Tuesday, February 23, 2010

emergency self sufficient

EMERGENCY SELF SUFFICIENT


If you were visiting http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html on February 22, 2010, there is a damn fine rant on unrealistic expectations from readers. To put words into the authors mouth, which I like to do since by declaring that I’m just kidding I can both cover my butt and make fun at the same time so as to cause small children to gaze in wonder and women to swoon in desire, readers are asshats that shouldn’t expect 40 hours of work a week for free and that the author is what he is and you need to get a life and deal with it. Now, I can absolutely relate to unrealistic reader expectations ( “what do you mean you’re not spending 20 a week writing, twenty hours a week using your own money to build experimental projects and another twenty to read about how much you suck the peanuts out of my spoor?” ), but in reality the life of an author long before the Internet sucked. You had to put forth a lot of free effort and time to practice the art, then you had to put forth publish-worthy material on consignment and then you only had a 1% chance of success anyway. You write out of a little love and a lot of psychosis. Not for the money. Anyway, I don’t know if the article had anything to do with my “drinking the Grape Kool-Aid of optimism” article, I might be flattering myself I’m ever known. But he did spend a lot of time debunking the notion of government stepping aside while mutant zombie bikers raped and pillaged. So, for the record, and to lead up to today’s article, government itself will never disappear, but it will change shape to a smaller, more local unit. The centralized state is going to disappear, not government. We go right back to the question of oil and energy.

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Today’s article questions the US government’s ability to survive on its own energy supply. Can our government, through means foul or fair, survive on its own oil supply. The above author seems to think it will be as easy as pie to ration five and a half million barrels of oil a day to keep the helicopters flying to suppress dissent and keep order. Now, with all due respect, that Grape Kool-Aid must have had a light dusting of crack in it, because that is pure poppycock my dear fellows. The math is so simple that I’m in immediate danger of being unable to stretch out this article to the normal 800-1k words. Not that I ever really Honest Injun need that many words to describe anything I talk about. I know there are a lot of minions that pray to their gods that I would just shut the hell up and get to the point. But, alas, my unnecessary length provides the illusion of wisdom and depth of thought and I ain’t giving that up any time soon. Besides, sometimes a proper insult takes up quite a bit of space. We produce five and a half million barrels a day of our own oil. Let’s ignore continual depletion and net energy loss substitutes and just call it 51/2 million a day for the foreseeable future. You know, the time when the die-off is happening. The last time I saw the figures, we used a fifth of our TOTAL energy, imports included, to grow and transport and process our food. It was actually 18%, but I rounded it up as that figure did not include home cooking or personal energy expended for shopping, or, one presumes, driving down to the Colonels for a bucket. And that figure was given when our daily use was about an even twenty million barrels a day ( now down to around 17 or 18 after three continual years of imports decline-gee, I wonder if that would have anything to do with our economic depression? ).

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One fifth of twenty million is four million. Our food supply takes four million barrels a day. And, the last time I checked, our military was calculated to consume a bit under a half million barrels a day. Most of that being aircraft fuel. The kind of fuel you use to fly around and pop a missile into a surrounded group of rioters ( if you read the above article, that reference will make sense ). We pump five and a half million barrels of fuel a day. We use four and a half for nothing else except feeding ourselves and moving the military around. And that leaves a whopping one million gallons of oil a day to keep our entire economy going. Now, granted, a lot of that military juice is used overseas to keep our oil imports flowing in. But even if we take out the fuel used by the military and shave a bit off the food needs as we conserve or reduce waste, we are still using over half of our domestic production of energy just to feed ourselves. And we really can’t reduce the military figure, now can we? A lot of energy will be needed to pacify a domestic populace that is freezing in their immobile cars after they lost their homes. Those living in their homes have no heat. Even if we nationalized food and made sure everyone was fed ( which assumes there would be no decrease in efficiency due to government control-HA! ), there wouldn’t be enough energy left to have anyone employed.

*

And remember, all this assumes a functioning government, as if we won’t riot until we are all homeless and desperate. While it is true that for the most part most people won’t take up arms until they are starving, there will still be a few million that act ahead of time to counter the imposed national dictatorship. Not to mention those that fly planes into government building after they lose their pension funds. While we will see a nationalization of energy at the end, it won’t be effective. By then, the military won’t have its current capabilities. Nor will our dollar be anything other than toilet paper or camp fire starter. Remember, centralization requires an energy surplus. So, relax and skip your next militia meeting. The federal government is going to fail on its own. Even with all the oil.

END

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16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Calm down.

Take one fifth of the bottle of pills your shrink prescribe (prozac) and go to bed.

Sure good authors take time to write those books and you can buy them for a dollar a bag (Library book sales)and you can buy a whole encyclopedia for ten bucks.

the question is: how much your book is worth to other people (not to yourself).

You can fool some people some of the time. But you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

Anonymous said...

Just prove's we need fast reactor's and electric car's. Fast reactor's can use old fuel,electric car's can reduce gas demand.A no brainer to me.

Anonymous said...

Oil is not going to be running out anytime soon.
Well. Not for those willing to pay for it. Yes, all of the light sweet crude is gone. However the nasty tougher stuff is still in abundance, if the price is right. As the price of oil keeps going up then "wonders of wonders" new "old" fields can be brought online as long as there is a nice profit margin.
We have already seen this.... Poof!!! Tar Sands, the new Canadian oil rush. Poof!! Frac Shale Rock production is seen in the near future. (if the price is nice)
Of course each discovery is dependent on the price of oil reaching margin profit points of 100.00 to 200.00 per barrel. Heck, go for the big one, 500.00 a barrel. :) Oh, there will be oil for a long time, 50 plus years and beyond. However, normal people will have nothing. Not likely that any of us "middle class" could afford to spend 10,000 to fill our oil furnaces for a chilly winter. What about electricity? Well once all the environmentalists are declared terrorist enemy combatants, coal fired power plants should start coming online. I expect to see alot of them. But what about the effect on the environment for the future? Not a problem, if offered a choice, people would choose coal fired electricity over freezing death anytime. :) Food? Well that should be interesting. Will the government nationalize one of the major junk food chains to supply the citizens with cheap, highly processed "food", or will the US die-off begin from hunger? Dunno.
Oh, never you fear, the government will still have priority access to oil and so will the upper 1% of our economy. Cars, planes, trains and trucks won't completely dissapear, if you work for the government, military or one of the surviving mega-corporations.
As the price increases, multiple wars start worldwide because oil produced food will diminish and we should of course see a few nukes going off here or there in the world. After all, countries with nothing to lose have nothing to lose. I would suggest you don't build your sustainable living abode anywhere downwind from a major US city.

Anonymous said...

Renewable energy sources will be used in the future. Energy production will be more regionalized, e.g. areas that are suitable for wind power will use that, areas that are suitable for solar, like Mr. Bison's area, will use that, areas that are suitable for hydroelectric will use that. Other areas will use nuclear. I also think mass transit, with electric rails, will be used rather than personal vehicles. The future looks brighter and cleaner!

Anonymous said...

doublemind has spoken.

stockpiling is selfish.
Guns are bad.
The collective is everything
We are the Gov. were here to help
Resistance is futile.
You are safe,the government
is everywhere.

Hey, one guy hated me so much he even called me a conservative.

Dewey

Anonymous said...

Oil price doesnt matter. Look up EROEI .They could charge a million a barrel, but if it takes more energy than is in one barrel to extract a barrel from the ground then the game is over. Bye the way JD the blog topics still suck.

vlad said...

http://tinyurl.com/2nqtue
If what I read is the truth industrial hemp(cannabis sativa) is different than cannabis indica that makes you high. Hemp won't make you high, grows fast and makes food, lubricating and cooking oil, fertilizer, clothing. etc etc
and we don't need no steeenking petroleum. We especially do not no steeenking foreign petroleum from
arabs who fills the pockets of the whores and thieves in our congress with kickback $$$$$. It was
congress who passed the law prohibiting planting all cannabis.
One of the few patriots in Congress, Dr Ron Paul in 2005 introduced a bill to permit growing industrial hemp in USA. Nothing happened. Why would the enemies of freedom in Congress want to let me grow hemp?
I ain't gonna give them no kickback.
The fault lies with idiot voters who return the same thieves to office time after time.

Anonymous said...

hey jim

how about an article on the different levels of merc employment, and what would be the going rate of compensation after a collapse?

Suburban Survivalist said...

When the cheap energy runs out, it'll be so cold in the winter you'll see democrats with their hands in their own pockets.

We don't have the nuclear capacity needed to support our civilization, and won't. Solar and wind cannot do it. Biofuel can't do it.

Locus of control. Knowing what you can/cannot change matters. None of us can change the direction civilization is heading. We *can* get ready for what's likely (have to throw in a weak caveat) coming.

Woodgas for the International Harvester C tractor it is.

Anonymous said...

http://kliv.com/Sunnyvale-startup-unveiling-revolutionary-power-so/6426405


Sunnyvale startup unveiling revolutionary power source tomorrow


SUNNYVALE -- A Sunnyvale-based startup says its developed a revolutionary new energy source called the "Bloom Box."

Bloom Boxes are about the size of a refrigerator, and are capable of creating emissions-free energy using fuel cells.

This represents a major breakthrough for fuel cell technology, which could one day replace traditional energy sources.

Bloom Boxes cost $700,000 each, and are being tested out by Google, eBay and FedEx.

eBay says its Bloom Boxes have saved the company about $100,000 in energy costs so far.

Bloom Energy was virtually unknown in Silicon Valley until this week. It developed the Bloom Box with roughly $400 million in venture capital, from some of the Valley's best-known VC firms.

The company plans to unveil the technology to reporters -- and the public -- at a news conference tomorrow in San Jose.

Anonymous said...

http://www.dailyworldbuzz.com/bloom-energy-the-holy-grail-of-power-source/21423/


The “Holy Grail” of power source, that’s what they call the Bloom Energy. Bloom Energy is said to be the replacement of the electrical power we are using nowadays. Sidhar invented a new kind of fuel cell, which is like a battery that continuously runs. It’s a box that generates electricity through chemical process wherein oxygen and fuel are utilized and converted to a clean source of energy that doesn’t involve combustion. The materials used in the box were available in abundance and cheap, according to Bloom CEO, K.R. Sidhar. As of now each box currently sells from $700 to $800,000 and can power 100 homes. Kleiner-Perkins invested in this new energy source, with about 50 clean tech companies and Bloom Energy already raised $400 million from it. According to a source, a Google datacenter used at least 4 Bloom Boxes during the past year and a half. Google is Bloom’s first customer. Google’s Bloom boxes use about half as much natural gas as a traditional power plant. Soon power grid lines will be replaced by a simple battery box just like cellphones which replaced landlines, technology innovation like this will change life for the better.

Source: Bloom Energy The Holy Grail of Power Source | Daily World Buzz http://www.dailyworldbuzz.com/bloom-energy-the-holy-grail-of-power-source/21423/#ixzz0gQ1BmFRT
Via: Daily World Buzz

Anonymous said...

Natural gas:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/quebec-shale-gas-find-could-redraw-canadas-energy-map/article1478900/


But Questerre believes Quebec's Utica shale could contain more than 20 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas – far higher than gas estimates in Canada's Mackenzie Delta. “We think it's a top 10 shale deposit in North America. The only issue has been to prove that it's commercial,” said Questerre chief executive officer Michael Binnion.

Anonymous said...

Your just a bit negative!Im with the fifty year idea,and in that time some numnut well figure something else out.As to the writing i figure its like free mental health help,everyone is venting and saying whats on their minds(or the things that wont get them taken away!)RW

Anonymous said...

EROEI is a fairly useless statistic. It can be modeled to fit whatever agenda the modeler wants, depending how deep into the energy path you go. If you use energy derived from hydro or windfarms to power the extraction of oil sure that makes the ratio more favorable but you still would pay X number of dollars for the oil because that is driven by demand and what the energy companies can take from us.
As far as renewable sources, ya that would cover some of the electric needs but what about plastics, fertilizers, gasoline, paints and the rest. Oil is used for a hell of alot more than just electic power generation. Where do you think the plastic came from that you are typing on. :)

CaNative said...

The basic understanding is yes, the gov't is going to collapse under its own weight. 3 kids with .22's may be the toppling force.

Long day, too tired to pontificate.

James m Dakin said...

Bloom box isn't bad, as it uses only half the natural gas for the same amount of energy ( a lot of that is lack of transmission loss )and it takes the pressure off the grid. But we are in a gas decline in N. America. Canada is using theirs to melt tar sands. And shale deposits that were discovered in the 70's but have no water around to process don't do any good- as they say, they will always be the fuel of the future.