I'm deflating

I’M DEFLATING


Yesterday I mentioned the book “The Big Short”( The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine ). As I gushed with barely controlled enthusiasm over the chronicling of the biggest idiocy to hit the globe since the invention of the printing press and paper money ( Paper Money ), I forgot the one thing that most titillated me. The few people that saw the implosion coming ( or, those that made money off the crash, anyway ) eerily shadow those of us trying to wake up the sheep to the impending oil bubble collapse. We clearly see the danger, wonder why no one is paying attention, make it our evangelical mission ( The Great Commission: Evangelicals and the History of World Missions ) to share our fears, are rebuffed quite rudely, try to make a buck off the trend, then sit alone in a dark corner clutching our weapon of choice and whimper in fear that our forecasting victory will also seal our own fate. These investors made millions, then after all those years worrying that they had misread the data as the trend far outlasted common sense, had to contend with the worry that their riches would go up in smoke as the market totally crashed and burned. The author did a great job capturing the personalities involved. And I really related. As I’ve said before, I hope against hope that I am wrong about the coming Post-Oil Collapse. Guessing that by my retirement age I won’t have a retirement, nor the ability to pay for medical care ( Adventure Medical Kits Day Tripper First Aid Kit ), I think it is safe to say that at most I’ll live another twenty-five years. I don’t worry overly much about my quality of life as I’ll be riding my bike and eating relatively healthy food even then. If nothing happens, I’ll be able to enjoy two decades of post ex-wife financial freedom. Not the best deal, as one third my life was wasted supporting the demon. One sixteenth in fruitless treadmill existence forced on me by an unholy alliance of the Unions and government mandating that I sit and learn nothing instead of entering the workforce for an actual learning experience and emancipation ( “teenagers” are a modern invention and good riddance to them soon. Puberty should see adulthood, motherhood and the start of a career. Reduced lifespans should reinforce that reacceptance ). But I don’t think I’m wrong and likely will never live to see my fiftieth birthday as I am forced to fight off cannibal masses ( Perhaps it will be my fifty-fifth, whatever. It shouldn’t be too much longer ).

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http://americanenergycrisis.blogspot.com/2010/09/deflation-and-peak-oil-imports.html

is the latest from our import decline buddy. I know I’ve been pretty flippant before with forecasting hyperinflation. Perhaps it is impossible as the deflation crowd thinks. The writers are certainly are much more knowledgeable than I am in economics. Perhaps I was just thinking that inflation ( The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence ) was the only possible outcome to pay off the legions of seniors ( I can’t believe how huge the just introduced drug welfare program has become ). Perhaps since inflation has been around all my life I just assume it will get worse and continue. Personally I could give two craps if we inflate or deflate. I don’t have enough wealth saved up for it to matter, and just being out of debt brings you to a much better place regardless of which one we see ( I don’t believe that wage inflation will happen as it did in the 70’s, so I don’t think debt is as good a strategy as it used to be ). Either way, the working stiff is going to be stiffed. But it is still fun to ponder, argue about, pretend to get worked up and challenge your dissenters to a duel over it. The inflation/deflation debate is just like the time sink arguments of 9mm versus 45 ( 9mm is a limp wrist pansy round barely above souped up rimfire status- but what do I know? ), or the Enfield versus the Mauser ( they both excel equally in their chosen design, one for accuracy and the other performing in battlefield conditions )( ATI Mauser 98 Scope Mount ). Or, for that matter, perhaps over the debate between the attractiveness of muffintops ( plump in all the right places with the unfortunate addition of that belly/thigh fat ) versus fit and skinny ( no fat parts, but no plump ones either ). If you have a place to live rent/mortgage free, food storage, the means for self defense and you put the excess in to precious metals you are pretty well insulated no matter what. Silver ( 1 oz (.999) Fine Silver Bar - Eagle Design ) performs well in both, as it is real money and outside the control of the central bank.

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I like the reasoning of one commenter ( in the above cited article ) pointing out we will see both inflation in food and fuel prices and deflation in wages and homes. Another reminded us that with Peak Oil, the economic reasoning of the past will be altered. Didn’t we already see this somewhat, as stagflation ( The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social Rigidities ) in the 70’s? High unemployment makes a mockery of the attempt to survive regardless of what the economy is doing. As I’ve pointed out before, even if the economy doesn’t crash, your unemployment will see to it that you can’t prepare and are thus in the same position as if it did. Which is why you need to prep now. Every payday is a gift from heaven, as the personal unemployment collapse could be anytime. Anyone can store wheat, buy a surplus firearm ( Guns & Ammo Surplus Firearms Magazine (2010) ), get a rent free place to live and do it on a minimum wage/retirement income level. It only takes a will and the discipline to lower your luxury items for a short period of time. I think the problem we are all facing is that for the last two years the bad economic news has been so unendingly bad that we’ve tuned it out. We aren’t paying attention anymore, to avoid sensory overload. And we’ve become so accustomed to it that it is background noise rather than a warning. I might be full of crap about Peak Oil or hyperinflation, but we all know something really bad is in the works economically. Act accordingly.
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