Saturday, October 02, 2010

guest article

GUEST ARTICLE


Be Fruitful and Multiply?

Back when that was first said the population of good old mother earth was around a million people. Probably less. So increasing the tribe was a good idea.

Now, somewhere between 2011 and 2015 the world population will reach 7 billion people!!

Don't you think we've done enough multiplying? The good news is growth has slowed! We haven't shown anymore restraint in our breeding habits. No, the reason for the slowdown is we are starting to die off more quickly.Guess from what?? Go on, Pleeeeease ! the rates of starvation and starvation related disease are increasing!

Heard of Peak Oil? I think The Bison may have mentioned it once or twice. Well, I'm talking about peak people! Exponential growth peaked in (trumpets sound) 1987! In 1987 81.1 million people were added to the world. A net increase, births - deaths = net increase. Since then it has been decreasing by about 2.1 million per year.

This statement deserves a line all by itself:

We Have Passed Our Sustainability!

We will reach zero population growth somewhere between 2020 and 2029. the population at that time will be around 6.64 to 6.90 billion.Starvation, disease, lack of water will kill enough people to prevent any additional increase.

The smart people who rule the world know this is happening. they don't talk about because it is bad for business. Big Surprise There!

When the declaration of Independence was signed there was less than 1 billion people. Now we have 6 billion plus! Now assuming peak oil is also true which will add to the water shortages,food and fish production and other shortages the natural die off will exceed current projections.

This is not a theory. The numbers show we have been collapsing for 23 years.Sending your dollar a day to some little kid in Africa may do wonders for your guilt over being an affluent American but you are not saving shit.

When resource refugees move to where they can still get supplies you have overcrowding. This adds to the shortages and also fosters the increased risk for violence. Then of course, at some point wars,small and large will be fought over available water supplies and stockpiles of not just food, but anything deemed valuable.

The top 20% of (rich) people use 76.6 of all available resources. that does not make them popular with the other 80%..

There are 17 oceanic fisheries being over fished. 9 are in a state of collapse.

This is not a science fiction movie people. This is real. Want a good reason to stockpile, add this one to your list.

Hungry people are dangerous people.

Mohave Rat

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Like a Plague of Locust.



Idaho Homesteader

Anonymous said...

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See, if you won't answer me I'll contract out with HaveMo Rat to do the dirty work.
Slammer jammer; death rate vs survival birth rate: brief balance top of the coaster---
"Ashes, ashes we all fall down!!"
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WOULD YOU DO ""SOMETHING"" to please me; Now!!
No, i don't know what I want, 'cept you ain't it. Send me Money! now!!! and forevermore, amen ---57

russell1200 said...

The commonly sighted projections have population peaking around 10 billion.

But the growth is very uneven, and future projections are always problematic.

In the past the main drivers of depopulation have been disease, and a lowering of the birth rate that comes with the stress caused by over population. When things get crappy, people stop having children.

You can see the Malthusian cycle through much of history, but it was dampened by the industrial and technology revolutions.

Bubblehead Les. said...

Agree! Prep Now!

Vector said...

Back when "Be Fruitful and Multiply" was first said, there were zero people on the earth. It was first said to the animals, if we're going by the Bible.

The "huge population increase" from the 1770's on is due to the fact that people aren't dying of scarlet fever and typhoid fever at 4 years old on a regular basis. Food and basic sanitation has lengthened the human lifespan. The population growth rate has somewhat leveled off and is steady, except in Europe, where they don't believe strongly enough in anything to make them want to pass down their beliefs. So they import Muslims to do it for them.

America alone produces enough food to feed the entire world at least twice over. The problem is not a lack of resources. It's the presence of interventionist States. The people of Cuba, India, and most African countries are dirt poor because they are ruled by socialist thugs, not because there is a "lack of resources."

You want a laugh? Go read "The Population Bomb," by Robert Ehrlich. Written in 1968. It was touted by all the intelligentsia of the day. Do you remember that? And how all the mainstream scientists in the late 70's were sure we were all going to perish in global cooling? An inconvenient about face! All the dire predictions he made were the same things people are screaming about today. His predictions? Wrong. So very wrong. The same old Malthusian B.S., served on a different plate. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb

You want the truth about humans and natural resources? Read Julian Simon's book "The Ultimate Resource," and "The Ultimate Resource II."

Vector said...

An interesting interchange between Simon and Ehrlich. A wager on commodity prices.

Simon won, hands down, because his economic model was correct. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager

Ranger Man said...

This is a good post. Too few people are talking about this and governments aren't interested in addressing it, because 1) it's not a popular topic, 2) people don't want to do what they have to do to address it, and 3) capitalism is dependent on more, more and more.