Saturday, May 07, 2011

commodities dive

COMMODITY DIVE


I’m still scratching my head in befuddlement and confusion. Oil drops ten percent in a matter of days, Silver goes down almost thirty percent. The dollar goes up against other currencies. Now, since I love to scream and point to the price hikes in these commodities as proof of collapse, how am I going to explain their fall? It surely can’t be proof of a recovery. Let’s all try to stay up as I use convoluted logic and a lot of butt pulling guesses here. I don’t believe in the gnomes behind the curtains pulling the strings controlling events. Not to the point of total control. Things are controlled to a certain degree. You can’t tell me the stock market is anything other than a controlled scam, used to convince the greater fools to part with their wealth and keeping the pension funds of states going way past the point of biological animation of any natural sort ( zombie pensions in other words ). You can create money out of thin air and keep a lot of activity going. But I have a hard time believing that you can meaningfully drop the price on a commodity that is in short supply. Such as oil and silver. Okay, so the margin call on silver futures is being tweaked right now causing a lot of sales. People are getting out of the game. But there is still a huge shortage of physical metal. The silver drop has got to be a short term occurrence. If the entire worlds fiat currency supply is being inflated, at the same time that the physical supply of precious metal is in short supply in relation to population growth and demand as a safe haven, long term the price of precious metals has got to go up. If all your preps are in order, and all debt is paid, I would consider this a buying period. Don’t sell them if you’ve got them. And, yes, all currencies will always fail. They always have and always will, as long as they are backed by empty promises. So I suppose the wild gyrations of the price of the dollar in relation to other currencies is to be expected. I do defer in all things economic to Ure, Smith and Jeffers. None of the above is really my original ideas.

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Now, oil, that is the tough one. Almost all of the globes oil is now controlled by national governments. The Five Sisters no longer run the show ( say what you will about Putin, he rescued Russia from the West’s banker and oil company control –if he hadn’t, perhaps things would have collapsed a bit slower for the US ), controlling the oil. The US imports 20% less oil than it did five years ago, which tells me that the dollar pricing in oil no longer confers an advantage or fundamental control. So, if the cutbacks in Saudi Arabia and the production halts in Libya took 3%+ of the oil off the market in just a few months time, how can oil suddenly drop 10%? Almost back to the point before those two shortages appeared? The dollars becomes worth less every month. Are you telling me that suddenly, over the course of a few days, the worlds other currencies dropped that much in value, above and beyond what the dollar is losing? That is about the only explanation I can come up with. The Japanese currency is pretty much done. There trio of disasters would have been equivalent to our New Madrid quake ripping apart the entire Mississippi area. No nation can survive that kind of hit. Japan is done. Jeffers is now claiming that the Australian dollar is toast. I don’t know why, being continuously behind on both news and analysis that is topical ( most new news is blog condensed, most analysis research is from year + old books ). But I’ll take him at his word. We all know the Euro is a sickly bastard, and keeps getting worse as each new country such as Portugal or Greece fail. So I wonder what other currencies are failing so quickly to make the buck look less pathetic. Could it be intentional?

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Is the only choice of our central bank, in order to keep from failing, to allow or even cause other central banks to crash and burn? It is one thing for Irish banks to get a bail out, then loot the old folks pensions to pay the interest on the loan. At least the bank, the currency and the country still limp along. But now I wonder if it has gone beyond that? Do we have to force currency and economy implosion to keep going ourselves? It almost seems so. Now, I’m working with partial information here. I could be way off. But it is a very interesting question, isn’t it? Are we in an accelerated economic collapse globally? If so, I wonder, not because it matters but just because it is interesting, how much of that is attributed to the fall of Japan. Could that have started the ball rolling? And I wonder how many people are going to fall asleep now that oil and silver took a dive? That would be a side benefit, wouldn’t it? Take money out of silver, too volatile, put it back in the stock market. Suckers. Personally, I wouldn’t count on oil staying down in price. Nor would I expect this controlling action to hold the collapse too much longer. Oh, enjoy the respite. Stock up on beans and flour and ammo. Just don’t get relaxed.

END

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8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Australian $ will be toast, yes; it is a resource backed commodity. Goes up in value like slow stairs, then comes down like an elevator.
Currently about $1.08 US- highest for 20 years.
Seems to be holding so far.......

Anonymous said...

I think the problem is that we don't really have supply and demand markets. With commodity trading and the like, it is all about the psychology and perceptions of things, not reality. If people believe there is going to be plentiful oil over the next few years, the price goes down. The reality of it is inconsequential.

That is why I don't try to time anything. God only knows what the trend will be next week/month/year.

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Anonymous said...

Very interesting times we live in Jim.

On silver, I believe the pull back has something to do with how much $$ down payment you have to come up with if you are playing the "paper" silver market. So this shook out many of the smaller players.

With oil, the most interesting reason I've heard is because the world expects the US economy to tank again, thus we will be using less oil in the near future.

All I know is that when you get these wild of swings in the markets that a lot of stuff is happening behind the curtain that us mere mortals may never become aware of.

This reminds me of a tsunami. We are all standing here watching the tide go out and looking at the fish flop on the beach not realizing that doom is bearing down on us faster than we can run.

Idaho Homesteader

Spud said...

Most definitely the time to buy silver. Yet me thinks sell at $50, cuz all those zillionaires are probly thinking the same thing.

Dollar was probably short term bounce because Obama showed his brass balls momentarily. Soon as it gets chilly again everthin will shrivel right up.

Oil drop, might be because of the temporary glut caused by high gas price.

And I'm probly full of it...

Suburban Survivalist said...

I think this was about Bin Laden. Yeah, we got him, it's all better now. Reality will set in.

There will always be a few dips. Markets are not logic based, really. I'm using this to buy more silver (not for TEOTWAWKI, as a hedge against hyper-inflation). A good deal;

http://www.providentmetals.com/coins/silver-coins/half/franklin-half.html

Anonymous said...

You are over analyzing again, Jim

Ken said...

Hi Jim,

Well, my understanding is that, it's a longer-term game. Stick to your plans - all commodities are going to go up over time, they have to as the paper becomes worth-less. They short and naked-short the crap out of the stuff to lower the short-term price. But, really to long term buyers your just giving them a discount. 4:25 is right, they increase the amount of money you need from 1400 to 22000, to hold a contract, and that drives a lot of people out of that game, but remember that's still paper. Actually getting physical silver is not easy - you've got premiums to pay and delivery delays - everyone playing the game. Just remember the old adage, everything in moderation.