warming the cackles

WARMING THE CACKLES


Creekmore posted a guest article that warned of EMP attack ( Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat of the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack - 2008 ) and Chinese invasion ( MythBusters Season 3 - Episode 39: Chinese Invasion Alarm ) and a few other things. The replies varied between “read One Second After” to “why worry, you can’t control diddly”. An EMP might be unlikely, now, and a Chinese attack is both logistically improbable and unlikely because of our nuclear deterrent. As things stand presently this is quite true. But to deny the future possibility ignores history. Hitler didn’t attack Russia because he loved the idea of opening another front but because he wanted to control what he needed, oil. Yes, I realize he was getting it already from Russia on favorable trade terms. So that does throw a monkey wrench into that explanation. There was something else afoot. But wars are fought over water and oil and food. As the oil decreases, military adventures previously presumed to be suicidal or ill advised will be tried. I don’t think China will bother invading our country, per se. Perhaps a coastal area or two for oil and farmland, but not the whole country. Who the hell wants to occupy Detroit ( Doctor Detroit )? But if they do it will be once our nuclear threat has decreased. I would assume they will have better luck attacking their neighbors. Closer, cheaper, less blowback. The whole point to keep in mind is that the whole military equation will change as oil becomes dear ( I might claim that point is already here ).

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And over at Survival Acres, we are treated to a few fun facts that will warm the cackles of your heart. http://survivalacres.com/wordpress/?p=2072

I normally take his eco doom and gloom with a dose of salt. We are all going to die, but I think resource depletion will kill us before pollution. Too many commodities are only now available by increased energy use for their extraction ( very little ore or coal left in tons of rock requiring extra energy to separate ) at a time energy is becoming scarcer. However, his simple question on global warming ( The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists ) does get one to perk up their ears and wonder aloud. If we had rising temperatures during the waning of solar energy, how hot will it get after the solar energy swings back to maximum? Leave aside whether global warning is man made or not. If it is man made, no one will stop burning fossil fuels so it will get hotter. And if it is man made, it more than likely already has passed the point of no return anyway. On the other hand, if it is natural we are still screwed. You can stop it as well as you can stop an earthquake. And even if we are not sure if cooling is our future rather than warming, it still doesn’t matter because either way we will see massive crop failures. Too cold is just as bad as too hot.

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But let’s assume for arguments sake that we are seeing increased global warming. Rangerman is most likely screwed since the melting ice caps ( Why Are the Ice Caps Melting?: The Dangers of Global Warming (Let's-Read-and-Find-Out Science 2) ) will dilute the Atlantic conveyor belt and the American east coast and Europe will get a heck of a lot colder as everyone else gets dry and warm. Remember our last global famines a bit over a hundred years ago? The band from Brazil across Africa and into India all saw “global warming” crop losses and famine. Which supports the theory of natural warming over man made, but, again, leave that aside for now. We just went through year after year of droughts ( Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought: A Global Study ) in all the wheat producing nations. And what if we see it again, with other areas seeing flooding ( the never arriving rain goes elsewhere ). What if it got any hotter? We have already “weathered” severe crop failures. That doesn’t necessarily mean we can remain untouched. It might mean we have no more room for error. No more ability to shake off those kind of disasters. So little international news filters into our consciousness, it is hard to get a good idea how many people elsewhere are effected by weather extremes. Our media does a wonderful job keeping the sheep from bolting. How many millions are going hungry in Pakistan? How much extra grain are they buying from the market, decreasing the supply? If we have no more reserves globally ( in ten years the reserves pretty much fed the added mouths even as yields increased, until almost no reserves remain ), how big of an increased demand from crop failure will set off a chain reaction? The lack of figures points to me the bad news being ignored, but I could just be paranoid. And all this is just weather related. What about our decreasing oil?

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Okay, assume we will never run out of oil. Let’s not get into a food fight over it again. But our oil is becoming harder to get and more expensive. Already half of our nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing has moved overseas both to be closer to the natural gas ( High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis ) feedstocks and to decrease labor costs. What if something else added to that? A decrease in the dollars value would do it. A small supply disruption domestically. We’ve seen how small disasters escalate out of control. If you add in the likelihood of something else driving up the cost of food, factor in increased global warming, assume continuing population growth, what can you have other than mass grain failures globally? If we saw so many droughts, in Argentina and America and Canada and China, affecting grain crop yields for several years during minimal solar activity, how much worse will it get when the sun increases its energy output ( remember, an eleven year cycle )? And at the same time oil and natural gas are either more expensive or seeing disruptions? Or both? What if, put quite simply, the last three or four years weren’t aberrations but the new normal?

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I’ve bellowed at you to quickly stockpile grain months ago. You didn’t listen. I’m sure this won’t change your mind. But hopefully it will at least plant a seed of doubt. It’s the best I can do for you.

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