Sunday, August 21, 2011

you call that inflation?

YOU CALL THAT INFLATION?


Wow! If you want a little perspective, go to the following page:

http://inflation.us/charts.html

If you compare prices in 1975 and 1980, the inflation we are seeing now is sad, pathetic, uneventful, and no reason to get worked up. What should get you all worked up is how much higher our inflation could go, based on our own history with oil disruptions. And keep in mind that this is with only a single digit decrease in the supply of imported oil, when we were still producing more of our own. And still far and away from hyper-inflation. Now, nothing in life in simple. Or, I should say, fundamentals are simple but no one thing causes events. You had the Hunt brothers trying to corner silver, we went off the gold standard, the Vietnam war both strained our economy and then hurt it as the defense spending stopped. We had our own Peak Oil event which suddenly started sucking money out of the economy. The Arabs played around with “our” oil supply. We started exporting our manufacturing in response to all this. Our farms were in transition from decentralized to mega-corporate owned. And many more. Everything had its effects on our inflation ( which was both commodity driven and supply distorted ).

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Our economy has mostly been fueled by cheap and abundant oil, and obviously the 70’s/80’s pain and the 90’s growth was based on that ( suddenly less earlier, then a glut as Alaska and the North Sea were joined by Russia flooding the market- unfortunately this was a one off event and can’t be duplicated, much to the chagrin of Frac Fantasists, Artic Circle Jerk-Offs and Room Temperature Tards ). Now here is something I’ve been mulling over, and while I don’t have definite answers, the question itself is fascinating. Did large conventional wars bankrupt the last two empires? Was it just as responsible as Peak Oil for crashing the leading powers? If both World Wars were about control of oil ( the middle east oil railroad built by Germany, almost, and its role in WWI is fascinating- see “A Century Of War” ), and our petroleum dominance won us the war, wouldn’t losing that dominance militarily spell our defeat? And isn’t the Soviet economy pretty much a mirror of ours, Texas style big ( they control it through communism, ours is through fascism )? It wasn’t very long at all from the date we hit peak oil to our pull out of Vietnam, our last conventional mechanized war ( our current wars are microchip wars, even if they do use a lot of petroleum- and I’d wager Iraq oil is supplying that, even if we are told it is left in-ground from infrastructure damage ). And the Soviets hit their peak and soon after left Afghanistan. The difference in survival rates was that we had the global currency controlled. Just food for thought.

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Adjusted for inflation, the 1980 ( I’m just using approximate dates here, the charts listed above will fill in the details ) price of oil was over $100. Which would make today’s oil priced at $38. Meaning that it would take oil at over $300 a barrel to equal the historic high price. And in case you are confused at what the radio idiots tell you and what I’m quoting, those charts have three numbers. Reported numbers, numbers adjusted for inflation using the official rate, and numbers using the “shadow stats” web site adjustment for inflation. The last one is the highest, by far. Among other things, it doesn’t take food and energy out of the equation. Perhaps $38 oil would explain why commodity inflation is no where near as high as it should be after all the quantitative easing.

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Adjust gold for inflation and that all time record of $800 is actually $6,000. Yes, six grand. So today’s $1800 must triple to get even close to the 1980 high. Those calling for $2k gold think they are pretty brilliant, but that seems like just a rounding error using the above as a base. Remember, $6k gold was a reaction of the dollar free floating and a slight disruption of oil. Today, not only is the dollar backed by nothing more than bribing the Saudi family with protection, that can easily end come peasant revolt. And, speaking of which, the Syria fighting going on right now is so vicious because the government, comprised of a small population minority, can’t give up its power without committing suicide, literally. But the Syrians are masters of genocide to keep power. Compared to them, the Saudi’s are pathetic pussy’s. They won’t stand much of a chance come the time.

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Now comes the fun part. 1975 was the year of peak grain prices ( I’m too young to remember why ). In inflation adjusted prices, corn was $10 a bushel back then. And only $2 now ( and that is priced AFTER the ethanol fiasco was well under way ). But wheat, the staff of life everywhere but where shifty Oriental commies stuff rice into their pie-holes, was far worse. Inflation adjusted it was $25 a bushel. Now, a mere $4. Holy mother of God! Bread could easily go up another six fold!! If you are all whiny and complaining about how expensive it is now to stockpile a years worth of wheat, at a mere $100, how does $600 per person, just for grain, sound to you? Buy your wheat now, you pathetic shiftless turd. How much more of a break do you need? It is only going up. My God, I’m talking to myself here. No one is bothering to listen. Oh, my, a fiction story, lets go over the Bison. My traffic spikes up to 30%. I prove how we are all going to die, everyone wanders off to visit Randy Farm Animals Dot Com.

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You call today’s economy inflationary? You ain’t seen real inflation for decades. Get ready, bitches. Inflation can easily get a lot worse.

END
The Official Bison Web Site http://www.bisonpress.com/

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My e-mail is jimd303@netzero.com
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9 comments:

PioneerPreppy said...

I think you missed the most important chart. Close to the bottom was the average overall worth of Americans which has decreased to the point that todays inflation hits harder per household. Globalization and the dollars overall value is causing inflation to actually pack more punch per penny than in 1980.

Anonymous said...

I would get all worked up and panic, but I just ran 6 miles. A SI swimsuit model couldn't get me excited right now. I'll panic tomorrow.

The deer corn is in a lot of the stores now around here; less than $10 and you can get 50lbs. of feed corn.

Anonymous said...

Maybe to compare what % of income goes to food and energy is a good metric when comparing today and the 1970's.

Anonymous said...

Excellent article Lord B. Some of us listen. Mormon cannery here I come!

WEIMAR REPUBLIC V2 APPROACHING BITCHEZ!

Hail Darwin

chinasyndrome said...

Randy Goat porn. com was down,so I stopped by. Quit whining I listened thanks to you Ihave wheat and grinders!And it was good fiction!

China
III

Anonymous said...

I know you wont see this till Monday but it looks like Quadaffi is firmly being pushed out the door (and onto the gallows),
and based on your reported prices there is absolutely no better time to buy preps of most sorts (food, silver, medicines, etc) HOWEVER the price of Firearms still keeps outpacing that of inflation, and has been for as long as I cared to think about it. Do you have any insight into WHY guns (and ammo) keep getting so much more expensive, it surely cant just be supply and demand, can it?

-Grey

Anonymous said...

Just remember--everything is relative.

What would 1980 wages look like if they were adjusted for inflation?

Idaho Homesteader

Anonymous said...

Hello Bison, haven't had a chance to go online for days - gotta earn a living and the past two weeks have been 10-12 hour days.

You are definately not talking to yourself on this blog...yes, the fiction story was good, however you do make a lot of sense between verbally abusing the minions.

I recently read that the rice harvest is almost ready in Japan and the Japanese are hoarding the old rice so as to not be forced to buy/eat the radiated stuff - so...yesterday purchased 100Kgs of rice ($AU13.98 p/10kg bag), plus other items such as chicken gravy powder, 7kg box of dried mashed potato, and 25Kgs baking flour, etc.

Spent most of today vacuum sealing the stuff, and will finish mylar bagging and vacuum sealing the rest tomorrow.

So, keep reminding us regularly about getting our preps in order...Cheers.

Old Timer from Down Under.

Rottenclam said...

Bring on the goats wearing garter belts!