the huns have arrived

THE HUNS HAVE ARRIVED


Near the end of the Roman empire, the barbarians moved in. The Vandals conquered the African bread basket which in itself would have been the coup de grace, but proving that Fate has a wicked sense of humor the Huns moved in from the east and pushed other tribes into the north to make sure the Romans were smashed for good. Hey, building an empire omelet requires breaking a lot of eggs so when the end comes you have a lot of enemies. Some were out for revenge, some for loot and some had no choice but to attack. It was that or starve. So in a way, the Mongols did conquer Europe in those early years. Just not directly. The Mongol tribe the Huns pushed into eastern Europe and displaced the Goths who had to migrate into the Romans back yard. Fight or starve. Are you kind of getting an idea where this theme is going?

*

Empire ends, always. The American empire is already collapsing but doesn’t know it yet. And our legions of enemies might hate and fear us, but at the center of it all, they simply want us to lose control of the remaining oil so that we will starve rather than them. Fortunately for them we have made ourselves vulnerable from overexpansion and they don’t even have to fight us for the oil. Not until we are much weaker. And then it will most likely be by proxy. As soon as the country starts breaking up, other powers will prop up sides to keep us divided and they will gain the resources. If there are enough left to bother over. Perhaps there aren’t other than in isolated cases. The east Texas/Louisiana/Californian petrocarbons ( being close to the coast is critical ). Nevadan gold, if they have a secure corridor. Although I imagine they only need to secure transportation to a coal area and transport that in to process the gold. It won’t take many air flights to take the metal out ( troop and/or proxy fighters resupply being another matter ). But, I digress. The main thing is we lose control of global oil so that the diminishing supply can be used much more efficiently by others ( in their estimation ).

*

This is when you have to worry about the Huns arriving. Not necessarily the foreigners. They must feel that there are enough resources available to justify using some of the last dwindling oil to invade us and that is up for debate. Our own population is who you must fear. Let’s just take a very small example. Elko, Nevada. Population for the county is around fifty thousand. Which, post petroleum, is at least forty-nine thousand too many for the area to support. My guess is that only a few hundred can survive here. Herding, and to a very small degree farming. Due to the cold ( no, not butt cold like Michigan, but cold enough for at least six months out of the year ) and lack of water not much will successfully grow here consistently except potatoes. Even herding is going to take some adaptation over time to breed in the ability to survive without supplemental feed. It isn’t going to be easy here. That is for those few that want to stay. The rest, the first winter, will leave. There aren’t enough wood sources for even those few hundreds to live unless they have underground and passive solar shelters. Back in the day, the Indians migrated up to Ruby mountain just to have enough wood to burn to stay warm in the winter. And there weren’t too many of them. Here, you almost never smell wood smoke. Firewood comes from hundreds of miles away and is costly. Everyone is burning natural gas or wood pellets and both are subject to scarcity. In the Fall ‘08 there was a huge demand for pellets and the stoves after the oil price had briefly touched $150 a barrel. Prices went through the roof, as there are a limited number of sources for the units and its fuel. In the days pellets were first introduced there were something like under a half dozen sources nationally for the fuel. That might have expanded, but the output has been limited by a niche market demand until 2008. Demand rocketed, but supply inched up. Higher prices even today. But the main thing is, petroleum transportation brings pellets. And of course natural gas is in decline, with shale gas having a limited time to run after it poisons the area from its processing. A temporary halt to decline only. And regional only. Here, one winter of supply shortages and the place empties out. I don’t think a gas shortage would see any energy replacements. An increase in electric demand would overload the system. Pellet demand can’t solve the limited supply issue. Natural gas is the main heat source here and without it the area depopulates. And that doesn’t even touch on the supply of food and other material needing to be shipped in. Let’s face it, 90% of the population here are parasites feeding off the success of the mines. They aren’t needed to keep the mines open. In Power Down, no one will supply the excess eaters.

*

So, suddenly you have over forty thousand people immigrating. Where are they going to go? Remember, this is ONE very sparsely populated area out of thousands that is displaced by the shortage of one resource. And it isn’t even a full blown collapse yet. Now, add in California. Millions of non productive eaters descend on surrounding areas. This is in the opening stages of collapse, when petroleum supplies are first starting to dwindle ( okay, we are already there- so, I’m talking about the first stages of overt denial of supplies to certain areas in a triage event ). This is not the time where you are allowed to shoot refugees since some semblance of order is still being upheld. Crime will skyrocket as the thirty or forty percent unemployed face real starvation ( Food Stamps will indeed cover far more than the current 30%, but will be ratcheted to a fairy tale inflation rate and you will see the inability to buy enough calories ). This is the collapse warm up. And how many tens of millions of people will be displaced? How many areas can’t feed themselves? The few that can will be overrun. Law and order will collapse, but after the refugees have arrived. You can hope that there will be some states that ignore the feds and roadblock refugees ( a repeat of California and the Oklahoma arrivals-how ironic that the same place will disgorge refugees now ), but you had better not bet on it happening.

*

Do you see why I’m counting on my area being depopulated, and not attracting refugees? They will be attracted to any area promising food. None of that here. I’m not claiming the perfect plan. I have a small window of opportunity to transition from stored food to herding, banditry or mercenary work. If it doesn’t happen, it is game over. But your chances in an agriculture area are little better. Millions of Goths will seek you out. They have little choice. Fight or starve. Millions will die on the trek from urban areas, drought areas, perhaps even flood areas, but millions more will make it, and take it. Yes, it is anyone’s guess how the numbers will pan out. Will there be a migration during the collapse, when governments will have no choice but to accept the arrivals? After, where the locals can defend themselves against the threat ( don’t want to kill children or women or old people as they flood in to eat your food? Then you might as well just turn the gun on yourself )? The details are unanswerable. But the general outlook spells refugees to your area. There are no Huns to push the migration, but there is Oil Down. Same difference. Enjoy history in the making.

END

My web site http://www.bisonpress.com/
Buy at my Amazon links to support my Bison ( enter into Amazon from one of my links, but buy anything you want and I'll get credit as long as you don't depart the site until purchases are complete ).