rate of decline

RATE OF DECLINE


I had a minion send me his e-book, Gardening In A Failed Economy. His web site is here

http://distributedliving.net/

I loved his economic analysis, and I think the book has great merit. In effect, how to quickly and cheaply get an emergency garden going. I thought the price was a bit on the ridiculously high side, but that aside I think the information would be very useful. I’m sure some will bitch and complain that you can find the information on U-Tube or whatever. Possibly you can. It is up to you to determine if his price is right, I merely throw in my two cents that I think the info is solid. Do with it as you will.

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Writing this on Tuesday, I had to respond to a commenter. He sent his love, but still thought that by posting three days ahead of schedule I lost touch with current, immediate events. To a point, true. When I started this blog I would write at lunch, revise that evening and post the next morning. I could comment on events as they were happening. But I was also on grid, not living out at the Bison Compound. Now, Internet and electricity must be rationed. But then I got thinking about it. Who told you weeks before it was officially acknowledged that the Japanese nuclear meltdown would be as bad a Chernobyl? Who told you before the housing bubble topped that a mortgage was a really stupid idea? Now, who is getting their ass handed to them when increased property taxes come due? While it is true I can’t comment about things as they happen, I can also analyze a lot better on future trends influenced by current events. Rather than just being a news reporter. I’m not claiming clairvoyance. I’m only claiming common sense and an overly paranoid nature that is finally paying off. But it seems to be working. Just go with it.

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Speaking of insanely high cost books, last night I read the book “Peak Oil And The Second Great Depression ( 2010-20130 )”. The damn thing was priced at $13, and even though it was masterfully stretched out to about 60 pages, there was only about 16,000 words to it. For comparison, my book Frugal Survivalist is about 42k. The information was great. Peak Oil was laid out for the novice, and from there the author gave you his financial advice on how to survive the downturn. But there was one problem with the investment advice. Behind it lay a faulty premise. Namely, that the world oil production would mirror that of the US oil decline. WOW!!!! Stop the presses, holy bat crap. If the world oil production is going to SLOWWWWLY halve over four decades, then his paper investments might be a good idea. But if they fall much quicker, having your savings in ANY paper asset is akin to wiping your ass with your wealth and flushing it down the toilet. And, no, I don’t think things will fall quickly just because I’m a doomer. I think things will go to hell quickly because the US production decline cannot be repeated on a global scale.

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In 1971 the US pumped 10 million barrels a day of crude. Today, with the Gulf Of Mexico and Alaska thrown in ( plus the North Dakota oil ), we pump five million. A casual observer would think that it took forty years to lose half our oil and that we had another forty to go before we ran out. But they would miss the point. We don’t USE half the oil. We use more, comprised of imports. The domestic oil was replaced by other peoples oil. And we did that because we controlled global trade and the currency. And for all intents and purposes the allocation of oil. There was oil to replace what we didn’t have. We didn’t do without the oil, we still needed just as much. Today, with global production halted and at its plateau, growth in supply is over and done. There are only one way to get more oil now. Steal it from somebody else. The rest of the world is facing the same uncontrollable decline as we are seeing. And if we can’t prop up our economy on the backs of others as we have been doing, our economy is doomed. So how is it that our economy will ever recover? The book correctly forecasts peak, then inflation, but somehow assumes paper assets will still hold value twenty years into the future. Paper assets are a hollow promise. I simply can’t believe 99% of bitches out there are still so hung up on money as a gauge of security. Where is the security in holding a promissory note that can be revoked at will? The author is just as ignorant. And he is profiting at about five bucks a book to give this advice. Do NOT buy this book.

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In 1971, when we peaked in domestic oil, the world supply of oil was still growing ( the last major fields were discovered in the 60’s- and keep in mind forty years is about it for any field before decline ). It taint no more. In 1971, global population was about half what it is today ( more or less ). In 1971, oil importers didn’t need much oil for their own population, unlike today. In 1971, we could almost feed the whole world so the other countries could trade oil for cheap grain. Now, we use half our corn supply for ten percent of our gasoline. In short, the world can’t have a slow decline in oil because there are too many factors forcing the use of more oil from a shrinking supply. Overpopulation is far more unforgiving than it was forty years ago. There will be a continued need for more energy, just to keep everyone alive. The US cutting back on its usage now, soon to be followed by China as its economy implodes, will stretch out the time period before catastrophe. But soon enough there will be no more fat to trim. We will start burning muscle. You think we have plenty of war now? Wait until the ranks of hungry swell. There might not be enough energy to feed everyone, but it doesn’t take that much energy to manufacture munitions ( at least on a small scale battlefield ).

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The world economy won’t follow the US example as oil slowly eases. The world will emulate Africa as population surges and energy availability shrinks. War, what is it good for? Obviously, getting rid of food consumers.

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The Official Bison Web Site http://www.bisonpress.com/
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My e-mail is jimd303@netzero.com
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