GUNPOWDER AND POWER
The balance of power being altered by gunpowder, and then by
asymmetrical warfare
, is the topic of today’s discussion. I’m not
preaching to the choir
on this one, but as with any new subject I become interested in, more like opening the floor for discussion. I have no answers, but I think at this stage it is possible to ask new questions that might lead to some answers. Why is this important? Because the political make up of post-apocalypse societies effects us all ( assuming we live that long ). If, to my thinking, the most likely leadership to emerge is going to be feudal in nature, we need to figure out if that is a natural path or if somehow gunpowder will prevent that from happening.
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The first question that comes to mind is, if gunpowder enables individuals to gain their freedom, why did monarchies survive for three hundred years? Because gunpowder needs industrial amounts of nitrates from fertilizers. And if a king had the good fortune to happen upon a source of naturally occurring nitrates he could invade/occupy, the
monarchy
was strengthened. Centralized power was possible and even foreordained at that point. And, if wood was needed to
fabricate steel
, controlling forests in effect controlled the process of rifle production. Here were two great ways the Crown controlled gun use. Now, another nifty way was to control the infrastructure. The king controlled the land which controlled food production which fed everyone. How many rebellions got started without the food to feed the fighters? Control the food and it doesn’t matter the weapons. So why did the kings finally get overthrown?
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The
Czars
ruled through the early part of 1900. What was that, four hundred years or so after
gunpowder infantry 
started to predominate? In fact, monarchies never gave way but merely changed from being hereditary to committee appointed and from kings to commissars. Dictatorships never went away. Land as the basis of wealth slowly but surely vanished, and with it a feudal structure. But absolute rule over the common people never stopped, even far after smokeless powder arms predominated. Personal arms becoming less brutal to use and more accurate never altered the balance of power between rulers and the ruled. What I propose changed was that agriculture turning to oil alone for creation. Once food stopped being decentralized, it entered the same vulnerability that factories had earlier. Since sabotage was now easy and possible by single individuals, the central powers had to, in effect, bribe off the enemy. When factories came to dominate, workers were given a bigger piece of the profit, and
slavery
was abolished. When agriculture went to a factory system fueled by oil, the potential saboteurs ( one guy can wreck the pipeline feeding the natural gas to the fertilizer plant or destroy the combine reaping thousands of bushels ) had to be bought off and bribed. We pretty much started feeding the worlds poor to keep and retain our
Empire
( if you think our inability to continue to bribe them doesn’t mean our empire is over-it’s all over but the fat lady singing- then you ain’t paying attention ). Before, we had plenty of jockeying for position, but nobody seriously screwed with the infrastructure that feed them ( the African oil pipeline attacks are a further indication how the old regime is broken ).
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There has been asymmetrical warfare as long as there has been warfare. I would like to propose, as a working theory, that the only reason it has been so successful recently is not because of
modern infantry weapons
, but the fact that the participants were getting a free ride off of America’s program of feeding the world ( no, we don’t feed a billion Chinese or even more Indians- I’m saying that a large portion of the globes population was made possible by the corn surplus we used to puke out in ungodly amounts ). We subsidized the ability of guerrillas to fight without the historic burden of needing to grow their own food. I think that all other factors aside ( our WWII victory, our industrial lead prior to that, the dominant dollar, whatever ), this one-subsidized food- led to our global control. I understand this might be too simplistic. But it had to at least be a factor, henceforth not noted.
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America’s experiment with individual freedom and
firearm ownership
is an aberration historically. The seed was Great Britain, unable to afford to garrison their new prize ( kill the savages and an entire rich unexploited continent was enough to keep her in power for centuries ) which she fell into ass backwards, allowed militias to do her dirty work ( those pesky savages, thinking this was there home! ). Government policy allowed the individual to be armed, as a de facto free army. We didn’t “force” this right through threat. Remember, the Russian pioneers were pretty much the same, armed and allowed to kill the natives to farm the land. In the end, they didn’t stay armed and we did, but today we can all be killed by the control over food. Regardless of our weapons. Because only the centralized state can feed us. You could put a squad automatic machinegun in every home and as long as the empire fed us, we wouldn’t revolt. We will revolt, with AR-15’s or just pitchforks and torches, if the food flow in disrupted. We are fed and entertained, and make no mistake, the Right To Bear Arms is just entertainment for a lot of us as we puff out our chests and pretend to be free. The
bread and circuses
insure we are bribed and bought off. Individual freedom and our mighty invulnerability due to personal firearms is a great myth, I’ve enjoyed it myself, but it simply ain’t true. Oh, how I relish the coming wounded howls and spit flying arguments. Bring it on! Just bring logic, rather than emotion, please. I think my basic points are sound, but I do welcome constructive criticism of points I’ve fumbled or overlooked. Peace.
END
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10 comments:
We could have a commodities based feudal structure in our future. Our drug lords to the south serve as an example. A group naturally drawn to a functioning coal mine would have a source of power in their coal. Even an agricultural region could end up paying for protection from a local thug. We could see this happen and still be yoked by our elected extortionist in DC. I'm sure this is the situation right now in any of our poorer cities. Biker gangs, drug lords, "traditional" mafia, CEO's, we have the network of our own enslavement already in place. They are just waiting for a bit of chaos to start.
...the great silken haired one yet once again shows his wisdom and linguistic skills to prove how we are further screwed and controlled.
Anyone ready for the next stage of the "downturn" or whatever-the-f one may want to call it??
Yes, dear Bisonians, it's a comin. Sometime. In the future. But you do have now to prepare.
How, you humbly ask, prostrating yourself before the golden-mane one, in his desert junk land doomer in his glowing wisdom:
He answers thunderously:
Junk land.
Bolt rifle and corrosive ammo.
as much wheat as you can swallow and store to last several years.
No debt.
Forget quality, get quantity of cheap, as you won't be able to fix anything anyways.
It's a one way ride as the institutions, gasping for breath, collapse like a whale on a beach, under it's own sheer and ponderous weight, regardless of the amount of water poured on it to keep it cool by well-meaning bystanders.
But not to worry...the whale can be saved! Bring in the big help, tow it out to sea...and set it free (bailout part 1)..don't worry, the f-n thing swam right back up on the beach to repeat the experience this time (depression part 2) and it WILL expire this time, but it won't be pretty and it won't be quick.
Hang in there folks. the fun begins shortly.
Hey lord, this little nova mini-novel postings don't cut the mustard, just go back to daily rants, they're much better anyways.
We want more desert stories of truth, more profound wisdom, more gun porno, more nuked wheat bread of high fiber doom after processing...
-topper
One thing that you didnt list in the artical.was that an armed population kept other goverments from invading the united states since the 1850s.we didnt have to spend the money for a large standing army.since WW2 our military has been an ocuppeing force not a defence force.i guess what im saying is with our food production and self armed citizens it would be suicide for anouther goverment to wage a war on our soil.from 1945 till today all military expence has been for economics not defence.the real crisis is when there is no more economicly rich areas to justify our military?what do you think? gary in bama
Preaching to the choir? It seems like your starting a new church!
You make a good point about weaponized food...
The vietcong were fed by their people, so they could fight.
This could be the main reason (besides profit) that Mont-insano is trying to control all our food!
Those free-eating cajuns had to be stopped, hence the british-p act of war.
Those damned AMISH with their healthy milk must be stopped!
Armed raids of health food stores! (Yeah, as if them Vegetarians are freaking VIOLENT!)
Forget their guns... just starve them out!
On second thought, it's the same church, different (and new) sermon!
A gun ain't gonna help ya, if ya ain't got the strength to aim it!
Semi or Bolt? Fuck-it! The BUCKET of food has more power than either!
Good ole Jim, leader of the BUCKET BRIGADE!
1. It will be feudal in nature, because that is what survival will DEMAND. Give me an example of any democracy that has worked in the past during a catastrophe. It's going to be the main warlord and his sub-warlords. The situation will demand leaders that kick butt and get the job done.
2. Gun powder didn't have jack shit to do with it. It was the industrial revolution combined with free market capitalism that allowed the poor people to afford the tools to resist. It doesn't make any difference whether the tools were guns or telephones.
3. Your question of: How many rebellions got started with out food to feed the fighters? Just off the top of my head, how about the French revolution? Remember Marie Antoinette?
4. The Kings never did get overthrown. They came up with this great front game called democracy. It tricked the sheep into thinking they got a say in what was done. Example: Bailing out the banks, do you know anyone that wanted to bail out the banks?Bush and Clinton can both trace their ancestry back to royalty. Many others as well. Do an internet search on WHO is the biggest landowner on the planet, then do another article on how the kings were overthrown.
5. Concerning what you wrote here: There has been asymmetrical warfare as long as there has been warfare. I would like to propose, as a working theory, that the only reason it has been so successful recently is not because of modern infantry weapons[Image], but the fact that the participants were getting a free ride off of America’s program of feeding the world.*********Come on, Jim! Quit making it up as you go along. If that was true then how did the British Empire get their asses kicked in Afghanistan 1839-1842??? From Wiki: It was one of the first major conflicts during the Great Game, the 19th century competition for power and influence in Central Asia between the United Kingdom and Russia, and also marked one of the worst setbacks inflicted on British power...
6. Finally, Why and How? Why are the Afghan rebels so successful against us? Are we subsidizing them with food? Can't be corn, because all that is getting made into Ethanol so that everyone can pay 3 cents less per gallon at the pump. How? How is it possible that the Afghans still have their weapons?
Sad as it is, we will probably go down slowly. Giving democracy and the right to vote a chance to work. Which will mean that our right to weapons will be given away by the sheep. The Russians are a prime example, food being the prime motivator. As it will be here.
Keeping in mind that private ownership of weapons used to be a universal right world wide.
Then too maybe not, one only need look to Afganistan as an example. They been trying to pacify those folks for centuries...
Jim,
good post and valid points. See how your readers like this link about China having sovereign areas inside our country. http://peopleforfreedom.com/new-world-order-news/globalism/china-wants-to-construct-a-50-square-mile-self-sustaining-city-south-of-boise-idaho/ .
Sorry about the long link but its worth the read.
The American corn subsidy was meant to explain the current surge in warfare, not to explain past examples. And, the French farmers were rioting, right?
There are always low level bush wars. If there are more than the usual number of larger wars, it is because our (various) executive branch leaders are showing a lack of impulse control.
After Vietnam, we were gun shy and even the invasion of tiny Grenada was a big deal. Now if somebody even looks at us a little funny and is mean to their people we are at war with them. You know it is sad when Clinton (of all people LOL!) was the last to show any restraint (Rwanda).
Annon at 12:49. The primary reason the United States was not invaded early on was that we did not have anything of real value to take that we weren't willing to sell in any case. The Monroe Doctrine was ignored by the Europeans who would often blockade small South and Central American countries who wouldn't pay their bills. It was various accidents of history and mostly the British who kept everyone (not already there) out of the Americas. There was a lot of friction between the Germans and US even into the 20th century, with even the Americans admitting that the Germans would likely win the naval battle. IMO the Germans actually were stupid enough to go after the U.S. and probably could have done a repeat of burning Washington D.C., but they were so busy annoying everyone in China and Africa they never got around to it.
Feudalism will not (and does not) go under that name. The only 'Kings' in power will be ELECTED to their position by believers of MLK ;-/
Right now their are towns that have been run by the same families since the american revolution.
Those families must run their towns with a light hand and a nod toward consensus (aka 'democracy') because it only takes one ticked off citizen to call in the feds and dig up all the backroom deals. Without the feds (during & after the collapse) it will take only one disgruntled citizen to ----
- 1) "blow the dam" aka take down the towns prime industry/resource.
- 2) "let the rope over the wall" aka help invaders know the defenses of the town.
- 3) "call death to tyrants" aka take to sniping or seting IED's to take out key members of the power structure.
How big a nod towards democracy is going to be required will depend upon the resources available to the disgruntaled both while being disgruntled and while obeying.
Vulnerable people will be made into scapegoats and treated too harshly to be able to fight back (probably exiled or killed ASAP).
And remember that any secret police force is as much a threat to those in power as the citizens it is meant to police, and works best when they can truely be secret- in the small communities that lack of oil will force upon us it will be clearly obvious that Miss Flattrey turned in Farmer Brown - and those who are opposed to 'snitches' will have plenty of time and opportunity to shank the Miss...
No a light hand will work best and longest, a harsh one will just backfire.
Especially now that the 'ideals' of 'democracy' are so firmly in place in the western world. There wont be unelected kings again- instead their will be duly elected 'mayors' and Sherriffs, or what have you, (with few or no one running against them) and they _will_ work hard for their constituants betterment (and their own families enrichment too).
When these 'kings without the name' don't run things well, or in a manner that appears to be too draconian their region will become beset with unrest.
The communist dictators work out in modern times because they buy off the army and the peasantry - while slowly killing off only the upper and middle classes. They annonymous secret police and sintches work ok but only because Oil allows them their annonyminity such annonyminity does NOT exist in small and medium towns without easy transportation.
In a post collapse scenario the LEO's and Drug Cartel Enforcers will be the equivelant of the army. Everyone else will be the equivelent of the peasantry unless they have some awsomely usefull post collapse skill -
Programers, plastic surgeons, and paper pushers? = till the fields.
ER docs, and chemists with the ability to work from scratch purifying their own? = Court wizards.
If you can purify _massive_ amounts of water with home made charcol and solar filters, Or create excellent pain killers (with appropriate dosages), Or fix broken dishes and tools, or repair weapons and convert them to black powder, Or make a comfortable durable pair of shoes/boots, smith metal, etc, etc. you MAY be able to keep a position as a 'middle class' (what we thing of today as the working poor).
But even the wealthy will find it a harder life than now.
Being a nomadic herder as The Magnificantly Coifed One suggests does have its appeal but you had better have a herd already line up and know how to manage it NOW.
Being a Traveling 'tinker' crossed with herder would be even better.
-Grey
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