affordable war

AFFORDABLE WAR



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Being your intrepid man of the hour on the spot Johnny globe spanning news analysis super dude, I joyfully tread where most others fear. While most tremble in fear, blathering uselessly about professional reputations and spot checking their facts, I manfully charge ahead and tell you what you need to know. Okay, sure, most of my theories are tinged and contaminated with paranoia and fear. But while I’m usually wrong in my timing, I’m rarely wrong in my underlying trend pattern. Today, I’d like to talk about Obammy and his claim that all but 600 troops will be pulled out of Iraq by the end of the year. Let’s take this at face value, assume he is not lying to us once again like the fuzzy foreigner that he is, not trying to weaken us so that his Allah praying buddies can kick our ass. Okay, I’m kidding about the Muslim part. He is a whore for the central bank, not any religion ( I’m pretty confident about his being a foreigner- remember our discussion about his being greenmailed to do the bankers bidding? ). The question that is critical here is, why are we pulling out? Because the motivation is very, very important. If it is politics, little harm done. If it reflects undisclosed oil reserve shenanigans, it might be a problem. If it is more about our ability to police the country, we might have a serious problem on our hands.

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If anyone is going to try to tell me, with a straight face, that Obammy is just doing this to try to get reelected, I will scream like a little bitch in a high falsetto and point a quivering finger in their direction, implore this devil to get behind me ( what is the deal with demanding the devil to “get behind me”? So you can’t see him and thus not be tempted? Myself, I’d worry that he would try to mount and sodimize me ) and in general make a spectacle of myself. Oh, my overly trusting friend, can’t we all agree that in politics, the money men change the tune? If the money men don’t want you to change strategic course, it doesn’t happen. If the money men don’t want you elected or reelected, it isn’t going to happen. It really makes my smile so wide the gaps between my teeth are revealed ( I’m not overly sensitive about my appearance outside being scrubbed and cleaned up a bit, but I already ride a bike, giving the illusion of a habitual drunk with no drivers license, so I don’t want to lose any front teeth which would add “crackhead” to my fictitious resume ) that you still believe in free and fair elections and the Easter Bunny. Do you also believe in democracy and Santa Claus? If you can’t even begin to question the basic propaganda that is spit out at grade school level, I fear this is not the place for you to be. I hear Glen Beck has a really popular site.

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Let me simplify this. We went into Iraq for the oil. Why would we then leave it? Not on a stupid pretence such as one of the worst presidents outside Grant or Carter wanted another term in office. Oil is the economy, it is the military. Obammy would be assassinated before he was allowed to weaken either. Obviously, he was told to withdraw the troops. So, why? If it isn’t to get reelected, that leaves two possibilities. One, there really isn’t as much oil there as we thought, or the oil infrastructure is too damaged to replace. Or, more ominously, we simply can’t afford to be there any longer. Let’s examine the first. We just got done dinking around in Libya, most likely to keep the Europeans in oil so that their economy doesn’t freefall so fast, and Libya has less oil that Iraq, so why would we suddenly give up on it? The reserves could be overestimated, a common occurrence throughout the middle east. But surely if that was the case they would still have more than Libya, right? Or, it is simply the case that between our blundering about with high ordinance Shocking and Aweing and then the continual low level intensity guerrilla attacks as tribes fought each other to control the resource, the infrastructure is simply too shot to Shitte to be useful? You would think if this was the case, then we would have known it a long time ago. If it was true, you would have thought Obammy could have stopped the occupation years ago. Now, granted, this is all conjecture. I have about 1% of the needed facts. But going with what I know, I have to conclude we are left with only one alternative, that we are so dead ass broke we can’t fund the occupation anymore.

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As a minion more versed in history pointed out to me, looking back at the Romans you saw a mere one year gap between an occupying force and its sudden withdrawal due to finances. It doesn’t matter how vital or strategic a force is, if the treasury can’t fund it, the troops are sent home. And, no, you can’t send home German or Korean occupiers and get the same savings. Those two forces are in a peacetime occupation, and their cost is within the budget. The Iraq occupation is largely outside the regular defense budget and it is a hot, wartime occupation. More and more of our federal money and new debt creation is going towards trying to stabilize the global economy ( we are hiding the Eurozone bailout rather well, but you can bet dollars are pouring in at a pace to make AIG look like a warm up exercise ). Look, almost two years ago when the economy started shrinking and taxes fell, our cost on the federal level to pay the interest on our debt went from twelve to twenty percent. As tax revenue declines, we are borrowing 40% of our daily federal budget. How much is our interest payments now? 30%? 35%? We are rapidly borrowing more and more just to keep the federal government functioning, and less and less of it can be earmarked for social spending or defense spending if more and more is going towards interest payments.

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How bad are things financially if we have to give up occupying Iraq? Supposedly, it was the third largest oil reserves globally. Are things falling apart so fast financially that we can’t hold on to that plum ( and why give it up and not Afghanistan? )? Now, to be fair, there is one other possibility although I don’t know how feasible it is. Are we going to get into another war before Christmas and we are going to shift the troops from Iraq to that theatre? If we didn’t need them in Iraq anymore because officially we were ending the occupation, it would leave a large number available. I like this scenario if only because it means the financial house of cards isn’t tumbling and I want another year to get the New And Improved Bison Underground Hovel finished. But then, who would we be interested in fighting and occupying? Saudi Arabia? Is that feasible? It would mean jumping from a marginal oil producer to the juiciest prize, even if they are in production decline. I just wonder if that would escalate other countries involvement, as they are the direct buyers of Saudi oil and have no replacement country. Not sure on that one. But we can all agree that the Iraq draw down is posing a lot of important unanswered questions.

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