Thursday, December 31, 2009

five year plan

FIVE YEAR PLAN


Before we start today, a word from our sponsor. My changeover from gift certificate to cash deposit from Amazon sales didn’t go through in time so I got one more batch of books. Next month I’ll have the cash in my hot little hands. Now, even though I’ll no longer be exclusively buying books with my Amazon commission like I have for over two years you are still donating to a worthy cause. Some of the money will still go to books because life simply isn’t worth living without buying books ( after the Apocalypse I’ll break into my paperback stash of hundreds- mostly crap fiction I got for a nickel to a quarter each ) and some will go to Bison Compound projects. I ordered another copy of The $50 And Up Underground House ( my last copy is lost or missing in action ). I am seriously wanting to build a Unibomber Shack come Spring. So even if some cash goes to lumber you still benefit from my writing about it. On the back burner ( I don’t know if I’ll get around to it ) is reloading a small number of cartridges continuously, just to test for myself how many reloadings I can do with the Enfield sloppy action. You can pretty much shoot anywhere around here as long as it isn’t too close to a dwelling and you have a backdrop. I ordered Wayne Goddards $50 Knife Workshop book. I don’t know if I’ll actually ever build a knife but it sounds like a good reference book. Nine months after a minion recommendation I’m finally ordering Nourishing Traditions, which I believe debunks the “eat only veggies or die” diet books. And for fun I ordered Arktos: The Polar Myth and Reich Of The Black Sun. Another thing to keep in mind about my Amazon commissions is that I rarely get paid for the stuff I recommend. People use my links and go shopping for other stuff. Just in case it worries you I’m profiting by recommending things I don’t think are minion worthy.

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The Soviets were pretty big on Five Year Plans. They rarely worked out so I think the time frame was meant to erase most peoples memories. But they were meant to convey Big Changes For The Better. In our Five Year Plan, things definitely won’t be for the better. I was nosing around Creekmores site (http://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/ ) hoping to steal something and came across the comments section for his cheap solar setup article ( actually written better than mine, damn it ). A flippant comment about using the thin film panels was made to the effect that they lasted only five years and so should be avoided. Now, I immediately thought this was silly. If we were just talking about frugal living off grid, yes, it is smarter to buy the better made crystal type. They might cost twice as much but they will last three to five times as long. But we are talking about survivalism here. Planning for the end of civilization. And frugal survivalism at that. It is better to buy Better Than Nothing now rather than having nothing come the crash because you were holding out for better quality. Then you just have a pile of worthless Greenbacks. But that isn’t even the best point. Your batteries only last five years! If you bought thirty year panels but your batteries die in five, what was the point? If commerce is undisrupted then you can buy another cheap panel or battery. If we are living in smoldering piles of rubble, a battery fed light is the least of your problems.

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Come the collapse, you need to keep in mind the Five Year Plan. In five years, pretty much everything you are using now is gone. All your ammunition has been used up. All your storage food is gone ( even with lots of grain and supplementing with a garden and game ). Your batteries are dead, and the supply of used batteries from cars has already been sold and seen an early failure ( a car battery will have a very short life already used and not being designed for alternate energy use like a marine battery would be [ yes, there are better batteries but a marine/RV battery combines affordability with Good Enough performance ] ). Your clothes are most likely still okay, with all the extras you got from garage sales and thrift stores. Same with cheap footware. But they most likely are wearing out quickly due to prolonged use and inadequate cleaning. Even if you find treated gasoline it is already turned to turpentine. Your duct tape is a slimy glob. Everything you are used to and love is failing as entropy speeds up and attacks with a vengeance.

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I don’t think the Kurt Saxon Cottage Industry Plan is viable as envisioned. It tries to replicate a positive energy economy while we will be in an energy deficit situation. It is a good start, but don’t bet on being left alone to practice your earth friendly family business. Odds are the Kings men will be knocking at your door with a tax receipt and an introduction to the Guild Master. I know I need to focus more on the post collapse life after the Industrial Age prep items are all used up. It isn’t an easy row to how, knowing that particle future, even for me. But certain big picture items are clear, such as how far we will fall. The question is just in the details. All for now. Have a safe New Years celebration. I’ll be posting tomorrow as I’m coming into work for a few hours for food pick-ups.

END

My Web Page http://www.bisonpress.com/

16 comments:

Buzz Kimball said...

just some contrarian viewpoints.

>In five years, pretty much everything you are using now is gone.

actually the commies in china have their own solution to their unemployment (and social unrest) problem: keep the factories running and build warehouses for all the extra stuff they can't sell...

so, NO, doesn't look like MaoMart is going to run out of cheap overpriced junk in this century...

counterintuitve, just like 'hyperinflation' isn't in the foreseeable future as the FED can still FIX THE FUND RATE. maybe 10 or 20 years of economic stagnation will destroy the almighty amerikan buck thru attrition, but hyperinflation, probably not.

>don’t bet on being left alone to practice your earth friendly family business.

well, we already have zoning ordinances and licenses that keep you locked into wage slave drudgery for the corprations, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't have a good shop with some tools and some materials to do repairs when you can. get lots of different types of GLUE. as the old great depression adage went:
"USE IT UP, FIX IT, OR DO WITHOUT"....

turn off the flippin' GLASS TOILET and fix some of your broken junk before you pop the top and get hammered !!!

BUCK SEXTON said...

Good point, its better to have cheap pannels than no pannels. There is no getting around the battery problem, every thing has it own lifespan.

It seems reasonable (to me) that after 5 years of living post collapse, we will have adapted better to living without power. So a cheap power system to supply some power, will help to wean-off the old life.

Personally my power usage is convenience and entertainment. When there is no radio or TV stations, no internet, or phone service power will not be needed as much. The only thing I would miss would be power tools and DVD.

If I could chose between living as it is, and living in the dark;lack of power is a bargain.

HAPPY NEW YEAR, Every body!!!!!!!
I hope every body gets whats theirs in the next year!

theotherryan said...

I dunno. To be honest I think most survivalists worry too much about ammo. Running out of .22 and small game loads for the shotgun is far more realistic than center fire pistol and rifle ammo or defensive shotgun ammo.

Any survivalist worth his salt has at least a couple cases of rifle and pistol ammo stashed. In conservation mode (aimed shots only) for home/ farm defensive engagements I thing luck would run out way before the ammo in the cans would.

Then again on my list for this year is a few cases of center fire rifle and pistol ammo. I would really rather buy more than I need and run out. I see far more of my ammo stash going to cross leveling to load up friends who didn't stock up and training a couple newbies than shooting people coming to steal the last box of Crispix in the world.

M.D. Creekmore said...

Good post. All we are doing with our preps is buying time and providing a cushion against collapse. If we suffer a total collapse and it lasts long enough we will all eventually end up at the same place.

And by the way; I thought your post was better than mine...

Michael said...

I'm with Buck on the re-org; but then I'm way more of a long decliner than a doomer.

Good point that we need to think about stuff breaking and wearing/running out.

I have a few hand tools that belonged to great uncles, the newest ones were probably made in the late 50's. Comparing those old tools with my new stuff, I think the old stuff will outlast the new. I've started to poke around in antique and junk stores for old hand tools.

James m Dakin said...

Creekmore- perhaps its a good thing we like each others better. It will keep us trying harder so all my minions may bask in my greatness. You're not allowed to bask, sorry :)

Watonga Jim said...

I'm a long time reader and believe we all need to be more self sustained, however, from a purely energy perspective, the US has enough natural gas to power our economy for the next 100 years if/when we choose to use it. Our quality of life may decrease but I don't see the zombies coming anytime soon

oldsubotai said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
BUCK SEXTON said...

We will have propane!This is excellent news indeed!

After the dollar collapses, and OPEC has refused further oil shipments to a dead broke nation. And the tension spills over to a full blown revolution. There's no food because the farms required mechanization to produce sustainable quantities. Our leader long gone; The elders of villages say he took Air Force One, and went back to Kenya. Our government was annihilated long ago, now clashes with invading China and Russian troops are common. (our army is ragtag, our bolt action rifles have long since run out of ammo, we have butter knives taped to the barrels.)

We can still watch our DVD's at home from our propane generated electricity.Some times sitting there in a cave watching TV,one almost forgets he's in a full blown collapse.

Jim will be glad to hear about the propane power, his hair dryer will still work!

You know what I'm think'in FUCK the government I can have a revolution and keep my TV too....

BUCK SEXTON said...

O I forgot Happy New Year to the Commonwealth of the New World Order.

Speedgene said...

I was thinking some smart guy might stock the lead etc to build batt's or build them using old batt cases. I must look into this. A home made batt could keep the lite on in the Bison compound.

BUCK SEXTON said...

Hay, does anybody remember the potato batteries in science class? :)

The potato farmers will be the man to know.

BUCK SEXTON said...

I just had an idea!
When Obama gives everybody there backyard windmill power generation unit, you could use your potato battery:

http://www.science-projects-resources.com/how-to-make-a-potato-battery.html

The potatoes will run your cafe latte machine, when the power unit is not in-use charging your Prius.

The hair drier will be limited. Though All Gore could just blow on them ( you can find him hanging out in the men's rest room).
Or they could just enslave the skilled work force (non-government tax payers) To fan dry the government class worker.

MAHTOMEDI said...

After the batteries are shot you could just use a stationary bike generator like the ones health clubs once had to power TV's. Stop pedaling and the TV stops. An inverter or ac/dc DVD and VHS players can be powered the same way. (I'm stocking up on VHS tapes - they last way longer. I have some nearly 25 years old that still play perfect)

Get Black Dog or Wildflower in a neck-iron and you'll have someone to do the pedaling. Sorry, that was the beer talking.

Happy New Year to all the minions on one of the best comment boards in the blogosphere.

chinasyndrome said...

James and creekmore, Thanks for all the info. Buck I really like that takin airforce one back to kenya!! Yeah!

Heckinahandbasket said...

There are 30+ year batteries available, they are Nickel Iron or otherwise known as Edison Cells. Unfortunately at the moment there is only 1 US distributor and they obtain them from China.

It seems that no manufacturer here in the NAU has any interest in producing a battery that doesn't have to be replaced every 5 years.


There are banks of Nickel Iron batteries out there still running near full capacity since the 1930's.
Unlike pretty much every other battery out there, these batteries love to be abused.

AFAIK the only other alternative on the horizon is supercapacitors, but at the moment are still largely made out of unobtainium.