Before you automatically dismiss everything I have to say, let’s set the tone by quoting the Druid Dude ( who we all agree is the last voice that will EVER panic ).
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“Even when drastic changes break over a civilization, the people who are affected normally have to spend so much time scrambling to make ends meet that the scale of the transformation becomes evident only in retrospect. I’ve come to think we’re in the middle of such a process right now. Recent headlines note events that most people would have considered cataclysmic not that long ago. The price of oil is bouncing along above $80 a barrel, the International Energy Agency has now admitted that peak oil happened in 2006, the United States is openly covering its debts by means of the printing press, and agricultural commodity prices have jolted upwards to unprecedented levels under the paired pressures of an increasingly unstable climate and a disintegrating global economic system, just for starters. If I’d presented a scenario for 2010 ten years ago that included these details, most people who read it would have dismissed me as a wild-eyed prophet of doom.” The Druid Dude, ladies and gentlemen, 11-18-2010 http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
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I included the entire above quote for a sense of the whole article, but note the part about Peak Oil ( Peak Oil Survival: Preparation for Life After Gridcrash
) being “official”. In the 1950’s an oil geologist named Hubbert forecast that the continental US would hit a bell curve peak in its oil production in 1970. We did. After an all time high of 10 million barrels a day for the lower 48 we now produce five million a day which includes that oil from Alaska and the Gulf Of Mexico. Taking Hubberts methodology others ( Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (New Edition)
) forecast in the 1990’s that global oil production would peak from sometime between 2000 and 2010. Obviously, it has. Peak Oil is no longer a wild eye theory but a fact seen in hindsight. We are at the plateau of the global production cycle and it is just a question of time before we go down the other side. Worldwide oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s and have declined ever since. This is all fact. What is in question is how long the level production lasts, how quick or slow the decline will be and what all the repercussions are. Peak Oil is in the rear view mirror, and debating it only uses up energy best put towards preparing for the effects ( not that you all won’t argue anyway ). I don’t even know why it is all so hard to accept. Resources are used up. When you chop down the last tree on Easter Island ( Island at the End of the World: The Turbulent History of Easter Island
) it is kind of silly to argue that twigs from the shrubbery will provide the same uses the trees did. When you compare renewable energy to oil you compare a reed to an oak.*
Look, I understand that in theory there are many decent alternatives to oil. If there is enough energy left to produce enough silicone to cover the Mohave desert to give us all our electricity we need ( I don’t know if there is- and if there is, could the civilian economy be put on hold long enough without crashing so that you could transition? ), why hasn’t it been done over the last forty years? Because our entire existence to include those in power are running off of a 99% oil economy. Oil built the modern American country and oil runs it. Not natural gas ( despite the promise of frack gas their fields do play out abnormally quick ). Not coal ( most of the high energy coal is gone, only leaving the low energy crap ). Certainly not solar or wind. On an individual level solar ( Sunforce 50044 60-Watt Solar Charging Kit
) is fine. But it doesn’t run an empire founded on oil ( Empires of Industry - Black Gold: The Story of Oil (History Channel)
). Those that are rich and in power haven’t shown any inclination to transition in two generations and I can think of no reason they will. The last eight years have proved that it is business as usual. Burn oil to occupy oil producers. If the transition ever does take place it will still be too late. We will have already used the last of our resources holding on to the old oil dreams and will have no ability to build the new infrastructure. *
If you can accept that the Oil Age is drawing to a close, then you can accept that NOTHING will be the same as it has been. If our entire existence is based on cheap and abundant oil then the end of that condition means it all falls apart. Forget collapse at the time. Even if the draw down is gradual ( I don’t think it will be, I’m just arguing with the best case scenario right now to illustrate my point ) that still means that all our economic and political institutions are going to change for the worse. The welfare state ( From Poor Law to Welfare State, 6th Edition: A History of Social Welfare in America
) is based on surplus energy. Cheap and easy credit for thirty year mortgages and SUV payments are based on continual growth from extra energy. Basics such as retirement and health care are built on free flowing oil. Non-local food production needs oil. Most of our jobs need cheap oil. But oil is no longer cheap or easy to extract. It isn’t just an Oil Age, it is a Cheap And Easy Oil Age. If oil still lasts thirty years ( we should be so lucky- but let’s play pretend ) it won’t be cheap. And EVERYTHING we do needs cheap oil. *
As it is all ending, you need to grasp some basic necessities. The time to stockpile affordable grains is ending. The time to stock up on cheap mass production ammunition is ending. The time to stock up on imported grain grinders ( New Big Hopper Cast Iron Corn Grinder Wheat Grain Nut Grinder
), shoes, underwear, whatever- it is ending soon. This is just common sense. It is still affordable even after doubling in price. Our ancestors would be amazed at how affordable our food is and our grandchildren will not believe you when to tell them. You need to jump at this limited opportunity. Who cares if Gore Warming doesn’t happen and crops don’t all wither? Grain is going up in cost anyway. Get it while you can. Forget about collapse for now and focus on CHEAP AND AFFORDABLE OIL. That condition, if not already dead, is dying. Act now. END OF FUNDAMENTALS- MORE DRIVEL BELOW.
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I know I just wasted energy typing all that out. I’m either preaching to the choir or my best logical presentation lands on deaf ears- ears that won’t accept an unpopular reality. But I have to try anyway. It seems such a waste that my legions won’t survive. Some of you are asshats but you are still my loyal minions reading my daily droning. For just a few hundred bucks a person you can buy such affordable insurance. Anyway, I want to thank all those who tried to help with the pant blousing issue. I stopped at the bike shop last night and bought a couple of those reflector Velcro bands. I hate Velcro and especially the thought of replacing them each year but it was expedient and almost affordable. Yes, elastic with those fasteners is cheaper but the wife won’t sew even though she has two battery ( or 12v ) portable machines. She was spoiled on a conventional machine I guess.
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I think I’ll be posting guest articles but I haven’t had time to check out those e-mails yet. Check this weekend.
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The Official Bison Web Site http://www.bisonpress.com/
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My e-mail is jimd303@netzero.com
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Anyone can submit a guest article. No minimum word length, no writing skill necessary ( just get the idea across ). You retain copyright ( this must be your original writing ) and I’ll just use the once. I’ve yet to turn down an article, just don’t use the N Bomb or libel another that can sue me. Send by e-mail ( please, label as “guest article” so I can find it easily later ). Payment will be your removal from my enemies list.
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4 comments:
You don't have to cover the Mojave desert with silicon (which I agree would take a TON of energy--maybe more than we have left) to get solar energy.
You only have to cover it with mirrors to concentrate the light on a small area of either silicon (for concentrated PV) or liquid sodium (for concentrated solar thermal).
Mirrors are much cheaper than silicon.
It absolutely can be done.
It WON'T be done until oil is expensive.
The market really does work when it comes to efficiency and alternative energy.
When middle management paper-shufflers can make $100,000/yr and gas cost $1.50/gallon, it made no sense to try to conserve. Drive that Escalade at 90, baby.
But put that person on $300/wk unemployment, and gas costs $5/gallon, then all of the sudden all the simple efficiency things and alternatives make sense. Cooking for free with a solar cooker, building a solar heating wall for your house with some plastic sheeting and 2x4s (it looks ghetto but I've seen it keep workshops in north Michigan warm in January with nothing but sunlight), grow potatoes in old tires, etc...
The Romans conquered Europe and built roads and aquaducts without oil or coal or even steam power. We've already got the roads and aquaducts built--all we need to do is maintain them. And we'll have coal and steam and solar and electricity.
I'm not saying that buying some wheat is a bad idea, but the reason is that prices are going up and not the "doomer vision" that wheat will be unavailable at any price.
Huh I'm a dude and I know how to sew. Why do you think military uniforms have such excellent, and easy-to-sew-on buttons? So a dude can repair his uniform. I only know hand-sewing, survival sewing. I can fix a popped hem, replace buttons, general repairs. Everyone ought to know how to do this.
I still think if bicycles come back into fashion like they were in the 1890s ("the horse you don't have to feed") knickerbocker type pants may well come back into fashion. Bicycle messengers have experimented with them a little bit lately, basically they're those pants that go just below the knee, with a button on the side. You wear long socks that cover the calf, and typically these are worn with low-quarter shoes since you're walking or riding a bicycle. I"m toying with the idea of "knickerizing" some pants and riding around wearing 'em just to see the looks I get. One movie with Viggo Martensen (or whoever the hot guy actor is now) in it wearing 'em and that will do it. Bicycle Of Doom .... Starring ... Viggo Martenson (and his knickers!) lol.
Peak oil isn't only about energy but also all of the things that are petroleum-based such as: medications, plastics,fertilizers, etc.
I'm concerned that no one is talking about that. We are a 'petroleum-based economy' not just 'oil-based'.
Hope all the dick head politicos that are in the pockets of big oil run out of gas on the way to the hospital because they are out of medication.
Keep on ranting please.
I like FRIDAY FUNDAMENTALS. Nice Job.
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