system complexity

SYSTEM COMPLEXITY


We used to live in a complex system. We still do, but that system is no longer working as it was designed to. It is in the process of breaking down. And as great as a more basic system will be for all of us, the usual way these things work is that first the complex system crashes and burns and then the survivors adopt far less complicated ways of doing things- both because they don’t have any choice in the matter and because it makes sense for a much smaller group just trying to survive. What astounds me, and what I’m desperately trying to figure here by voicing this concern, is that people agree that our complex system is incapable of continuing but then make up their minds that we will nicely survive and prosper by adopting less complexity. With all due respect to Howard Ruff, and all due disrespect ( plus an extra 10% just for spite ) to Yuppie Survivalists, there ain’t no Survive And Prosper. There might be Survive And Suffer Less In Relation To Every Other Swinging Male Member, or possibly a Survive And Become The Last One In The Stewpot, but there isn’t any prosper. This is a fairy tale that we lie to ourselves about so that we all don’t just curl up in a fetal position and soil ourselves in a bloody manner.

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There isn’t anything wrong with fantasizing. Guys do it all the time as any half way to paper sack covering required female comes across our line of site. And even the Two Baggers, if they have a suitable female part to admire, get included. If you’re a good ol boy and like fried foods, even the really fat ones are included. Hey, unlike you picky bitches, us guys don’t discriminate. We are equal opportunity procreators, which is more than you can say about FemiNazi’s who pretend to be politically correct but are really just gender discriminators and all around haters. As long as you don’t carry through with your fantasies. It is all very well and good to dream about the next door MILF, but hitting on her might get her PTSD hubby is a foul and homicidal mood. And it is well and good to fantasize about a gradual and peaceful transition to tree hugging village organic cooperatives, but ignoring the reality of Mad Max motorcycle gangs invites torture, sodomy ( be honest-is Creekmore prettier than me? ‘Cause nobody has been threatening me with sodomy and while I’d pass on the invitation it still kind of hurts my feelings ) and other unpleasantries.

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Oh, I’d never confuse fantasy and reality, you chortle merrily. Yeh? Do you still live in the city? Do you have more than a few months supply of food? Do you still have money in paper or electronic form? Do you even have ANY sense of urgency? The other day, Rawles Regulars were debating the wisdom of worrying about Yellowstone blowing ( using, if I’m not mistaken, the argument that it COULD be a lot longer before it blows on schedule. You know, because Katrina and the current Mississippi flooding adhered real well to their “100 year disaster” timeline ). They then went on with further impeccable logic arguing that missile bases being nuked were far more likely. Okay, so by that reasoning, the whole Yuppie bug out strategy is stupid because there won’t be any warning about a nuke strike. As is the whole Yuppie “slow and sure to prep as that is the only way you can afford all this crap” way of doing things. I know I’m asking a lot to use logic, but is it too much to ask you to simply stop fantasizing?

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Unlike the remote possibility of nuke strikes, our systematic collapse is already well on its way. If a complex system can only run under optimal conditions, can you argue that we are at that time and place? Energy down, credit freeze, global weather disruptions. You think they won’t undue our complex society? When weather turns bad, our system uses petroleum to ship grain globally using credit to feed the affected region. But now, all areas are being adversely hindered by drought or flooding, there is less energy to feed more people, and our economic system is floundering from the last “solution” of derivatives. We keep getting less petroleum, any surplus of grain is turned into fuel, the crop failures from weather disasters continues each year. The system of feeding ourselves is already breaking down, and we are only at the plateau of oil extracting rather than on the downside. Yet, you still act as if your job is secure, your mortgage will count for something, starving people won’t nuke us, and you have plenty of time to prepare. I’m going to pretend that you are caught in your fantasy world rather than that you are just ignorant.

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Success feeds on itself, as does failure. Systematic collapse is a self perpetuating feedback loop. It doesn’t take more than a few percent failure to crash the whole thing. All it takes is less than optimal conditions, because only under optimal conditions does everything work. Stuff Ain’t Working Optimally. We are already in collapse and only the timing is questionable. Business as usual ( banks, SUV’s, grid up, oil imports ) is no longer the option solved with extra energy inputs. Because we are in energy decrease, all other things fail. Period. You are gambling your life by not panicking now. It doesn’t take NO OIL to crash our system, it merely takes NO OIL GROWTH. We just don’t know how long that period is. Stop fantasizing the crash can be timed or endured on half assed measures ( glad you have two months of regular groceries, now you don’t have to eat all that yucky wheat- oops! What happens after two months? Time enough for your organic garden to feed you AND stop bandits from stealing from it? ). Reality sucks donkey member, get used to it.

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