without peak oil

WITHOUT PEAK OIL


I keep forgetting to mention one of our very own minions is a knife maker. You can check it out at http://www.docburgessknives.com/gallery.shtml . That said, let’s meander over to http://www.thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ to once again visit the Druid Dude. Last weeks article saw a speed up in the rate of “slow” decline and this week sees the end of the American Empire, or more appropriately our transition into a Third World Crap Hole. Okay, he didn’t use those words because tree hugging religious guys are not allowed to be so crude and uneducated. But I have no problem with that so I just go full on vulgar when it suits me. Hey, at least I don’t drop the “F” bomb. I would think you asshats would appreciate that. Ungrateful bastards. Sorry, where was I? Okay, this week was a very good article by the Druid Dude, just like last week was. I think he does a lot better when he gets off straight economics and adds in geopolitics. Although his blog is almost a weekly book update. He spells out a bit at a time and keeps adding to it, so perhaps the pure economics were needed. But what do I know? I say the same thing a different way and everyone loves me. I try for original and I’m scum. And, speaking of your opinion of me, the article of bugging out from the city was meant to portray the fallacy of city living just for money. I know there are many reasons to stay, from sick relatives to an upside down mortgage to non custodial children. I was critical of staying just to buy better preps. But at least you all got a bit more upset. Come on, don’t be a kiss ass just because I’m approving comments. Tell me when you’re upset. Tell me I’m an idiot. Let’s not have boring comments.

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You all know how I feel about Peak Oil. I’ll tell you again anyway in case I got one or two new readers last month. Peak Oil is already happening and the end of both dirt cheap oil and its unwavering abundance will spell the end of western civilization. In 1950 we imported more oil to the world than everyone combined pumped. That ocean of oil won us World War II. Not brilliant strategy, not a mythical generation of Americans. Not technology. It looks like the birth of the modern age was due to the spoils of war, importing Nazi tech. Brute energy flow and the sacrificial lamb of Russian fighters barely won us the war. But I won’t get too far off base here. Perhaps another day. Today, we import 70% of our oil and the lose of our domestic production has been made up by turning nearly half of our corn crop into ethanol. Canada turns her natural gas into gasoline by heating up tar sands. Mexico is in cliff diving mode over at Cantrell. Saudi Arabia is drilling more and more outside their major field to keep her numbers up. Peak Oil isn’t in five or ten years, it already started.

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But forget about Peak Oil. Focus instead on imports. As already covered here numerous times, the last three years saw an 8% drop followed by a second year of 8% and last year was an 11% drop in the amount of oil imported. Let’s just say for the sake of argument that we’ve made up the “temporary” decline with that ethanol. Let’s go further out on a limb and say global oil production won’t fall anymore, that our 70 million barrels a day will never decrease. Let’s just concern ourselves with economics. China has already stopped buying our debt. We are starting to buy our own debt. Paying off today at the expense of tomorrow. We’ve bought some time. But for how long? After some point, our military starts to feel the economic contraction. Once our military goes, so goes our oil protection. As goes our ability to buy oil since military and economic superiority are together. The article sighted above spells it out very well. Once our dominance is over our oil imports start to freefall. Even if you don’t buy into American Empire, you have to acknowledge that at least there has been an arrangement where we were the worlds policeman in exchange for oil. I do buy the Empire theory, but even if we buy the official version it still leads to oil imports suffering with our military.

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Pointing out how many millions of solar panels we could have bought with the Iraqi invasion money ignores the point of business as usual for the power brokers that historically always deplete their environment for control and riches. We are locked into the petroleum model. But we import almost all the energy we use. Even if Peak Oil wasn’t a reality, a significant drop of our imported energy spells economic collapse. And it will continue to happen. Denying the oppressor the tools to conquer. Going to a better paying customer. Taking money not being hyperinflated. Your pick, but imports will continue to decline. Less energy equals collapse, it is just that we can’t say when. But it will happen. Plan accordingly, and start by reading the Druid Dude who presents this case much better than I.

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