TECTONIC PLATE THEORY
A loyal minion wrote in regards to my comment that peak oil non-believers believed in a conspiracy theory when they believed that the oil companies were not pumping a gabizillion barrels of oil to keep the price up, and that believing in those theories conveniently did away with needing proof. Well, I can’t fault his logic when he asked me if I could prove peak oil was indeed a fact. Yes, I could go on and on year after year giving reasons why it was happening, but I have to admit that all I am doing here is proving something like tectonic plate theory. Because you can’t prove theories of this sort, can you? You can fit all the pieces together much more conveniently than you could with the old theory it replaced, but that isn’t proof. It is a more logical approach to explaining things, but it isn’t proof. It won’t be the last theory to come along, either. In a year or a hundred, someone will come up with a much more logical idea and then everyone that held up the older theory looks like idiots. Now, I’m not saying that I disbelieve Peak Oil theory. Not at all. I still won’t buy another car, I’ll still build underground to try to do away with fossil fuel heat. I’ll still consider the end being pretty darn near. And I’ll still use declining oil as a barometer to explain things like economics and politics and such. To me, it is fact rather than theory. But to fail to acknowledge that to most people God is fact because they believe and that to me Peak Oil is fact because I believe would be hypocritical. You can’t make fun of someone being a dumbass if you can’t stand looking in the mirror ( I’m not judging religious belief. To each his own and more power to them ).
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Now, since we can all agree that Peak Oil could be the end of us all, or that could just be a theory I’m using after I bought into a mass delusion, why should you listen to me as I panic? If Peak Oil is a theory and you don’t believe, why should you spend money getting ready for the end of civilization? Well, remember, we’ve been down this road before. I had never heard of Hubbert or Peak Oil while I was busy getting ready for Y2K. I sure enough believed in the theory of Y2K, because it sounded plausible and it had a decent probability of happening. But I wasn’t discouraged when it didn’t happen, and eagerly embraced the next big scare. I don’t actually WANT this crap to happen. I know my luck, and it would include sexual degradation and torture prior to being put in the stewpot. That crap doesn’t sound very fun at all. I’m glad Y2K didn’t occur, and I’d be relieved if Peak Oil is a dud also. But being prepared for the worse is just common sense. If it doers happen, you are covered. If it doesn’t, you still have oodles and gobs of prep supplies that were cheaper than what you can buy in ten years ( not to mention the unknown future availability issue ). Which then brings us to the issue of why I even bother to cover likely catastrophes if you should just assume the worse anyway.
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I’m here mainly for entertainment. Yes, there will always be a nugget of profound wisdom scattered here and there, so it always pays to tune in. But the other 90% is going to be entertainment. You can’t actually run a daily blog without repeats, blather and entertainment. Nobody is good enough to deliver pure usefulness to survivalist
veterans day after day. To newbies, perhaps, but that will only last just so long before they’ve heard it all before. Theorizing about how the world is going to end is fun, pure and simple. Hey, I’m not allowed to kill my enemies for fun, so this is what is left. You should take pretty much everything you hear and read with a grain of salt. Be prepared to believe, but also be prepared to disbelieve what you used to believe. It’s called wisdom, right? The cause isn’t as important as the insurance you are buying for it. You certainly don’t want that unseen big ass Black Swan to run you over when you aren’t looking.
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Enough navel gazing on that topic. Next up, a fun filled look at the Post Office. Their latest plan to save money is to close up to half of their distribution centers, so a first class letter is going to take longer to get to you. To me, it boils down to substituting burning more fuel to replace labor and rent. That works great now, until fuel gets really expensive again. Then what do they do? You already are sending a letter whose destination is ten miles away to a center that is three hundred miles away, and back. What is your next move? Most of the trouble the Post Office seems to be having isn’t necessarily lack of business because of e-mail and what not, but the fact that they are being “forced” to actually fund their pension obligations. Can you imagine if the rest of the country, the corporations and the counties, cities and states, had to do the same? All economic activity would grind to a halt. I wonder if the Obammy Health Plan has anything to do with allowing small governments and big corporations to default on their health care obligations and transfer it to the retirees backs ( and current workers, obviously ). Something to chew on. It sounds good to me so I hope that someone doesn’t piss on my paranoid theory like they did with the “House” TV show one ( I’m not disagreeing with the premise that was presented, I’m just moaning that my conspiracy theory was shot down so quickly and easily. No fun there ).
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My e-mail is jimd303@netzero.com
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7 comments:
When trying to sell TSHTF to various folks I invariably use the insurance analogy. I tell them, “you buy insurance, don’t you?” to try to convince them to prepare – even if in a mediocre way. Plus I tell them, unlike conventional insurance policies, YOU DON’T LOSE THE MONEY YOU PUT INTO PREPPING. And still….
Y2K actually came alot closer to being a real problem than many people are aware. Literally it took months of frantic work by people who were terrified of the potential results to create the upgrades to water it down. This was doable because it involved software being modified, as opposed to hardware and could be sent out over the web and via disc. For five years after year 2000 there was an increase in explosions and fires at chemical plants and refineries. Water treatment plants do not use chemicals that explode readily so we have no idea how many problems they had over the same time frame. Yet there were several effluent discharges that did occur. We managed to skate past the thin ice of Y2K and in no way does it mean that those of us who prepped in case of it were foolish, just lucky. Today's situation is not just one big event that can bring us down. It is a combination of potential black swans. Decreasing resources, not just oil but almost everything needed for our tech world is not a theory. The overextended and tottering economy is not a theory. Soil depletion is not a theory. The unraveling of the fabric of society is not a theory. I read your blog not for your so-called pearls of wisdom, although you do occasionally make a point that I have to nod my head at and mutter "Dayymm" but because you are actually living what you preach and are sometimes amusing to peruse. You may be some crazy nut living in the high desert, but you are living the life which will probably greet us all in the near future. And it gives you a leg up for that life. -SemperFido
Arguing to someone about Peak Oil as a Theory is like arguing with someone on the punctured Titanic who says "Water? What water? Prove to me that I'm in danger of dying?"
Love the insurance analogy. Will use it, thanks. I have by my frequent prepping prosletizing moved only one acquaintance in the last two years to do some prepping. Very frustrating. They mostly think I am an intelligent mad man. I just told my brother-in-law not to plan on coming to my homestead if the SHTF (as he says he plans to do). I don't think he believes me that I would drive him off even if I had to tie up his sister (Mrs. SurvivorDan) first.
And master makes a good point when he states, "I’d be relieved if Peak Oil is a dud also." I have often told my smiling, amused detractors that I really hope TEOTWAWKI doesn't happen. I stress a less overall catastrophe like a big earthquake or hurricane. But they just smile and pretend to agree and go on buying X-boxes and such.I knew dopes in the army who laughed at my paranoia but some paid with their lives. Yeah it's all a theory.....'till it comes and kills you. Survivordan
here's the thing; Peak oil must be real because there is not an infinite supply of oil. But that's where the agreement on these issues ends. Every well drilled since oil was first found that went "dry" probably only gave up 10% to 25% of the oil that was there. If tomorrow someone discovered how to extract the remaining 90% then all the peak oil predictions are useless. Then there is the undiscovered oil and the oil that is too deep for current techniques, etc. Sooner or later we will absolutely run out of oil it is the when that is unknowable.
Putting money into some good preps is a whole lot better than piss fartin around putting money into the stock market. I cannot believe people are still doing that as it revolves around the rumors that'maybe' the banks and money lenders have reformed in their infinite love for all mankind.and of course, the government is watching out for our safety dammit.
Great article, His hairness.
I agree that there is a strong streak of entertainment in your content, and that many of the others out there just rehash the same things; or worse, they turn over the reigns to idiots or bad interviews for content.
Whenever Rawles writes real content on his site, it is usually pretty good. At least 50% of his "reader generated" content is garbage.
Whenever Creekmore writes real content on his site, it is also quite good. When his readers comment, that is good too. But when he started turning over the content to the readers, it turned into 80% garbage.
Finally, Jack Spirko at TSP is awesome, but now he is falling back on interviews all the time. They're not necessarily garbage, but I like Jack's ravings (he is a more optimistic and benevolent version of Bison).
You, Lord Hairpiece,seem to be in it for the long haul - falling back on nobody except yourself. Sure, you'll take user content all day long, but the readers over here are definitely the savage fringe of the survivalist movement, and we all know that our content will never compare to yours.
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