fun reindeer games

FUN REINDEER GAMES


Remember our discussion about the island that had reindeer “seeded” on it? The island, being full of yummy lichen that had grown unencumbered, had six reindeer put on it in the 1940’s. Six. In nineteen years that number that exploded to several thousand. Then, in the mere space of three years the entire population crashed 98%. You can’t just dismiss that by saying reindeer have a brain the size of one of their little pebble turds ( do reindeer have small round turds-inquiring minds do indeed want to know ). Or that we are all that much smarter ( most of our higher brain function goes towards responding to bright and shiny stimuli such as SUV’s ). Because one or even two generations ( and, being an exponential growth after encountering unlimited food supplies, those last numbers are huge ) are already born before it is noticed by anyone, reindeer or people, that the food supply is no longer adequate. And then, simple as can possibly be, your population drops 90-99%. Being smart doesn’t help you at all if you don’t recognize the danger until after you start falling off the cliff. And resources ain’t economics. You can’t fix a material problem with new theories. Are we already overshot? No, go back to sleep. Of course the world can feed seven billion people without petroleum.

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Sigh. I guess I have to spell it out. I was being sarcastic, just in case you were wondering. We can’t even feed one billion folks without petroleum, let alone seven billion of them. We will crash to far below solar farming maximum potential. If we follow the reindeer lead we kill off all but about 120 Million, M as in million, not B as in billion, people globally. However, reindeer don’t have nuclear weapons, motor vehicles still containing some petroleum, semi-automatic weapons and a really bad case of entitlement, nor are they capable of eating each other. I think a better guess is that under one hundred million will survive. Perhaps only a few ten’s of millions. Now, that is the good news. The bad news is that probably every one of us here will be included in the fatalities. We all live too close to each other. We all commute to the same area to work, and we all import our food from other areas. The problem with preventing yourself from being a casualty is that we are first going to go through a economic collapse before a die-off. All those of you safely billeted out on your remote farms will lose the homestead to the bank first. Gasoline will become too expensive to work out of the retreat. If your retreat is paid and you grow all your food and you can stay out of town, you will most likely survive IF, and only if, you have enough extra food and weapons to bribe your helpers to defend it. In this aspect, I agree that Rawles survival plan is the best. I just don’t think you have the time left to slowly acquire all the required supplies and the land as he did.

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Most of us, even myself, I hate to admit, are mostly prepping just to survive an economic collapse. To survive a die-off, if you are poor, can only be achieved with remote property ( even junk land ) and becoming a recluse. Not five miles from town, either. Probably much further. And if you make regular trips into town for employment or supplies, enough that the nearest neighbors notice, your seclusion is seriously hindered even if you are a long ways from town. It only takes one of two people to kill you. Another option is some isolation, and enough food on hand to pay off everyone to help defend you. With the clear defensible space to make that happen. Even the suburbs aren’t out of the question. With enough of a security force, and if the houses aren’t close enough to be a fire hazard. It only costs $150 per person per year to store the bare minimum of wheat, but you are bribing all of your needed security personnel plus all the dependents they drag along with them. You might literally be shelling out thousands of dollars per years worth of food. And human nature being what it is, none of us will do this. We will rationalize away either investing thousands we can’t comfortably afford, or dismiss heading for the boonies due to the very real possibility of losing our freaking mind.

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Yet, reindeer die-off of the human race is not a question of if but of when. It can’t NOT happen. The best guess of the latest is around 2030. Most likely much sooner, since even when Peak Oil denial is overcome, the severity of the downside is usually downplayed. I think we can all agree that usually I’m pretty paranoid ( as paranoid as you can be and still stay functional ). But even I rationalize away what really needs doing. I need to be much better hidden, and I need to cash out and disappear, only coming into town twice a month to post to the Internet and keep my supplies topped off. But I make excuses. As much as the idea appeals to me, I don’t know if I have what it takes to be that secluded and without contact. I know it needs doing, yet can’t force myself. I offend myself with my waffling. I know I should be smarter than anyone else. Perhaps I am but just lack willpower. Or perhaps going so long without testicles, their being under control of the ex-wife, made for a hormone imbalance and I’m acting all girly. Expect to hear more of my moaning and self loathing, I’m nothing if not over-analytical. But, seriously, can you think why our economic system could collapse, and our oil supplies shrink, and there NOT be a die-off?

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