Thursday, March 03, 2011

price rationing

PRICE RATIONING


Well, there they go again. Another e-mail bleating that if we could all just join hands, sing folk ballads, smoke some weed and pray for world peace we CAN after all just get along. Oh, wait. Wrong delusion. If we all boycott the two biggest oil companies they would be forced to lower prices. On. My. Friggin. God. Becky! People, please don’t forward this kind of crap my way if you can help it. You are just embarrassing yourself. First off, and this is important so please try to pay attention to what I’m saying here instead of getting a dreamy look on your face and absentmindedly rubbing your nipples as you dream of a black knight on a white horse saving you from your own stupidity like if you think just putting a salad bar in every school will wipe out obesity, the government makes far more money on each gallon of gasoline you buy than the oil companies do in profit. They might put some of it into road repairs or they might just spend it on a retired mayor making a half million on year on his pension. You don’t get to choose. And second, the private oil companies are no longer in control of petroleum anymore. They are pumping less than 20% of the global supply ( if memory serves ) and the rest of the oil is under the control of sovereign nation states. And while we’re on oil, if you believe the article over at http://www.oftwominds.com/ we are still producing half of our own energy supply. Inferring that ALL IS WELL, REMAIN CALM, DO NOT PANIC. Ignored was the fact that several years ago the figure was much lower. His figures ignore all the imports we no longer are getting. And it ignores the additional cost of turning half our corn into ethanol. I’m sorry, I don’t buy that only waste corn is being used and the remains go to animal feed. If that was the case our grain and meat and dairy prices wouldn’t be through the roof.

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A lot of ink is given over to predicting the coming price rationing. Rather than, say, restrictions being placed on your filling up only on certain days of the week ( really smart, like saying water rationing works when the residents flood their lawns three times a week trying to keep them alive, in total wasting more water than when they were allowed to water daily ), the “free” market is allowed to ration much better by raising prices. What was the figure given for the number of pages regulating the sale of cabbage? 300,000? It is kind of hard to call our economic system free market when that level of control is in place covering every aspect of our being. Sounds suspiciously like fascism to me. But, just to go along with the propaganda, let’s call it supply and demand free market price rationing. This is the whole rational behind demand destruction. The price gets too high, the use drops, prices drop again. That works great with movie tickets ( absent Redbox, of course ) or automobiles. But not so hot with oil when to be able to afford a house during the bubble Sam and Suzy Homeowner had to live out far away from work. They have two choices. Pay whatever oil costs to get to work or start looking for a cute highway overpass to start living under. And it certainly doesn’t work with food. You must eat. Period. And not everyone can garden much more than their vegetables. They still need to buy their calorie foods.

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Price rationing isn’t meant to be a solution. It is a condition. The only reason the middle east is in an uproar is because of food costs ( arriving at democracy is a bonus, not a goal ). We could intervene. Not by sending Hillary over there to scare the crap out of everyone with her Satanic ways, not by counting the barrels of uranium we have left and deciding if we can afford to send a token fleet over there. But by immediately halting our ethanol program and putting that corn back on the market. We won’t of course. We started this course of insanity years ago with Mexico. Their oil fields started slowing production and we stopped sending them subsidized corn. Remember the Tortilla Riots? We are using food as a weapon as more and more countries started sending their oil to China instead of to us. Hello? Anyone remembering the 20% reduction in oil imports over the last five years? The only thing I can figure out is that now we can’t reverse course- if we took ten percent of the liquid fuel off the transportation market our economy would melt down immediately. It will get there eventually, granted, but no one DOESN’T postpone pain if they can help it.

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Price rationing has been in effect for some time globally. You’ve felt it, too. But the difference this time is that the supply of everything is drying up. We’ve passed overshoot some time ago. The point of all this? Prices rising are somewhat due to inflation. But beware a far more hideous reason. Things just aren’t there anymore. With inflation, eventually a new currency emerges. With scarcity, you just pay more and more until you can’t afford it. As the price continues to rise until the supply ends. There is no reset button. As Rawles has said in the past, “not available at any price” ( I like to pull Rawles kicking and screaming into my universe just so I shine by association ). We can hold on for God knows how much longer. Every trick will be tried to keep the collapse from getting total. This is a given. But are you thinking about how everything you need for preps will not be available, long before the end. Not available at any price. Do you think firearms are worth twice the price they were two years ago? Of course not. And it is no longer about Obammy. It is about demand. Never ending, ever increasing demand. Guns are just a bit of plastic or wood and a little metal. The engineering for them is 50-100 years old. They are not so expensive because of material or labor cost. But because of price rationing ( ammo went down, even though it is more commodity price sensitive-why? Every non-firearm owner is rushing into self protection, guns first and ammo a distant second ). All your preps will do likewise. Not just obvious ones like grain and guns. The sheeple aren’t as stupid as we think. The downside is you are being priced out of the market. Act now before it is too late.

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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

While my hair is still inferior to yours, I must still take exception with your rational on why oil prices can't be curbed with decreased demand. Two factors are at play.

While it's true that oil is not like other commodities (as you mentioned in the article, if a new car goes up in price we buy used or fix the old one). It's not like we don't have options. I think you would see more telecommuting and car pooling. We saw it the last time gas spiked but it didn't last long because the spike didn't last long. I personally saw several of my co-workers use the "working from home" line more the last time around. I also believe that the enterprising spirit (a.k.a. I'm jobless and I'll do anything mentality) will kick in and we'll see make shift "public transportation" companies start up. A quick add on Craigslist and all of a sudden I'm picking up two "paying fares" on my way to work.

The second factor is price itself. While suburban dwellers will have to pay any price for the gas to get them to work, that's only true to a point. At some point it is no longer profitable to drive to work. If I spend $500 a week in gas to earn a $400 paycheck there is no point in going in.

What say you, Lord Bison?

-Novice

russell1200 said...

When you think of us exporting food: think water. Most countries have the physical space to grow food. What they don't have is water. That is why the Suadi's are so into desalinization.

This author has a good discussion of it. If you read him, you will even more things to be scared about. He tends to be middle of the road in the alarmist level: which just means you get to fill in the worst case scenerios for yourself.

http://www.amazon.com/World-2050-Shaping-Civilizations-Northern/dp/0525951814

Anonymous said...

oh WOW!

Dont understand why in the world wife #2 left you.

Youre a survivalist, AN ECONOMIST, a weapons advisor, an expert on junk land and trailer living.

You are a walking encyclopedia.

I'll bet she regrets leaving you (or kicking you out).

" WIFE #2, YOUR LOSS!"

one of your fans.

Anonymous said...

This is expected, but superpails (6 gallon containers sealed in mylar bags) of wheat just went up ~15% in cost over at Emergency Essentials this month. I believe they were at about $36 and now they are about $44. An expected price correction given the global wheat shortage and rise in price, but sobering nonetheless. Glad I bought a bunch of these when I did.

FernWise said...

Yesterday, for the first time, I went to buy wheat and there wasn't any. The feed store had sold their last 3 bags earlier in the day. The soonest they will get more will be on Saturday. And this is with 50 pound sacks of feed wheat at $16 each. I'm hoping that next week, on the day or two I'll have access to a car, I can get a couple hundred more pounds, but we'll see how that goes.

Corn was still available - at $13 for a 50 pound bag. I never thought I'd see corn at that price!

This was after going to the drug store and being told they were out of what I wanted there.

But the stock market is way up today, so everything MUST be fine and dandy.

Anonymous said...

Great article Lord B ! And while I am at it, your flowing locks are the envy of the bimbettes in the Loreal commercials. I just picked up another 800 pounds of wheat at the Mormon cannery. $410 for 800 pounds of professionally packaged wheat, sales tax included! The Mormons may stop selling to the unwashed unbelievers if demand goes too high so get moving! My local cannery has an unreal variety of survival foods for cheap.

Suburban Survivalist said...

"Do you think firearms are worth twice the price they were two years ago? Of course not. And it is no longer about Obammy. It is about demand. "

I've been watching pretty close and have not seen this. From 2008 to 2009 there was a panic increase, but prices have come down since 2009, I'm pretty sure.