CHINESE SUN
Today’s segment of “this doesn’t have a damn thing to do with the article and why can’t you just shut up and get to the point and then you can be like everyone else and publish one paragraph of original material, three links and a video download, none of which is offensive or controversial nor wakes up anyone’s slumbering grey matter” ( say that three times fast ) is about BP and bankruptcy. One article says they have a month before declaring bankruptcy, another says the British government can’t let it go under because it is the largest pension fund provider, another says the
corporation
is segregated into separate companies and only a sacrificial lamb will be slaughtered. My vote is that the US government will go after the company so as to look official and dutiful. Then, the Brits will bail them out from all the lawsuit and other blow out costs to appease their voters. Then, the Brits will go bankrupt and need a bail out from the
IMF
. Which will be covered by US Dollar
inflation
( print up a few more trillion since there aren’t enough taxpayers left ). So, in effect, the consumer, through higher inflation, will bail out BP. Of course, the cost of the bail out will be ten times what BP pays leaving plenty of graft for the big bankers.
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I want to make clear up front this article doesn’t invalidate my strongly held conviction that we will see a massive die-off due to the plunging down slope of
Hubbert
’s bell curve. Exponential decline, the continued decline at the same percentage rate, is an upside down hockey stick.
Al Gore
might be a fat greasy sleazy pig of a man but at least he introduced the hockey stick graph into the public school educated masses consciousness. This article rather fits into the time period of five years ago to, whatever, perhaps, maybe, five years from now. I hope it is a whole five years from now. The period before the die-offs start. This will be an interesting time, if for no other reason than it will be confused as the collapse itself, luring folks into a false sense of security.
China
does a lot of things right. Their basic premise is flawed, if they think they can minimize the effects of
Peak Oil
on themselves. But at least they are doing something other than “
business as usual
” ( widening the straw to suck up the finite resources quicker ). And who knows, it just might work. Turn your own workers into a middle class to sustain your own economy, taking over that role from the US, who will promptly self destruct from its own economic stupidity. In the meantime, protect and conquer with a military that is basically self supporting through its ties with corporations. In contrast to the US model which has been to keep the military the lifeline of the economy ever since the Great Depression ended ( this worked so well for the Soviets ).
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What China is doing correct is to bring about the middle class on a very low level of energy ( at least compared to the US ). Three times the population uses one third the oil, and that is with a manufacturing economy. You might think the coal use would alter the figures, but my guess is that since we a lot of coal ourselves ( to run the electrical grid, which in essence runs our economy the way oil and
Detroit
used to long ago ) they can weather Peak Oil much better than we can, and they are doing it with diplomacy and bribes rather than the invasion and occupation that we do to get energy. And, no, I’m not disparaging our troops in Iraq or
Afghanistan
. They are doing a fine job with the limited tools our country allowed itself after painting itself in a corner. If we hadn’t occupied the middle east we wouldn’t last the few extra years that we will. It just buys us time. Like eating the feed corn. Not the greatest solution, but Better Than Nothing.
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The first good example, besides the obvious manual labor that is ambiguous in that country, is the rooftop
solar water heaters
nearly every home has. Here, you either pay huge bucks to a small, cottage industry outfit to sell you a water heater or you make it yourself. If you are poor you can jerry rig it, but few know how, as simple as it is. Since most of us have little money, no more credit, and no labor skills as part of our general education ( relax,
Bob The Builder
, I’m speaking of the general population ), no one has solar hot water heaters. In China, almost every peasant can afford the mass produced affordable, simple heaters. And remember, three times our population. The second example is their popular work van. About five grand, and half the size of the old
VW Bus
. With really good gas mileage. Everyone uses them. Because the lawyers haven’t made another ten grand worth of expenses necessary ( thanks a butt load, you commie cunt
Ralph Nadar 
). These are just two examples of how a country run by engineers rather than lawyers can keep things affordable, energy efficient and outside the embrace of cheap/affordable oil. We won’t emulate it, because we are stuck in our old economic model. And there are far too many powerful people living quite well off of that arrangement for it to end. Even if the alarm was suddenly heeded, by then there will be no money, no credit, no energy and no resources or training to switch. I think we actually already passed that point. Enjoy your collapse, bitches.
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12 comments:
You can stop giving up on life now, we have enough coal to avoid a sudden collapse even if all oil imports stopped.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey;
A demonstrated reserve base estimated at nearly 475 billion short tons suggests that the United States has enough coal to meet projected energy needs for almost 200 years, based on current consumption rates.
http://energy.usgs.gov/factsheets/coalavailability/coal.html
______________________________
Energy collapse seems unlikely, perhaps you should focus on plague and civil unrest like me. Trust me on this one, I'm obviously more educated than you.
Your one of the few writers to end posts by occasionally calling your readers bitches, and it always come's off well. In real life, clearly I would punch you in the hair for saying such a thing.
The Chinese still have a major problem called exponential growth and the need for food production that will not be able to be managed effectively. Even a a very slight population growth is quite scary when ChinaIndia have what 2.3 Billion people? At least they like bike's in china, how about making Bike friendly towns again, where we drive to commuter lots then bike around from there. People are addictive to the status quo, er not the junk land-trailer status quo though of some small minority of folks who prop up their home with superpails :)
As usual, you nailed it.
Mountain Rifleman
A really good post. MSNBC should offer you a job.
Not one mention of your damn hair, I'm so proud of you.
U.S .gov can't go after B.P that hard, Brits own 40% and the U.S owns 39%
The Chinese need to keep up %8 yearly growth in their economy to keep their current system a go. With riots, strikes, and unbreathable air in China and a shrinking market for their stuff outside of China I doubt they can do that for much longer. But, as things fall apart, most of the Chinese can go back to their homes in the country with their solar water heaters, pig poop powered woks, and gardens and do alright.
You don't need a "big die-off" to have a big change in population numbers. In the US the death rate will go up a bit, the birth and immigration rates will go down a bit and after a few years of this we'll have quite a few fewer people in the US.
I think we're going see more stuff like killings in Rwanda, The Sudan, and Kyrgyzstan and that these signal the start of a die-off in the third world.
Dude,
I read your blog frequently and most of the time I laugh out loud. Very funny for the most part.
I appreciate your self-proclaimed position as peak oil super prophet, but this is the most inane post I think you've written.
So here we go...a self-proclaimed, zero government, anarchist gives a "shout out" to the TOTAL government ChiComs!?!
Here's the problem you're running into: a theory (peak oil) that proves everything...proves NOTHING!
The Chinese middle class? You mean the ones who live under oppressive government rule, with central planning and a median annual income of $9,000?
The Chinese middle class, although on the rise, only constitutes 13ish% of their population. Oh and they're not driving the dufus mini-vans or using solar water heaters because they read Mother Earth News or belong to the Michigan Millitia. They use that garbage, becuase it is the only alternative.
Indeed Our government is corrupt, they spend too much, regulate too much, tax too much and screw up too much. Having said that...the ChiComs are NO better in any way. Yes, they use less oil with a larger population. That is largely because "the poor" in America generally still have a cell phone, car (even if it's a POS), refrigerator, rent to own computer, etc. In China the poor live in mud huts or the Chinese equivalent...and again not by choice.
Might be time to take a quick vacation and get some perspective?
Based on what BP is going through, and they deserve it, I’m willing to bet that after the meeting osama those oil CEO’s went to Hooters for a beer and discussed shutting down and capping ALL their oil wells in the water so not to risk the same fate as BP. Why risk loosing a cushy job like they have. Plus osama’s handlers will have so many regulations created in the next week or two that it will not be profitable to operate their wells in the water.
Here comes $6.00 - $10.00 a gallon gas and a lot of whizzed off North Americans.
Oh, I heartily disagree. I've written much more inane posts!
To Liberal Survivalist...
If Obama gets his way with taxing everything carbon, it may become too expensive to use coal. In other words a legislative energy shortage.
One thing though I don't like about coal is the mercury emissions when it is burned. Seems that mercury has contaminated our waterways and makes fish very risky to eat. Mercury is a heavy metal that will lead you to Alzheimers and generally will stay in your system and could build-up to toxic levels.
See what turning off the TV does. You can be as wise as Jim.
Your right Jim, the repurcusions of the oil spill have not yet played out yet.
We could see some interesting times as the Chinese say.
There really ar enough middle class people in China to amount a large conuntry. Last year 23 million cars were sold there. Our peak number of cars around 17 million. Now down to around 13 million. India is starting work on an interstate highway system modeled after ours. They will need alot of oil.....
People, regarding coal. The good stuff, high BTU stuff, is pretty much gone. We now have to use heavy machinery to get to the low grade stuff. Just like with our ore mining. Coal will NOT save us, only buy a little time, and certainly not 200 years.
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