am I a dumbass?

AM I A DUMBASS?


Okay, I made a bunch of predictions January 1st. How did I do?

1)Any increase in the stock market will be below the rate of inflation.
We could argue about this one since you are taking on faith either the governments official inflation rate or that of private citizens weighing in the matter, such as Shadow Stats. I think it was close enough, but you might disagree. At the very least, any to all gains are largely illusionary. But even if I did go a bit paranoid, you would still be a dumbass if you put any of your wealth into this turd.

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2)Related to the first, any rate of growth in the economy will be below the real rate of inflation. I think this one was a no-brainer. You can’t have growth, other than what printed money produces, as your energy supply shrinks. Not that it took too much brilliance to forecast this one, since our real growth rate after inflation is factored in has been negative for quite some time.

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3)GMC will keep getting government “loans”. I don’t know where I stand on this one since I haven’t followed up on it at all. I know that there were a series of commercials where the Head Idiot In Charge claimed he was a really swell guy and all Americans should worship him and all nubile females should rip off their clothes in his presence since he had paid back the loans. This was quickly discredited on the Web as more than one person did the math and pointed out his claim was fuzzy at best and a Gott Damn Lie at worse. I think it was taking some of the loan to pay some other part or something such as that. As far as I know the loan is still outstanding. So in all fairness let’s call this one wrong, prediction wise. Two for three so far.

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4)Oil will go over a hundred bucks a barrel. There is a week to go in the year and oil has solidified its position over $90 a barrel. Technically I didn’t get this one right but to be fair, isn’t it close enough? Most of you probably thought $80 or $90 was too high of a forecast since you are convinced that oil will never run out and the dollar will always be #1. I chuckle at your sweet innocence.

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5)Priced globally, at least one cereal grain will double in price and stay there. Wheat went up over 80% this year. Again, technically, I’m wrong. But since this is my blog and I make up the rules as I go along, mainly in a vain attempt to emulate the Head Hefe at Government Motors trying to get all available females to lust after me, I call it close enough. I should also point out that for the longest time I was about the only one worrying about the situation as the wheat prices started climbing. If you would only listen to me then you will have a heads up on what to panic about. Again and again and again ( did I mention, again? ) I tell you to panic early and no one does. Let this be a lesson to you. I told you months ago to buy wheat as it was going up ( and whenever I’m wrong, I try to have advice that at worst prompts you to do the right thing but too early ).

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6)Oil imports into the US will decline at a Year To Year rate of 15%. I usually get all my oil import decline info from that beautiful bastard over at http://americanenergycrisis.blogspot.com/ who I love all to pieces. He is a goldmine of information, tells it like it is ( he doesn’t spare the feelings of Senior Welfare Recipients ) and is not afraid to admit he was wrong. He went from stock pusher to self sustaining farmer ( poor folk, do not try this at home ). Assuming he is not a casualty of nearby earls and barons fighting over his lush cropland, he should weather the collapse better than most. Okay, wait a sec while I pull my nose out of his ass. There we go. I haven’t seen anything there with the latest decline figures. I’ll guess I went a bit high on my figures and call this one wrong, but don’t be surprised if I come back and do the hip thrusting, tongue displaying, nayner-naynering “I told you so” dance once I get the numbers.

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7)Real unemployment goes over 20%. Again, we are faced with differing statistics. Who do you believe? I’ll call this one correct. Stick with me here a minute. It might seem like I’m cheating to make myself look good but in reality it ain’t looking to good as far as my abilities forecasting. We’ll cover that in a moment.

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8)Gold will have to reach $2k before the Bison Blog gets 2k daily readers. Remember, I wasn’t forecasting gold as going to $2k but rather tying the price of gold to my readership numbers. I had shown gold as $1100 while my reader numbers were about 1100. Well, I got this one wrong. My readers still number between 1100 and 1200 while gold has risen higher. Curses! You would think that as the economy took more power dives off the edge of the sewage pond more folks would flock to my frugal wisdom. Rather, those folks went to Rawles as he promised them less pain for more money. I don’t necessarily blame them. Culture follows food. Whatever feeds us, we adopt. Money is the only means of feeding us so it is no surprise that people worship money. My problem is that I’m pointing out that the money for food system is destined to fail before folks can make it to their Super Deluxe Bat Caves, which pisses them off to no end. It is my fault, I suppose. But look at the bright side, all those unworthies that turned away from the Bison Truth just make you look smarter for supporting me in the style I deserve.

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9)California will get serious cash from the Feds, although not actual called a bailout by them. Remember the loan offer? The federales offer to split the cost of a banker bailout interest payment if the states and locals borrow more to live yet another year or two. Obviously they are desperate to please the Bernenke Banker Overlords who are frantically clutching at straws. I call this one right on the money.

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10)Last one, so I tried for a prediction that would get you all worked up and uppity and would fill my soul with a warm fuzzy feeling for putting you there in that state. Battle rifle ammunition ( not pistol or carbine ), current manufacture, brass and reloadable, will go over a dollar a round regular price ( discounting any company offloading inventory before bankruptcy ). I was WAYYYY off on this one. I called for bulk buys to go for a buck a round and instead they decreased by almost fifty percent.

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11) I added this one a bit later. My local Dollar Store would go bankrupt due to too few items being available for under a buck. While the dollar store crap isn’t anywhere near as good as a year ago ( outside their LED lights, anyway ), I was still off on this one as they have stayed in business and are busier than ever pushing plastic crap to the masses.

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I got almost half wrong, five out of eleven. Since I pretty much thought all these predictions were slam dunks, that points to an even worse record of prediction. And I had to cheat on “close enough to count” just to not look even worse. So, clearly, yes, I am a dumbass. Enjoy your moment of triumph.

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My e-mail is jimd303@netzero.com
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