Friday, March 05, 2010

attack timeline

ATTACK TIMELINE


Your average survivalist/prepper probably has no intention of being evil or in general a nasty person. They probably view themselves as a Libertarian Daniel Boone, both respectful of others property rights and ruggedly independent ( and able to rassle bears ). They chortle at others naivety, making jokes about De Nile being more than a river. But they themselves are innocent of reality if they forget about the unpleasant time period between social orders. Man is a predator. But he is a pack predator. Those outside his pack are prey. Only other humans in his tribe/pack are treated with decency. Outside the pack, you are prey or you are too strong to attack. In times of social upheaval when the pack structure has broken down, old friends might become enemies as old enemies become friends. It is a time to jockey for primacy. If you want to survive you must be willing to let your social mores be suspended until the new pack order is figured out. Or, to put it simply, outside your small survival group, you must be willing to treat everyone as the enemy and be willing to kill them.

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In times of stability, the threat of violence is usually sufficient to keep the peace. Without the threat there is warfare. Warfare is needed at times to either back up the threat or used as a survival tool. The old, “walk softly and carry a big stick”. You must have the ability and the willingness to attack to have peace. This is all rather obvious, but we have had such long periods of domestic peace that most people assume peace is the norm and base all their assumptions on it. For instance, they assume the defense is all they are morally allowed in times of collapse. But you must be willing to go on the offensive if you wish to survive during the die-off. This is part of your defense. You don’t wait for hostile forces to surround your retreat, you seek them out and destroy them first. So how do you tell the good guys from the bad? If they are in your territory, they are bad guys. It is as simple as that. It doesn’t matter if they are decent, church going, upright folks. If they are going to be in direct competition with you in the future for resources, they will eventually be your enemy. If they can’t be assimilated they must be eliminated.

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I can already hear a chorus of dissent and bewilderment. We love everyone! How dare you talk like that when no one has hurt you! You are a terrible monster and deserve to die! No wonder your wife left you! Gee, give me some credit. I didn’t say you had to go riding into their village and slaughter them all. You can do the righteous thing and threaten them first. Join, under our rules, or die. Sure, it tips them off and hinders your battle plans, but you can not only sleep easier at night but you can take the moral high ground. You aren’t a monster, indiscriminately killing everyone. You gave them a choice to take the easy way out. None of this is indecent or illogical. This is the way governments work. Even in the “freest country in the world”, the IRS is giving you a similar choice. You can “voluntarily” pay your taxes or wait for us to send our ninja’s in. But don’t worry, it’s fair since you can go to the governments courts and have a government payroll judge soon to retire on a government pension decide the “fair” course of action if you feel you’ve been wronged.

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Now that we’ve gotten your weak cries of protest out of the way, the question becomes one of timing. Should you attack immediately, stealing resources but facing a well armed foe or wait to attack and forego the treasure but also the full armaments that were available? Are probing attacks best, whittling down resistance? Is there that much that is so valuable that you must risk your own lives and use your ammunition? For instance, a tanker of gasoline might be nice to have but it isn’t critical. A natural gas well might be another matter as it will last a lot longer. Why would anyone want to attack a gun store or National Guard armory? Too tasty of a target for others. Besides, most of the crap you might get from the NG ( if it isn’t already over in Iraq ) is either worthless or will be once it breaks down and runs out of the limited supply of ammo. Is it better to fight for the rail cars full of grain, or direct your forces to farmland? Obviously the land is better in the long term. But what if you didn’t have enough manpower to hold it? These are all questions you should think about beforehand. Here in the Great Basin, there isn’t as much advantage in holding positions as there is in staying mobile. You would be better served by raiding than by sieges. In general. You still need to steal stored foods. You might need building material for winter survival. A town might become a base of operations for your enemies.

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No one plan will fit all areas. You’ll have to stay flexible. But the primary thing is that you must start to think offensively. Otherwise, you are eventually under attack with no retreat. And, remember, your allies or friends today will eventually turn on you as supplies dry up in a drought or famine. Best to control rather than befriend.

END

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13 comments:

Mahtomedi said...

An 'offensive'?? With WWI surplus bolt-action rifles?? You are a brave soul Jim.

Anonymous said...

Thats more like it,i liked the ninja part the best.Best to know your neighbors,let them know you would shoot to protect friends.(or to be wary of you because your nuts!)
I just read a piece in the local paper,person was telling folks how they really arent free,government can take your property,vehicle even kids through various agencys or laws,fun morning coffee reading.RW

Anonymous said...

No wonder your wives all left you

PioneerPreppy said...

Dude I enjoy your blog and agree with you on many issues but in this post I must confess complete disagreement.

You have some good advice and insights along with reviews but encouraging raiding and first strike type of operations is a bit overboard.

It is completely possible to find cheap land in areas that can support a person without having to prey on others, maybe you should think about relocating if after a collapse living where you are will require raiding.

Now if a group has raided or attacked your neighbors then by all means do what must be done but taking from others is not the answer.

Finding a place where you can be self self-sufficient is the answer IMO.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else notice how bitter Jim is becoming?

CaNative said...

Hell yeah it's going on the offensive. Your suburbanites need to learn this. I lived in suburbia, the crime rate was astounding even in early 2007. Some asshole neighbors moved in. They were terrorizing people all over the area, but me most of all because I was right next door. I had to find the right gov't goon ("crime prevention officer") to clean 'em up and he did too, better than the Orkin Man, but until then it was a constant battle. Calling the cops nightly, often more than once.

I DID NOT UNDERSTAND WHY I COULD NOT JUST GO OVER AND SHOOT 'EM, AND USE ANY MONEY ETC THEY HAD TO HOLD A NEIGHBORHOOD PARTY.

My biggest emotional turmoil was, Dammit, if I shoot 'em and get rid of the problem, the cops will be after ME. Dammit!

I tried to get people on the street coordinated in calling the cops on 'em so the cops would get complaints from more than one person and do something, they all were cowards, scared of the baddies but more scared to "get involved".

I wore pepper spray at all times, kept a bigger canister on a wall mount next to my computer desk where I was most of the time. Plan: If they attack, gas the closest one or two and any others should run, start kicking adam's apples and snapping elbows and doing the most damage unto death if possible, to the ones I have down.

The reason I went with pepper spray was, not only much cheaper than a gun, but in close quarters along with good stout boots and a few applied arm-bars etc I'm more likely to kill 'em using that.

I love guns, LOVE 'em. But in close quarters ammonia, CS, and good old pepper are more likely to stop a baddie. I mean real close quarters. 10-30 feet, it's a pistol, 30 and out, a rifle is your friend. A dirty secret is that in the woods, bear spray is more effective than the large bore pistols people favor for bear defense. It's also cheaper! Save your bigbore bang-bangs for the end times ;-)

But the original point is, I learned something: In the end times, the cops will be too busy. Identify your local baddies and have a plan(s) prepared to turn 'em off early in the game. And yes, a person is either your tribe or target practice. There is no middle ground.

tjbbpgobIII said...

Jim, we don't "rassle bears", we rassle a bar.

Mfskinner said...

Zombies are the ones not in your own camp. It is best to relieve the zombie of any extra baggage that you can use to sustain yourself.

If there are a lot of them then quick brutal pruning would be the choice for me. When the numbers fall a mopping operation would resolve the problem.

Most folks like to try the nice approach first and see if they can resolve it peacefully. It would be a mistake because in a true SHTF situation nice is quick kill. Mean is bleeding them slowly.

After all survival means you wake up the next day and they do not.

Suburban Survivalist said...

Throwing down the bullshit flag on this post.

First, and least important, is this;

Your average survivalist/prepper[s]... are innocent of reality if they forget about the unpleasant time period between social orders.

Really? Then why are the “yuppie survivalists” spending big bucks on all the latest weapons, night vision, instruction detection, preparing remote retreats ala Rawlsean theory, etc.? Come on, I would venture that most survivalist/prepper types are painfully aware of what is to come – we are. Who hasn’t read One Second After or Lights Out?

It’s the non-preppers that will be caught clueless.

This is more serious;

So how do you tell the good guys from the bad? If they are in your territory, they are bad guys.

The message I’m getting from the entire context of the post, and please correct me if I’m way off base here, is to take out anyone in your territory, w/o warning. Basically, shoot first and don’t worry about questions. I don’t buy that. Someone could be passing through, or with no ill intentions. Refugees. Not even aware it’s your property, depending on how much territory is in question. Or their friends may know where they were/hear what happen and retaliate in overwhelming force. Many different scenarios that don’t require what you suggest.

If a group in your territory/property seems to be on the prowl/offense, that’s a different story – but not the one in this message.

Finally, the strategy for stealing/looting. This, unlike the vast majority of solid suggestions and advice I’ve been reading here over the past few weeks, is absolutely horrible advice that is apt to get those who listen killed, aside from whoever they might attack at some point in the future.

In my view, the end goal behind seriously prepping is to have a place and/or resources so that you won’t have to resort to being one of the bad guys. Have ample arms and partners ahead of time, or from a group shortly after TSHTF, to have security. That’s the sort of Survivalism I subscribe to.

Staying Alive said...

You don't let attackers or possible attackers get close to your home. You don't hang out and defend your home. You get way from your home to do your fighting. First strike might save a lot of lives, including your children's. The best defense is a good offense.

Michael

James m Dakin said...

There won't be an area where they leave you alone. I've covered that before. As power devolves, the power base shrinks and the area under one rulers control shrinks. In a centralized nation like ours, you can escape in a remote area. In a region such as Dark Ages Europe where there are a lot of tiny countries, where could you hide? When the area under their control can be covered by horse in a day, and they have many horses, how do you hide? And, please, reread the article. I said attack AFTER a warning. I'm just trying to point out the need for offensive tactics, not condoning it necessarily.

Mockum said...

James, looks like your new minions don't get it. It's like they're afraid of doom rather than eagerly waiting for it. So so sad.

steve Bridges said...

I spent 12 years enlisted and commissioned in the army and since leaving worked another ten in various capacities in the various militia groups. Mahtomedi made a disparaging comment about making a offensive with a WW1 surplus bolt rifle. using sniper tactics such a rifle and rifleman is absolutely deadly. Further there are no dangerous weapons just dangerous men. there are a number of folks out there who can and will kill with a rifle, a baseball bat, a broken bottle or a brick as well as a rifle shotgun or other firearm. Ive known and worked with them, Those folks are the ones you want on your side in TEOTWAWKI they are very dangerous to their enemies.

In a somali /lebanon/ afghanistan style total breakdown the warlords or barons will proliferate everywhere and they will be the local government.

There will only two ways to live, 1. as a farmer or herdsman and 2. off farmers or herdsmen as a warlord or retainer of a warlord baron.