Not that I dont get Lord Jim's point;I get it: for the government to take from one and give to another is welfare.
Im only making the point that welfare and government employment are more alike than most realize.
SS is slightly different. All have the same end result of a Bankrupt government.
Im NOT saying DONT take it if you can get it.......The bankers didn't have a problem taking their welfare or "bonuses" , so get what you can before the ship sinks.
I have more to say, but I get in trouble for making long comments.Maybe it would help to butter him up.
Jim, I noticed your hair is especially vibrant and flowing these days.
Was that so hard? No. Just praise my hair before disagreeing with me. Christ, like it's rocket science or something!
Saudi Aramco uses water and nitrogen injection and bottlebrush drilling techniques heavily Yophat, your information is sadly incorrect.
Saudi production has fallen from an unsustainable, all hands on deck, call in the derricks from wherever we can get them 10.4 mbpd to 8.4 mbpd, hardly a 25% fall.
http://www.thenational.ae/article/20090621/BUSINESS/706219954/-1/opinion
Likewise, an increasingly quantity of what they are pumping are condensates, not actual crude.
Ghawar output is nearly 80% water today.
The House of Saud relies on oil revenue for 85% of it's income, and their production cut is not voluntary.
http://www.hedgeco.net/news/10/2009/logi-energy-determines-saudi-oil-production-has-peaked.html
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2331
Rome had pretty much stopped procreating by the time of their collapse. A society that believes nothing passes on its beliefs to nobody. For decades already, they had been leaving their "unwanted" infants to die of hypothermia or be eaten by wild dogs. Now they're just sliced apart with curettes, in utero.
"Overpopulation," (whatever that means. Read Julian Simon's book The Greatest Resource) was not a contributing factor to the collapse of the Roman empire.
As I clearly showed before, a high population density does not equal poverty. You know as well as I that a particularly socialist State is what causes poverty.
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