Friday, July 22, 2011

american redoubt concept

AMERICAN REDOUBT CONCEPT


The Rawles led “American Redoubt” concept is certain to be popular. First, The All American Survivalist Guru, Mr. Rawles, has given his stamp of approval ( and, no, I’m not jealous. The average survivalist is a yuppie survivalist-I wish them well but can’t see eye to eye with them. Others are welcome to preach to that group. I’ll keep my 3% of gadfly’s, ne’er-do-wells, malcontents and pagans of the survivalist community ). Secondly, The Faithful can form a flock of like minded bible thumpers, so it’s like old home week at Salem. Third, most rational folks would want to move to the conservative mountain areas anyway. There is nothing wrong with this concept, except it might be a bit problematic. Foremost among the issues is geographic area. Just as in an Oil Age it makes sense to think you could smelt down a million nickels for the copper, so to is distance no obstacle. Come Oil Down, political units shrink. When transportation is no longer cheap or affordable, both in terms of energy and military control, trade stops. Countries shrink. Without trade, everything contracts. Because the population now is so great, especially in areas that can only support a very small population, the pressure on farmland will be immense. Short term, I see no way that any area can support both people and horses ( long term health wise, horses need quality feed, not weeds and scrub ). And certainly not ethanol. Trade will disappear until the population comes into equilibrium with natural farming practices.

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As trade disappears and political units shrink, no large area is going to stay cohesive. Any and all reasons will be used to distance one area from another. When it takes more energy to keep a large area than is returned by that practice, control shrinks. The Romans held a large area militarily and in terms of infrastructure because that large area returned more energy than was consumed. The American Rockies is a wonderful area to defend, and a relatively poor area to feed people from. I don’t believe that you will have enough of a surplus of food to feed the large army that will be needed for the size army you need to defend it. Now, going back to the example of Switzerland, you might presume that the mountains alone will provide the primary defense. All that would be needed would be citizen-militia. In the case of Switzerland, this is true. In the case of the American Redoubt, there are too many areas on the margins that are easily invaded. Just the eastern Oregon area itself might need to be folded into the Bisonia Great Basin Empire. But seriously, when you draw the lines on a map using mostly the old political lines, you miss geographical defensible points. Southeastern Oregon isn’t as much part of the Rockies as it is part of the Great Basin. South Idaho the same. East of Salt Lake City is part of the Rockies. The eastern part of Wyoming and Montana are plains more than mountains. I don’t doubt the areas chosen are a good idea, but I think you have to realistically shave off part of some states, eliminate others, and add slivers of some. Political lines and geographic are not the same.

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I think that including the entire state when only half is defensible is pretty much just politics. You expand the eligible area to get more settlers. But guess what? When the American Redoubt shrinks, as it must, to defend itself, those settlers are left to fend for themselves. Or they present a immigrant issue. And that just assumes the area doesn’t fragment and fight amongst itself, especially along water control lines as the global weathers gets screwier and snow packs shrink. And I would bet a good part of a paycheck that all those good ol Christian folk will start feuding like they were Papists and Protestants. The real issue will be food and water, but religion will be the excuse. So, after the collapse, your Galt’s Gulch will shrink, fragment and fight. Pre-collapse, I can’t see political unity. The Federal control, until actual civil war and financial collapse, will tighten. Yes, being in a nice political unit that is more prone to recognize individual rights, will be nice come independence. Before that, however, it makes you more of a target. The feds will be the hammer pounding on those nails that stick up. And did I mention that all your buddies will congregate in isolated areas with present employment. Again, long term, great. But that in itself works against the whole multi-state unity. Politics will stay local now, even before trade vanishes.

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I’m not arguing against this concept. It actually sounds far more feasible than the fools in Wyoming thinking their state will fight for its independence ( spokesman Boston T Party ). Pure militia porn ignoring geopolitics and Resource Decline. What I am saying is that to even consider being viable, the area needs to shrink. Lose Oregon, perhaps Washington, southern Idaho, etc. Even then, as we crash hard after oil, the area might fragment. But with its current size it certainly will. Redraw the lines purely geologically and ignore current state political boundaries. Under the current structure, states only have so much say under their Federal masters. As we crash, lines will be redrawn along resources, and defensive lines. If you are thinking of moving there, beware being on the wrong side of those lines. You will get left behind. A good starting concept. Can we redraw the maps a little better, though?

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On to other things, MZ Williamson stirred up a hornets nest by trash talking the Garand rifle.

http://www.michaelzwilliamson.com/blog/item/the-garand--almost-as-good-as-a-real-rifle

Hey, I agree with him that the loading system is stupid. Yes, you can manage to load the thing without taking off a finger, with practice. But that never should have been part of the rifles design. Having said that, I’d wager my life with a Garand WAAAAAYYYY before I’d trust that hunk of vile Shiite the M-16. Great weight, great recoil, sucks huge donkey member on everything else, including a very important consideration like jamming. Okay, so I used the first generation of the carbine in the service. But, just as with Williamsons description of the Garand- you can tweek it and do work arounds, but the design is basically flawed. I think he has an unnatural attraction to his favorite plastic dildo. Apply the same logic to each rifle, and I’ll be happy. Happier than I was with his last book, which sucked. Almost a carbon copy of the one before that. He must have been spending too much time molesting his M-16. Hey, I loved his books. I would pay full price and buy each one ( the sci-fi’s anyway ) as they came out. Even in hardback, and as all you know I’m usually too frugal to do that with just anyone’s books. That is my highest compliment to an author. But his last book sucked. I’m sorry, I can’t sugar coat it. If you can do a Stephen Hunter turn around, I’ll forgive him. Otherwise…

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16 comments:

Anonymous said...

The concept of "like-minded people" all moving to a particular region to provide a cohesive, large, survival network sounds good at first glance, but I don't buy two "people-based" notions that Mr. Rawles bases this on. I think it goes beyond just the agriculture and defense issues.

First, as you point out, just because people initially all see themselves as Christians cut from similar cloth means nothing. People find things to disagree about. There are stories of Amish clans living close by that have multi-generation splits based on some obscure bit of doctrine. Second, Rawles seems to believe that all devout Christians will act in humane, ethical ways come collapse but non-Christians will have no moral compass and be untrustworthy. This does not line up at all with my life experience. Ethics and trustworthiness have little to do with religiosity. Devout people simply find their own set of excuses to justify their actions, just like everyone else.

Finally, as intriguing as his American Redoubt concept is, I don't think there are all that many people ready to pull up stakes and move there just because Mr. Rawles suggests this. The survivalist crowd is pretty small, and the number who will pull up stakes and move based on some posting on a web site has got to be really tiny. He has a well run web site and some good info on there from time-to-time, but even the biggest prepping/survivalist web site is pretty small potatoes in the larger societal context.

dennis said...

The whole redoubt concepts hinges on the idea these states will politically support individual rights. That small government is the way to go. In the light of day we will see this as just more bull. Idaho is just a few bucks shy of being a socialist state. Of course they rant against it, but they are riddled with the nuisance laws so common today. The bottom line is anything for the money men. They spout the no helmet law like it is a sacred right, but ticket you for driving with out a seat belt. The famous one is the canoeist who found a dead body that had fallen from the bridge getting a ticket for no life vest. Great job LEO. The "Great" Redoubt will turn fascist so fast you will wish you buried your guns and hid your daughters in the sagebrush!

Anonymous said...

Everything could end up shaking out to be what it was before the Pale Face "discovered" America. Tribes with territories about the size the Indians had before we got here.

Many tribes, many territories. Each one unique. A whole lot of war between the tribes also. Men will be men once again. Lots of red meat and submissive women.

I'd get a horse to practice on now, Jim. So you won't embarrass yourself in front of the squaws later.

And forget about 'quality feed'. That's for work horses pulling plows and racing thoroughbreds. Horses need your help to survive less than you think. I believe Nevada has more than a few of 'em running wild.

You could also get a head-start by getting yourself a Sioux squaw from South Dakota ASAP. They are all over, very available and not bad looking at all. I've met a few that will beat the hell out of you if you come home drunk oftener than neccessary though. But it's rare for them to kill you while you sleep.

WWJDD said...

You know, I've doubted that Rawles concept since I first read about it... but now I REdoubt it!

But my reasons are different - even though you bring up some good points...

I think the redoubt "plan" is a RUSE to get rich dupes to move out there with their stash of 223 ammo!

Then the rawlesians will roadblock (they like doing that!) and rob them, "For the children!" Or simply use them for cannon fodder.

Since the leaders have the hardest-to access-lands, the newbies will be their moat.

russell1200 said...

Unless you somehow have the food and fuel, armies aren't going to be marching around a whole lot.

If you read Rommel and Caporetto, you will see that the defensiblity of mountainous terrain, in small unit actions, has its limitations.

http://www.amazon.com/ROMMEL-CAPORETTO-John-Wilks/dp/0850527724

The big advantage is that the intruder is usually going to have to bring their supplies with them. So you hole up in your little cul-de-sac (presumably with its own spring) and fend them off until they run out of food.

You just have to hope that it isn't Rommel Jr. coming after you, or that they don't have some sort of heavy weapons.

Anonymous said...

Instead of horses, maybe mules or donkeys? They are a tough breed and can live on open range more 'desert' in nature.

Might be something to look into anyway.

Jennie said...

:-D
hahahah
Stuff Rawles and his Redoubt shit.
This pagan is staying in rural Iowa.
Not that I would be welcome in their new xtian utopia anyway, but who wants to live with people who have such long lists of "others-who-should-be-hated-and-are-not-welcome"?

I hope they all starve and have to eat their bibles to survive. Or, freeze and have to burn them to keep warm.

My full thoughts can be found here, if anyone's interested: http://myfreedompath.blogspot.com/2011/07/american-redoubt.html

Anonymous said...

Sounds like Rawles is trying to start his own country in the northwest by building his army from all of his AR-15 armed blog readers. His self-importance is that big don't see how he makes it into his bunker without his head getting caught in the doorway.

Anonymous said...

Now,,let me guess,,,the sincere Mr. Rawles will be happy to lead the new republc in his area. Hmmmm, sounds a lot like I'm the most prepared and should get the first choice of food and women. History has proven that the leadership in a crisis always goes to the most persistently ruthless militarily. Your gun better be bigger then mine and you better be prepared to slaughter anyone to survive. If not I will be making you my bitch and chowing down on your food. REMEMBER LAST ONE IN STEWPOT WINS...

Lamb said...

No horses, no donkeys...get GOATS! Goats can pull carts, pull plows and be used as pack animals. They also give milk, have wonderfully tender meat and make good companion animals. My goats give enough milk for my family and for trade/barter without it being TOO much as it would be with a milk cow. They reproduce faster than cows, can browse on scrub brush and poor pasture and still fatten up. They are fine in deserts, in mountainous areas, etc.Very adaptable animals, no matter what the terrain, climate or geographical area. Not as fancy as a horse or donkey, but sturdy useful animals, to be sure!

Rottenclam said...

I think the concept of the American Redoubt is a good one...if you fit the profile of the type of guy or gal that they all want to see over there.

If you're gay, an atheist, a strong-minded woman that is not 100% supplicant to her husband, or maybe even slightly colorful from a dermatological perspective - the Redoubt may not be a bed of roses.

I'm none of those things listed above, but I certainly dont want to live with a bunch of people that are less than intolerant of folks cut from the cloth mentioned above.

Also, I've been through all of the Redoubt states (and specifically, the regions that Rawles cites), and I've been to many of the towns that Rawles talks about (Lewiston, Kalispell, etc). My main issue is how damned cold it gets there.

I'm all for people grouping up with other like-minded folks, but I prefer to keep life more interesting (with some very different people around me)...oh, and I like it a bit warmer too.

As for Williamson's indictment of the Garand, I was not that phased. However, when he started clowning the M14 / M1A, I had to cry myself to sleep that night.

I'm trying to get the M1A to be the official State Gun of California in 2012, so his words stung. :(

blindshooter said...

I've thought about horses in the first part of the coming downturn and I believe they will be eaten by the hungry illegals and poor rednecks in my area. The illegals may be smart enough to leave with the when the economy fails so the hosses may just be BBQ for redneck unemployed. I think I can eat horse. Can't be much worse than road kill raccoon. I can't afford to drive to work much less think about moving across the US so the redoubt idea goes right by me. Also I don't get the guy picking on the Garand, it was designed in what the early 1930's? I managed to shoot one in HP rifle comp without losing any fingers or even hurting one.

Good post, thank you.

Anonymous said...

Of course Rawles wants to be the leader of his very on Republic of "Rawlesia" that is obvious with this redoubt thing. Wonder what he will order his followers to those who don't agree with his religious beliefs. Sadly, I think his novel has the answer to that question.

Tom said...

Well, shit. Considering the type of people I see attracted to Rawles, I think I'd rather live in Vermont with a punch of libertarian hippies, pagans, and atheists who are genuinely decent people than deal with a bunch of usually hypocritical "Christians". Hell, I wouldn't even mind a Catholic family as neighbors provided they behaved in an ethical manner. Bonus points if they are a bunch of swarthy Mediterraneans who know stone-masonry and wine-making. Grappa anyone?

As far as the M1 Garand is concerned, it's reliable, accurate, and shoots .30-06 ammo. What's the problem, here? Seriously, when those 150 grain pieces of copper-coated lead are whizzing at you at Mach One, you're probably going to be more interested in avoiding occupying the same point of time and space as them then giving the guy sending them your way a dissertation as to how badly his rifle sucks. It only takes one .30 caliber round in the right place to ruin your day. A Garand has eight of them.

Oh, that's right. You're going to need an AR-15 with its weight of accessories attached to every length of Picatinny rail available and a hundred beta-mags to fight off the Zombie hordes after the great apocalypse when planet Nibru parks itself in geosynchronous orbit and the space aliens come to steal your women and rape your horses. And don't forget the 100000000000000 rounds of ammo to go with it.

And if you're only armed with an M1 Garand, or God forbid, a Mauser or Lee Enfield, then baby Jesus will hate you because you didn't listen to Rawles and the zombies will come and eat your brains after the space aliens are done probing you.

I hate it when that happens.

Anonymous said...

The die off of civilized western europeans and americans of european descent is already well underway.
Just look at the demographic statistics.
Most 'white' people are over the age of 40 or so, and most baby boomers are ready to retire- since retirement will soon be a non-option, they will either work themselves to death, or die of poverty.
The problem is the child medical care for the third world children- after millenia of needing a dozen children in order to have 2-3 grow to adulthood, and modern medicine providing 10 survivors instead, the cultural norms havent changed as quickly as the survival rate.

SO- we have the up swing in 'poor' population peoples, matched with the begining of a down swing in middle class population peoples.
And this is just the demographics, not even mentioning the economic effects.

BUT the up swing in poor peoples has almost halted due to the fact their cultures are starting to change--- Abortion is available world wide now, as is sex testing unborn feutus's. So the mothers are choosing to birth boys (first and sometimes only). Meaning developing nations are becoming overloaded with young males- and insufficent females.

It doesnt matter if, or how the young male surplus kills itself off, it will do so.
It doesnt matter if the old fart surplus dies of diabetes or of working themselves to death, they will do so.
Both these downward pressures will hit around the same 2 - 20 year time frame. Starting in 2006.

The only question is how many other people will it drag down, how many people will be left, and will we be able to hold on to any science and technology for a future 'renessance'?

-Grey

Anonymous said...

Rawles ate my baby.