probable v possible

PROBABLE V POSSIBLE


I’ve been getting a lot more questions on wheat lately. I can conclude one of two things from this. One, I’m getting a lot more new readers who love my writing and aren’t scared away by my caustic attitude, intense paranoia or really poor attitude. Or, far more realistically since I DON’T get new readers ( just a steady replacement amount to the disgruntled and disgusted that run away ) and wouldn’t even get new readers if the fallout from a thousand nuclear bombs ( Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons ) were headed their way because even then they would be unwilling to endure reality any sooner than was necessary, everyone is just now waking up to the looming grain crisis. A month or two ago when I warned you of this, when the Canadian wheat shortages were reported, when there was a drought in Asia and a flood in Pakistan, you totally ignored me and went about your business. Then, when the mainstream media reported the futures markets panicking as corn prices shot up in one day and when Rawles ( Patriots: Surviving the Coming Collapse ) provided a link to that article, only then did you panic. And who was here to help, the handy frugal prep guy? It’s okay, don’t hate yourself. I love getting karmic brownie points passing this stuff along. This Friday, after overwhelming support from the screaming mobs of loyal minions, I will start what I whimsically am titling “Fundamentals Fridays”. I wanted Rehash or Basics but no day started with an R or B. Friday’s subject will be on buying wheat. For those of you that have all this information, this is why I wanted to call it BASICS. For those hungering for the information, it was the least I could do. Remember, this will most likely cannibalize my “Frugal Survivalist” ( THE FRUGAL SURVIVALIST disaster preparations under $500 ) book sales. So to compensate, I’m going to have to insist you buy through my Amazon links.

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Today, let’s talk about the possible verses the probable. I look at all the things happening around me and think it quite probable that we are at the beginning of a collapse. And not just a slow collapse but a waterfall collapse. But of course it is also possible that the restructuring of society into a localized sustainable society will be gradual rather than sudden. If I gamble on a sudden collapse and nothing happens I am not inconvenienced or endangered. If I gamble on a slow collapse on the other hand, and I’m wrong, I could end up dead. Rawles and Greer ( The Ecotechnic Future: Envisioning a Post-Peak World ) would like you to bet on a slow collapse. I would like you to bet on a sudden one. Now, I’m not saying that those two gentlemen are wrong ( and I’m not saying they are the only ones ), just that you are betting your life on them not being wrong. Look at my ego. Do I look like I have any doubts about my position? Do I sound like I’m unsure of my conclusions? But my ego isn’t so inflated that I’m willing to bet your life on it. And, yes, everyone is responsible for their own actions. But as a writer I think you do have a responsibility as to what you put in print to some degree. Rawles, who is only named because he currently epitomizes all that is Yuppie Survivalism ( it’s not about income but attitude ), is so careful to only give you proper advice that the advice itself might be harmful. If I told you to only buy farmland with a stream and to own a ten thousand dollar arsenal ( not including ammo ) I am giving you the absolutely best advice for how to grow your own food and protect yourself. But since it costs a lot if will take awhile. And if we don’t have that time the advice becomes harmful. Again, I like Rawles. He is a squared away guy and I honestly think he wishes to help people. I applaud his financial success, it was hard won and deserved. I just disagree with his analysis of our situation and the future. It isn’t personal. But when you climb to the top of the food chain you in effect become what it stands for.

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If I knew for sure the way the crash would be I’d certainly not be living in my current location. Elko is a small town but it still has too many people. And five miles out of town isn’t that much of a buffer. But it was a compromise between the boonies and keeping a job to pay off the evil ex. It is counterproductive to be in jail come the end. If I knew positively the end would be sudden I would hide a lot better from everyone. But since a sudden collapse is probable rather than guaranteed I have to play the wishing game like the rest of you. The difference is that even as I pray for more time it isn’t essential. If the ass fell out of society tomorrow I could survive okay. Baring attacking motorcycle zombie gangs ( Gangs of the Dead ) of course. But even if we don’t see eye to eye, surely you can see my point that preparing for the worst isn’t a bad idea. So what if you are out a few hundred or at most a few thousand? In the long run that is cell phone or cable TV pocket change.

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Now, I realize that humans don’t change how they think without trauma. I know this, yet I keep appealing to your reason. I’ve been traumatized with the prospect of homelessness and hunger long ago and it did give me the motivation to live the prepper life. I’m perhaps being unfair to expect you to do the same without the trauma. But what am I supposed to do? Burn your house down and get you fired, free with every newsletter subscription? I realize the hopelessness of my cause and yet can’t help but try. For goodness sakes, spend a bit extra for multi-year supplies of food, a loan free place to live and a few pieces of equipment. Then you can join me making fun of those that didn’t as the Apocalypse ( The Apocalypse ) rolls on. Hahaha, silly rabbit. MRE’s are for hurricanes, buckets of wheat are for hundred year droughts, massive solar ejections, Yellowstone eruptions, Peak Oil and the feds trying to starve the Constitutionalist rebels. It is always possible that things turn out okay. If it does, enjoy. If it doesn’t, have the supplies beforehand. Or, wait too long and wheat is $100 a bushel.

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My e-mail is jimd303@netzero.com
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