Before we start today, I feel I must take a moment to run a counterargument past you. Since you foolishly keep coming back to read my drivel I can get away with this kind of thing. I just got done singing the praises of Creekmore so now it is time to reverse direction and disagree with an assessment of his. Okay, I usually only write about disagreeing with everyone else’s opinion, but I felt that since I might be giving you the impression that I don’t like Rawles it was time to clear that up and at the same time disagree with someone’s opinion. Which is what I do best. Remember, I’m striving to be the gadfly of the survivalist movement. The crap I do for fame and fortune. I disagree with what most of what is written over at http://www.survivalblog.com/. It is Yuppie Survivalism personified. I believe that Rawles means no harm, that he is following his convictions, that he is offering the best advice he can, the advice that has the best chance of getting you through the Apocalypse. I don’t agree his advice is correct in as far as we don’t have the prep time he requires unless you are rich. But I don’t believe he is a get rich survivalist guru. He means well. I hope that is clear enough. The reason I bring all this up is Creekmore’s dislike of “Patriots”. He plainly states that it is only his opinion, that his review is subjective. We all like and dislike different things. You love semi-auto carbines while I love them as a toy and hate them as a survival tool. You love that crap fiction Earth Abides and I proclaim it offal. I’m not saying Creekmore is wrong for hating Patriots as much as I’m saying we have different opinions on it. I thought it was a pretty decent novel, at least up until page 300. After that it took a different track and I didn’t care for it. I’ve read most survival fiction and Patriots is far better than most of the 80’s pulp prepper fiction. It beats most of the zombie crap. It is not poorly written in my opinion. I think it is a dislike of the message more than the style most people have. I just wanted to throw all that out here, to give the devil his due.
Sometimes the laser focus of economists irritates the crap out of me. I know, I know, you are frankly astounded that I would be irritated about anything, being such a mellow fellow and all. Nevertheless, at times I find myself screaming at the monitor, “It’s more than just money, it’s about the energy!”. Of course, no one listens to me and they ignore me and drag out more charts from dead Russians as proof that the economy moves in forty year cycles and hence while we are on the third leg of the fifth cycle shadowing the retirement of the third generation we will see a second recovery of a third quarter rally ( or some such jolly rot ). Once you introduce the concept of energy into economics, the entire model breaks down, from generation cycles to capitalism to communism to Austrian to Keynesian. If you look at colonialism as the first western energy surplus and oil as the second, anything economic in that period is unique and hence not applicable to the future. So, while one argument about the value of gold claims that a nice business suit five hundred years ago could be purchased for the same amount of gold as it can today ( arguing for the stable value of gold ), it is on one level flawed. Not that gold doesn’t hold its value, it does. That is the whole reason to own gold, as a long term storehouse of wealth. Not as an investment so much as a guaranteed protector of your earnings. Paper currency ultimately is only good for tinder. No paper currency has ever held its value for too long. The flaw is that the time measured only covers the time we must discount as a historic norm.
From the colonialism of Spanish America we have seen a period of gold deflation. Gold was found in such abundance that it actually crippled the Spanish economy ( well, gold and silver to be fair ) through an explosion in the money supply. This was followed by the colonization of North America. The New World was an unexploited continent ( in terms of an economy much above hunter/gatherer- the natives pretty much lived a sustainable life ) which gave up vast treasures. Then, coal and oil came along. We have had five hundreds years of abundance in the West. When that ends, gold will no longer be artificially constrained. I contend that gold is actually much more valuable than currently measured against paper currency, and that gold is far more valuable than the last half a millennium might indicate. Of course, at this time I only claim that this is my newest pet theory and is backed by little more than casual research. Use it as investment advice at your own risk.
If you read the excellent article http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay10/go-long-deep-broke05-10.html ( being an exception to my irritation at pure economic lenses to forecast the future ) you might agree that the bankers have pretty much manipulated the entire global economy and there is nothing left to finagle except wild gambles ( $600 trillion in derivatives, anyone? ). The question this article got me asking was, how much has gold been manipulated? How far and for how long has it been held down? On top of a general trend in gold deflation over five hundred years, we also have a recent clamp by the central banks. How much is gold, an extremely rare metal all the more so with so many people on the planet, really worth? My best guess is, far more than $1200 an ounce. There is absolutely no way that gold wouldn’t be reaching the stratosphere right now in a free economy, with all the life altering bad economic news crowding out any other events for the last several years ( although in our corporate whore media, news stories such as Korean ship sinking and oil spills are given more importance than is warranted just to cover up the bad economic news ). It is being manipulated right along with the stock market. Any precious metal should, with or without hyperinflation, shoot up in value ( not just price but actual buying power- especially once oil stops subsidizing low prices ) as soon as the money master cease to control it. And then shoot up again after the end of the Oil Age.
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