security blankets

SECURITY BLANKETS


What follows in the middle of this article was my previous attempt to visualize how the future economy will be both similar and different from Europe after the end of the Roman Empire. I wrote it a week or two ago but didn’t publish it as I was unhappy with my thought process. It didn’t “mesh”. Something was wrong with it. I put it on the back burner of my sub-consciousness until the answer presented itself. Since long hot showers are no longer possible, now my best Eureka moments are while riding my bicycle when cold enough to increase circulation more ( eight months out of the year at least in the morning ). My whole thinking on firearms displacing the feudal structure was wrong. Read the original article, then we can pick up on this train of thought.

FOR QUEEN AND COUNTRY

Last weeks Druid Dude Report (http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/ ) was as good as usual. One of my favorite writers even if he is a hopeless Slow Decliner. I can appreciate authors of different persuasions such as the extreme commie Kunstler (http://kunstler.com/blog/ ) who not only would kiss the tan off Obammies ass but has committed the unpardonable sin of being a damn Yankee. Yet he is so funny with such a caustic wit that one simply must love him. Anyway, our favorite Druid Dude pointed out the reasoning behind the economic structure of medieval Europe which was a response in part to the collapse of the Roman currency debacle ( primarily it was due to a lack of surplus energy that the Romans had- Europe inherited a mess of overpopulation, hyperinflation, soil degradation, etc. and the only way to compensate for a lack of trade was decentralization and land wealth ). As went dark ages Europe so will go Post Oil Age America.

*

To visualize our near future, you can’t look at resource rich colonial or pre-Depression America or post-Enlightenment Europe as parasite on colonies. Those times were ones of riches and wealth due to mining the wealth of vast stretches of land. As DD pointed out, the average peasant usually never saw a coin, certainly never on a daily basis. Precious metals were scarce and were a small part of the economy ( one wonders how much gold and silver was carried out of Roman Europe in the last days in a desperate last attempt to buy food, or later carried out as plunder, for such a shortage to remain that there couldn’t be a viable medium of exchange ). Land was the basis of all wealth and obligations based on that land formed the economy. Now, land has always formed the basis of wealth, but DD explains these things much better than me as far as the three tiers of the economy and the medieval devolution to using just the basic one. The basics are that not only did trade collapse causing decentralization, its lack made the economy oversimplified. In the future, we will once again reach that level. Yet it would be silly to think we will revisit Maid Marian and the Merry Men despite the favorite fantasy world of SM Sterling. There most certainly won’t be kings and queens and armored knights and what not. So how will our feudal future look?

*

I can’t see us ever devolving past a blackpowder and flintlock existence on a large basis. It might not even sink below breech loading blackpowder and primer ( although I believe that would be contingent on mercury availability- remember, regardless of knowledge, without the support infrastructure nothing above a cottage industry level will be made and mercury based primers are very cottage industry ). We certainly have enough smelted metal aboveground to be able to “mine” ores for many lifetimes if extreme stupidity isn’t involved. I think the bottleneck will be nitrates since only so much fertilizer can be taken from food production. The existence of firearms negates the feudal structure because massed fire from common soldiers trumps single combat and the use of cannon necessitates mobility rather than fortifications which requires armies of masses of conscripts, and on and on. In other words, chemical energy weapons do not allow what we think of traditional feudal structures. But that doesn’t mean you won’t be living in a dictatorship. It just means there won’t be a liege lord that pledges his life to the king.

*

The basic common denominator is that there will be no to little trade and that almost no one will travel. Food production will be 90+% of the economy. Since precious metals will be rare, yet the only acceptable currency after embedded memories of horrid paper currency inflation will make a multigenerational mark, there will be few merchants and they will only deal in low weight high value items for the rich. Unfortunately, we will have a severe coffee shortage ( which seems like motive enough to me to claw your way up to the top ). I don’t see private land ownership disappearing, but certainly the vast majority of farmers will be sharecroppers. The owners of that land will in turn both pay in kind taxes but also furnish their soldiers in certain circumstances. So, yes, in much we will have a return to feudal structures. Medieval Europe came about naturally in response to shortages of one kind or another. My point is, even though I find it hard to visualize the details, we won’t exactly duplicate the whole kings and serfs type of thing because of firearms. There has to be fixed agriculture for survival and weapons production, but enough mobility to be militarily effective, but with no medium of exchange. The economics will be similar but the culture has to be different with the more widespread use of weapons. Crap, no wonder few try to flesh all that out. I’ll need to work on this a bit more. Feel free to help with suggestions.

END ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Extreme localization will still happen. The shrinking size of political units will still take place, because of similar conditions with the fall of Rome. Our soil will be depleted, our money totally debased, our far flung infrastructure unsustainable. The scarcity of precious metal will mean the end of almost all trade ( in effect, this historic round of paper currency was sustainable for this long due to it being backed by oil ). We will contract. The depleted soil means no surplus fodder for cavalry, no surplus food for larger armies, nor surplus nitrates for gunpowder production ( I’m not saying it won’t happen, just that it will be at the expense of the general population ). All that is obvious. Where my thinking grew cloudy was when I believed feudal structures were defeated by gunpowder. Middle ages knights were made obsolete by gunpowder ( with a head start from crossbows, but that was possible when trade resumed enough to allow for mercenary armies to form with the latest military hardware ), but the nation state was formed. The only real difference was an expansion of trade allowing growth in government.

*

Firearms certainly help the individual oppose tyranny. But they don’t help him defeat it. Gunpowder and metal production can easily be controlled by the state, thus controlling the used of guns themselves. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a dyed in the wool anarchist and always will be. But recognizing the preferred way of organizing our lives is not the same as recognizing the realities that make it impossible. Guns can be controlled by the State. Guns do not make you free. The government decides how free you will be, with or without guns. Put aside your militia porn fantasies for a moment and ask yourself this. Can you produce your own smokeless powder and primers? I realize my article presumes a blackpowder arms future, but follow me a second as I make my case using three countries as examples in the modern world. Switzerland, America and Russia. Compared to Switzerland, almost all of the US is a totalitarian gun control nightmare. Pistols are highly taxed, but not discouraged in America. This allows the illusion of self protection and allows high crime ( supporting the pretext for our Police State ). Battle rifles are more controlled. This allows little chance for rebellion and the citizens are certainly not free ( the financially well off can afford battle weapons [ short range carbines such as the SKS are not effective against an industrialized army and thus the only cheap rifle is nearly worthless ] but they are the least likely to use them since they can lose their wealth ). Switzerland makes it simple to rebel effectively with all its young males armed from home. Yet there is little fear from the authorities as there is little central control or abuse. It is far more equal and free than the US. Russia got early firearms and effectively used them against the mostly eastern invaders. In many ways, they paralleled our western expansion ( but going east ). Firearms made it possible to defeat and expand. Yet, Russians never became free. The State decides how much freedom to allow. And that usually, at least over time, follows how much freedom is allowed by external/economic/energy forces. Individual settlers helped defeat the American natives, and did so with military weapons available on the open market. Russian settlers defeated the lower tech invaders with firearms but were more collective in their defense.

*

Rebellions can be waged successfully, with or without firearms. The State doesn’t always win. But it usually prevails. Rebelling veterans from the Revolution were crushed by federal forces here. The Indians were crushed using biological and famine weapons ( more so than with guns ). The collective can easily defeat guns. Guns don’t mean a magic shield against the government. And guns don’t mean the end of tyranny. Or tyrannical rule. Just look at modern Africa. Tomorrows feudal society will be armed with firearms. The future won’t mirror the past perfectly because of that. But it should still be close.

END
The Official Bison Web Site http://www.bisonpress.com/
*
Please support Bison by buying through the Amazon links in each article. You can purchase anything, not just the linked item. Enter Amazon through my item link and then go to whatever other item you desire. As long as you don’t leave Amazon until after the order is placed, I get credit for your purchase. Thank you.